During multi-year periods
when valuation multiples expand and growth stocks are in favor, it seems clear that we will struggle to keep pace with the market.
During multi-year periods
when valuation multiples expand, we may struggle to keep pace with the market.
Not exact matches
Even though the correlation is strong, there are times
when the total return on stocks has been positive, even as the
valuation multiple declined.
When you purchase a broad swath of equities, say an S&P 500 index fund, the returns you can expect over the next decade or so comprise four building blocks: the starting dividend yield, projected growth in real earnings per share, expected inflation, and the expected change in «
valuation» — that is, the expansion or contraction in the price / earnings (P / E)
multiple.
Valuation multiples tend to increase
when confidence in corporate earnings certainty and growth increases.
So
when we include estimated foreign GVA, we don't get to just reduce current
valuation multiples by one - third and leave the
valuations of prior years unchanged.
But in the late 90s,
when small technology companies with excessive
valuation premiums displaced big businesses from the large - cap universe, investors who thought large caps were low risk got a double whammy — large - cap stocks» earnings and P / E
multiples both declined sharply.
Lower rates boost the value of future earnings
when discounted into today's dollars, supporting higher
valuation multiples.
A 6.8 x
multiple would imply a
valuation of about $ 8.50 / share
when using my estimates for how MEG's capitalization will look post the BH Media transaction and accounting for BH Media's warrants.
When you're in this type of market, I think the best investing style is buying stuff with a few catalysts, that are dirt dirt cheap (cause then you can still get legit
valuation multiple expansion), and have slightly lower market exposure.
Price - to - book (P / B) ratio as a
valuation multiple is useful for value comparison between similar companies within the same industry
when they follow a uniform accounting method for asset
valuation.
Lower rates boost the value of future earnings
when discounted into today's dollars, supporting higher
valuation multiples.
The sell - side in these types of situations tends to value companies at peak
multiples of trough earnings, and only shifts to the more mid-cycle earnings and
valuation we use
when there's clear evidence the cycle has turned.
Combined with earnings growth, we see these returns of capital to shareholders offsetting some
valuation challenges: Investors are typically unwilling to bid up equity
valuation multiples when rising interest rates and inflation threaten to erode corporate profit margins.
Given Visteon's
multiple internal and external catalyst's, highly attractive absolute
valuation and the outsized spread between the company's «
when issued» shares and the already depressed
valuation's of its global competitors, we think that the stars are aligning for bargain hunting investors to generate spectacular returns of 30 % + in a short period of time with relatively low risk.
The latter occurs
when the momentum effect is shifting from high -
valuation -
multiple stocks to cheap stocks or vice versa, which creates high turnover in both the long and short portfolios, triggering very active trading.
This
valuation looks inexpensive on an absolute basis, and especially
when we factor in the high earnings growth expectations: With a PE
multiple of 15.6 and an expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.74.
The speculative component rose above 100 percent during the 2008 - 2009 bear market,
when the drop in
valuation multiples made up the entire loss in share value, on average.
When this happens (all business cycles eventually do come to an end) we'll be left with double
valuation headwinds: falling earnings forcing high
valuation multiples higher and higher stock / bond relative PE ratios.
That's because
when stocks have high
multiples and tight spreads, there's little upside in holding them (future return has been brought forward to today) but there's lots of downside due to their equity
valuations tendency to mean revert.
A 6.8 x
multiple would imply a
valuation of about $ 8.50 / share
when using my estimates for how MEG's capitalization will look post the BH Media transaction and accounting for BH Media's warrants.
[N American stocks often trade at a
multiple of UK
valuations, particularly
when it comes to hot new sectors — witness the astounding step - change in HIVE Blockchain Technologies» share price &
valuation.]
So, the real challenge here isn't
valuation, it's
when & how it re-rates (for example) to a luxury goods
multiple, which I think would be well - deserved in terms of Saga's unique investment proposition & long term sales and margin record.
And if such a new paradigm turns out to be (even half - way) correct, America's effective high yield status in the developed world could have even more bullish implications elsewhere — I mean, what's the appropriate discount & ultimate
valuation multiple for markets like Europe (or Japan, or the UK, etc. etc.),
when their risk - free rates are close to zero (or even negative) the whole way out the curve?!
When he was asked about the
valuation methodology and justifying numbers while working on a deal for the NFL's Buffalo Bills last year — one that didn't make it across the goal line he joked — «I was asked, «what's the
multiple?»