In an environment
where bond yields are just over 4 % that's a tall order.
Frankly, I don't think they matter a damn: Take note of
where bond yields have actually ranged in the past few years — now if they manage to reach those levels again, why should that suddenly spell disaster for the markets?
Sudden decreases in inflation usually cause the opposite reaction,
where bond yields decline and prices increase.
Financial planner Michael Kitces notes that this is hardly the first time that retirees have faced challenging financial markets, including long periods
where bond yields have been low and the stock market has stagnated or gone into a prolonged slump.
However, bond yields have been mostly driven by US developments,
where bond yields appear unusually low against a background of strong growth, rising inflation and increasing short - term interest rates.
Sudden decreases in inflation usually cause the opposite reaction,
where bond yields decline and prices increase.
Not exact matches
In addition to the aforementioned concerns, Golub noted fears about whether economic growth won't meet lofty expectations and signals being sent from the
bond market,
where a narrower gap between government
bond yields is kindling fears that a recession is looming.
The
bonds of iHeartMedia have long been in the basket of «distressed debt,» meaning their prices have fallen so far to
where their
yields are at least 10 percentage points higher than equivalent Treasury
yields.
Bond yields rose to the highs of the day as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid out a case
where the Fed could raise rates more than it has forecast.
Bond yields rose after Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out a case
where the Fed could raise interest rates more than it currently forecasts.
It's the total earnings - per - share the market generates as a percent of the market's total value — a measure similar to the
yield on
bonds,
where the
yield rises when
bond prices fall, and vice versa.
So while there could be one or even five year periods
where longer maturity
bonds perform fairly well from these
yield levels, over the long - term they're likely to be a poor investment in terms of earning a decent return over the rate of inflation.
Although the
yield of a 10 - year U.S. Treasury
bond has risen recently to around 2.50 % — that's not too far from
where it was at the beginning of 2017 (source: Bloomberg, as of 1/10/2018).
At Bear, Stearns & Co., Mr. Abbott served as a Vice President in Financial Analytics & Structured Transactions (F.A.S.T)
where he structured and reverse engineered complex CDO transactions, secured by a wide range of debt products, including high
yield bonds, senior secured leverage loans, trust preferred bank loans, RMBS as well as other esoteric receivables.
A huge number of sellers would be pouring into a market with a dearth of buyers, setting up a scenario
where bond prices cascade and
yields explode.
For example, it does not include euro
bonds («reverse Yankees») that are hot in Europe,
where junk
bond yields are at a ludicrously low 2.35 % on average, and the high - grade
yield is just above zero.
You may search for and purchase high
yield bonds at Fidelity.com,
where you can choose the credit rating levels appropriate for your portfolio and risk tolerance.
However, the reaction of the
bond market is another story altogether, with
yields on 10 - year Treasuries recently returning to about
where they were when this year began.
In a country
where the unemployment rate is at a 20 - year low and industrial output is approaching historical highs, fueling inflation concerns, a 10 - year government
bond yield of 1.5 % is totally inappropriate and will naturally spur people to buy real estate.
The main exception to this global pattern has been Japan,
where 10 - year
bond yields have remained remarkably stable, generally trading in the range between 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent so far this year (Graph 8).
Note: HYG the $ 20bln high
yield ETF
yields 5.13 % in comparison, hence you might need to buy an out of favor sector like bricks and mortar retail, otherwise non-rated is likely
where you will find > 7 % in the US domestic
bond market.
For years, friendly debt markets have allowed issuers to push the «maturity wall» —
where tons of
bonds come due simultaneously across the high -
yield market.
In other words
bond traders look at the
yield of a
bond in terms of
where it is trading vs. treasuries.
It will also cover the trajectory of peripheral sovereign
bond yields in the face of investor uncertainty,
where yields were first pushed above seven percent, and then eventually to much higher levels, forcing a rescue program.
We are also watching the US economy,
where any unexpected slowdown in growth or jump in longer - dated
bond yields, given the more advanced tightening campaign, could have repercussions for the European economic outlook.
Because of
yield - seeking speculation, stock and
bond prices today are already
where they are likely to be many years from today.
According to Bloomberg data,
bond yields are pretty much exactly
where they started this year, while recent volatility has pushed back the likely timing of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.
Love the company, not sure I love the valuation but such is investing life these days with
bond yields where they are.
