Sentences with phrase «where ukip»

Remember that the national average includes two regions where UKIP will struggle to exceed 10 % (Scotland and London).

Swadlincote is exactly the kind of place where UKIP will take Labour votes, in the current environment.

I've seen footage where the UKIP candidate offered to shake hands on the platform but the Tory candidate declined.

These are the areas where UKIP had performed best four years ago.

Paul Nuttall (seat yet to be decided) The Ukip leader has dithered over whether and where to stand since the election was called but there is speculation that he could go for Boston and Skegness, a Tory - held Lincolnshire seat with high eastern European immigration, or Heywood and Middleton, a Labour - held seat outside Manchester where Ukip did well in a byelection.

In Wrexham, another seat where Ukip stood down, it appears Labour and the Tories equally benefited from Ukip's former voters, keeping the seat Labour despite its high leave profile.

Great Yarmouth, up the coast from the seat in Norfolk, is another Tory - held seaside seat where UKIP and Labour are seen as the main challengers.

The poll by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft suggests that Ukip will also take seats in South Thanet - where the Ukip leader is standing - Boston and Skegness, Eastleigh and Thurrock.

Mr Goodwin analysed Labour constituencies with the lowest majorities where over 50 % voted Leave in the EU referendum, and where Ukip are already in second place, or a close third, to come up with his list of 20 target seats.

Farage travelled to the swing seat of Thurrock in Essex where Ukip deprived Labour of control of the council.

Another conversation was going in Rotherham where Ukip won 10 seats and Labour won 11 seats.

We have polls of marginal seats, but what about safe conservative seats where UKIP might do well?

On a visit to Essex, where Ukip success contributed to Labour losing control of the Thurrock, and the Tories losing control of four councils, he said:

Labour received major setbacks in its northern heartlands, where Ukip appeared to eat into its support, prompting the former minister Graham Stringer to warn that Miliband lacked «immediate appeal».

Tory strategists are concerned that if they appoint a current MP, that could possibly trigger an embarrassing by - election where Ukip might perform strongly ahead of the General Election next May.

Other areas where Ukip is building on prior activism include Adur, Dudley, Lincoln, Newcastle - under - Lyme, North East Lincolnshire, Plymouth, Rotherham, Sefton and Wirral, which are also areas (or close to areas) where Ukip did well in 2013.

In May 2015, with polls pointing to a hung Parliament in the run up to the 2015 general election, the Bow Group chairman, Ben Harris - Quinney, called on voters in marginal constituencies to support the values of conservatism by voting UK Independence Party (UKIP) where the Conservatives could not win, and the Conservatives where UKIP could not win.

This is attributable to the East Midlands, where the UKIP vote fell sharply in the absence of the «Kilroy - Silk effect» from 2004 having an unusually high proportion of shire districts that elect on an «all up» basis and had no elections in 2004.

The third key issue is where UKIP are doing relatively well and relatively badly and which other parties that hurts.

In my latest round of marginals research I have looked at four constituencies where it has been suggested UKIP pose a challenge to the Conservatives: Boston & Skegness, which UKIP «won» in the 2013 local elections; Castle Point, where Bob Spink, the first MP to sit for UKIP, came second in 2010; South Basildon & East Thurrock, which is adjacent to one of the party's best prospects; and North East Cambridgeshire, where the Tories have had concerns in a county where UKIP have had some success in local elections (more...)

But there are a number of constituencies where UKIP are the largest party among BES respondents, which certainly signals the potential for the party to win a handful of seats.

Since the election, attention has quickly turned to the 2015 general election, where UKIP is hopeful that it can take its revolt into Westminster.

In the by - elections since the 2010 General Election, UKIP have beaten the junior coalition party time and time again, including all of the last four where UKIP picked up two second places and one third.

Mr Farage said he could not predict where UKIP might gain seats, or in which parts of the country, but added «we will travel optimistically».

Labour leader Ed Miliband has spoken to supporters in Thurrock, where Ukip made gains from the Tories and Labour in last week's local elections, ITV News» Deputy Political Editor Chris Ship has reported.

Want to know where UKIP will flourish?

However, the results in Heywood and Middleton where Ukip lost by just 617 votes was potentially a bigger shock to Labour, as the party has always argued Ukip is a greater threat to the Tories.

But we saw the opposite pattern in Ipswich, where a Ukip surge bit deep into the Tory vote, leaving Labour well ahead.

The best way to see the wider impact of this is to compare the seats where Ukip stood for the first time in 2014 with those where they did not have a candidate.

But the real problem for the existing parties is the third factor at work — namely, that there are a host of battleground seats where Ukip support is large enough to have a decisive impact, even if the party comes nowhere near winning.

Paradoxically, the seats where Ukip may be most influential are not those with the largest concentrations of supporters.

In seats like Eastleigh and Rotherham, where Ukip are now the main opposition party on the council, they can start to put the squeeze on the Tories, arguing that even if they can't win outright in 2015, they are the only credible opposition to the incumbent.

The result is this map (above) which shows the seats where Ukip's intervention could prove critical.

On average in the local elections the swing from Labour to Conservatives since 2013 in places where UKIP stood both times was 6.7 points.

On average the swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives since 2013 in places where UKIP stood both times was 4.2 points.

Some voters may also hear a patronising message to the effect that they are too dim to understand the consequences of their vote — and many live in seats where UKIP present the only prospect of removing a sitting Labour MP.

This was first explained in my North Norfolk prediction and my current version assumes that residual UKIP voters will split 2:1 between the Conservatives & Labour in seats where UKIP have stood down.

The swings from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives were much bigger where UKIP did well last time, but UKIP dropped out more often where they did worse.

In the general election, UKIP dropout is likely to help the Conservatives a little in those seats where UKIP did well last time, but in most places the dropout effect may well be negligible.

If Labour receives fewer votes than UKIP political commentators will no doubt discuss their «humiliating defeat» — however if their vote share is similar to what I've predicted (as polling indicates they might) then they will have done exactly as well as we should expect, indeed if they win more than 12.25 % of the vote they will have done better than expected, regardless of where UKIP finish.

Whether in putting forward immigration policies so extreme they are instantly dismissed for being unrealistic, or in promising to deliver a referendum on Europe where Ukip never can, the Tory approach to Farage has consistently been to try and marginalise him.

Although I tried a variety of methods, I found no way of dealing with the «UKIP effect» which might change the outcome of the Eastleigh by - election (simply because there aren't enough cases where UKIP has played a prominent role in the outcome of a by - election).

For once, not a LibDem issue, but a broader one where UKIP came third in the popular vote and may have one MP whereas the SNP is significantly overrepresented in the UK Parliament according to its share of vote.

In seats where Ukip are already well - established thanks to local election and byelection success, there will be a large pool of voters they can appeal to in their attempts to build a winning Westminster coalition in 2015.»

The socio - demographic profile of the places where UKIP did well also suggests that it took more new votes from people who would otherwise have voted Labour this year.

A runner - up spot in Bootle, where UKIP deputy leader Paul Nuttall is standing, is a virtual certainty.

Also there were many seats and councils where the UKIP advance was enough to help another party topple the Tories.

Goodwin analysed Labour constituencies with the lowest majorities where over 50 % voted Leave in the EU referendum, and where Ukip are already in second place, or a close third, to come up with his list of 20 target seats.

Britain entered a parallel universe this week, where Ukip rule the country and Nigel Farage is prime minister.

There is also the prospect of a slew of Tory held by - elections caused by the seeming systematic breach of electoral law at the last election, predominantly in places where Ukip were pressing the Conservatives hard.