In the so - called dot plot, which shows all the participants expectations of
where the Fed fund rates can be at the end of the year, end of this year and next year, if you take out the lowest two, we get four rate hikes this year.
The U.S. Treasuries gained Thursday, taking cues from the Federal Reserve's overnight decision,
where the Fed Funds rate remained unchanged, with expectations of a slightly higher inflationary pressure.
He wrote this in 1996, when the US was recovering from the severe Fed tightening in 1994, which resulted from lax monetary policy 1991 - 1993,
where the Fed funds rate was stuck at 3 %.
I didn't think the 20 % a year return scenario was any less realistic than the 8 % a year return scenario (the one
where the Fed Funds Rate never rises).
Not exact matches
In addition to the rules - based approach, Mester also suggested the
Fed not focus so much on short - term data changes in its economic projections, and tweaking those projections to link them to
where each individual member believes the
funds rate should be if those conditions come to fruition.
All of this raises questions about support for a critical line in the
Fed's statement
where it says: «The federal
funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.»
The economy may be healthy enough for them to raise interest
rates, but the new 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent target for the benchmark
fed funds rate, up a quarter point from where it had been, remains far below the historical norm — and, by all indications, the Fed still expects rates to stay low for at least a few more yea
fed funds rate, up a quarter point from
where it had been, remains far below the historical norm — and, by all indications, the
Fed still expects rates to stay low for at least a few more yea
Fed still expects
rates to stay low for at least a few more years.
One way to gauge what the market expects in terms of short - term
rates is to look at
Fed Funds future contracts, which allow investors to place bets on what where the federal funds rate will be in the future (This long - term view can influence short - term ra
Funds future contracts, which allow investors to place bets on what
where the federal
funds rate will be in the future (This long - term view can influence short - term ra
funds rate will be in the future (This long - term view can influence short - term
rates).
If we assume that the market (via the
fed funds forward curve) is correct (pricing in a 2 %
rate in 2 years) and that inflation will gradually rise to 2 %, that will still leave us at a 0 % real
rate in 2 years, which is
where R * is right now.
The
Fed had a chance to raise 3 times in 2015, 3 times in 2016, now they're entering a situation
where maybe the
Fed fund rate tops out at 2 - 2 1/4.
And, as I have said since the beginning of this move, given that the FOMC has been willing to use crude policy tools like the
Fed funds rate to try to reflate areas
where credit stress is high, they will overshoot.
The
Fed influences
where Fed funds trades through open market operations,
where they lower the
Fed funds rate by increasing the supply of reserves to the system through temporary repurchase transactions, and outright purchases of securities through the creation of new credit, thus expanding its balance sheet (a permanent injection of liquidity).
In August 2007 the Board of Governors cut the primary discount
rate from 6.25 % to 5.75 %, reducing the spread over the
fed funds rate from 1 percentage point to 0.5,
where it currently sits (from early 2008 to 2010 the spread was 0.25 percentage points).
This covers the period from the final aggressive 75 basis point move by the FOMC,
where there were expectations of a 1 %
fed funds rate by year end 2008, to now,
where the
rate at year end is between 2.5 - 3.0 %.
From the near - zero level
where we'll begin the process when the
Fed does begin to increase short - term interest
rates, history suggests, when the cycle of raising
rates is completed, that this process would leave us with a Federal
funds rate of about 4.25 percent, all things considered.
As others have commented, and I can't remember
where, the low
Fed funds rate reduces the powers of the regional Federal Reserve banks, and raises the power of the NY
Fed and the Board of Governors, because the regional Federal Reserve banks don't have much play in the new lending programs.
In the past, however, there have been rare instances
where the federal
funds rate has exceeded the discount
rate, and it's been cheaper for banks to borrow money directly from the
Fed than from each other.
This yield curve shape tends to happen over my survey period at a time when change is about to happen (4 of 7 times — 1971, 1977, 1993 and 2004), and one
where the FOMC will raise
rates aggressively (3 of 7 times — 1977, 1993 and 2004) after
fed funds have been left too low for too long.
Here is
where the
Fed would believe that the ability to pay interest on deposits is important — short term interest
rates can not fall much below the
Fed Funds rate, as any excess money would simply flow into reserves at the
Fed.