Looking at periods
where the price to peak earnings was above 19 and inflation and
bond yields were below 2.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, stocks had an average seven - year return of 6 percent.
Despite the 10 - year US Treasury
bond only
yielding roughly 2.2 %, that's still much higher than 10 - year Treasury
bonds from countries like France (0.6 %), Germany (0.3 %), Japan (0.0 %), and Switzerland,
where you actually lose money lending -LRB--0.2 %).
Low returns have followed characteristics that are more similar to today — a CAPE ratio in the mid-20's,
where dividend
yields,
bond yields, and inflation were below average.
In cases since 1960
where the slope of the
yield curve was inverted, 10 - year
bond yields actually rose following the Fed's first rate cut - an average of 43 basis points over the next 12 months and 15 basis points over the next 18 months.
In Japan,
where government
bond yields have fallen below zero and faith in Abenomics is flagging, gold sales are soaring.
For example, in a world
where short - term interest rates are zero, Wall Street acts as if a 2 % dividend
yield on equities, or a 5 % junk
bond yield is enough to make these securities appropriate even for investors with short horizons, not factoring in any compensation for risk or likely capital losses.
For
bonds to defend against declining equity values,
where do
bond yields need to fall?
And so, there is this big dichotomy I think between what the Fed governors are forecasting in terms of their so - called «dot plot,»
where they think interest rates are going to be and
where the market is again, saying well, actually we know better,
bond yields are always going to stay low.
She is a regular contributor of fixed income analysis to Saxo bank's News & Research hub
where she outlined her view of
bond market trends across the developed and emerging market spaces, as well as in investment grade and high -
yield bonds.
Still, we've observed diminishing returns from the Fed's interventions, there is no political tolerance for the Fed to intervene in securities involving any credit risk that would be borne by U.S. citizens (purchasing European sovereign debt, for example), and the
yield on the 10 - year Treasury
bond is already down to 1.7 %, which is far below
where it stood when prior interventions were initiated.
If we lived in a world
where treasury
bonds yielded 10 % and most blue - chip stocks had 2 % dividend
yields and 4 % earnings
yields, I'd shut the heck up about dividend stocks and start writing about the exhilarating world of fixed income that gets everyone's juices flowin».
Similarly, buying into businesses
where pre-tax earnings
yield was in excess of twice of AAA
bond yield, and the business had a strong balance sheet was one of the key methods of Graham for identifying a bargain security.
He joined Leith Wheeler from TD Bank in January 2009,
where he'd spent the previous 10 years trading a proprietary bank portfolio of credit default swaps, investment grade and high
yield bonds for TD in New York and London.
Bond yields are in line if not below
where the United States is, and the peripheral countries have been slowly moving in the right direction in terms of reform, some more quickly than others.
Property has
bond - like qualities, in that it represents a solid asset that produces an income via rents,
where the
yield rises as the price falls and vice-versa (provided the rental income doesn't fall, of course).
We define intrinsic value as the amount that would accrue to the owners of a security if the underlying company were sold to a rational and well - informed buyer, or the company was liquidated with the proceeds distributed to security holders, or
where the particular security sells at a price that would
yield no better than a security considered ultra-safe, such as a US Treasury note or
bond» Lou Simpson
Depending on
where the stock market and
bond market are at the time, I'd like to deploy $ 300,000 of the proceeds in low risk investments that have a high chance of producing a 4 % gross
yield.
Even in a world
where short - term interest rates will continue to rise as the Federal Reserve raises policy interest rates (most likely 2 — 3 times next year) and
where long - term rates should rise slowly as the Fed lets its balance sheet shrink, tax - free
yields should either stay the same or move down as the municipal
bond world confronts a market with much less issuance.
As a
bond investor, you are basically taking a view of
where interest rates are going along the
yield curve and the issuer's ability to pay the money promised.
With fully two - thirds of its money invested in domestic and foreign stocks, private equity and «absolute return strategies» (i.e., hedge funds), the New York State pension fund has a risky asset allocation profile typical of its counterparts across the country — because chasing risk is its only hope of earning 7 percent a year in a market
where the most secure long - term
bonds yield barely 2 percent.
Buying stocks
where the dividend
yield was at least two - thirds the AAA
bond yield would have generated an average compound growth rate of 19.5 %; and
In a world
where finding
yield is a challenge, even a looming rate hike isn't enough to get investors particularly excited about their
bond portfolios.