Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of heat to the deeper ocean (
where changes in heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
Not exact matches
Gavin, you forget the Hadcm3 model tests with 10 x solar and 5 x volcanic, which found that the model probably underestimates solar variations with a factor 2... Btw, the largest
changes in the ocean
heat content are found
in the (sub) tropics,
where insolation differences are at their maximum.
This was my mental equation dF = dH / dt + lambda * dT
where dF is the forcing
change over a given period (1955 - 2010), dH / dt is the rate of
change of ocean
heat content, and dT is the surface temperature
change in the same period, with lambda being the equilibrium sensitivity parameter, so the last term is the Planck response to balance the forcing
in the absence of ocean storage
changes.
A
change in the entropy of a system is caused by a
change in its
heat content,
where the
change of entropy is equal to the
heat change divided by the average absolute temperature (Ta):
The
change of the
heat content of the globe (mainly
in the oceans) is dH / dt = S (1 - a)-- E,
where S is the solar radiation, a the albedo, E the global infrared emission; such a relation is likely and there are historical series for H (figure 13 - A), E (figure 14 - A) for S and a; whether global averaging makes sense is debatable.