Light green, light blue and dark blue colours show areas
where precipitation increases by 10 per cent or more for 4 °C global warming.
Light green, light blue and dark blue colours show areas
where precipitation increases by 10 % or more for 4 °C global warming.
Overall,
where precipitation increases were projected, estimated erosion increased by 15 to 100 %.
Not exact matches
In addition, strong biosphere - radiation feedbacks are often present in several moderately wet regions, for instance in the Eastern U.S. and in the Mediterranean,
where precipitation and radiation
increase vegetation growth.
We found that
where temperature and
precipitation are
increasing together, climates are changing faster than the temperature trend alone would suggest.»
There were no significant trends in mean annual total
precipitation or total
precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant
increase in mean annual rain - free days,
where the mean number of dry days
increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly
increased by 1.6 % per decade.
Interestingly, East Africa is one region
where IPCC models predict
precipitation increases for the coming century.
How does CO2
increase affect the water vapor exchange, the cloud amount and its incredibly complex feedbacks involving aerosols,
precipitation efficiency, and the resultant radiation balance at the 1 - 2 meter height thermometer shelters
where humanity defines his / her climate?
Taking the slow
increase of
precipitation with temperature as a given, the more rapid
increase of boundary layer humidity implies that the rate of transport of moisture from the boundary layer to higher levels
where it rains out must go down.
If you were in a situation
where there was initially more
precipitation than radiative cooling could handle, then the atmosphere could just warm up until the radiative cooling
increased — though then you'd have to worry about how much the warming affects
precipitation, etc..
Further, let's agree that this will on average cause more
precipitation due to
increased evaporation at these higher temperatures (the best data I have seen say that the
precipitation trend over the continental US —
where we have the best long term records — is up 5 - 10 % over the last century).
About item (1), the amounts which melt and refreeze in the Arctic give an impression of the relative amounts involved,
where an
increase of
precipitation is marginal, compared to the the masses involved.
Growing populations and changing
precipitation patterns will
increase competition among urban, industrial, agricultural, and natural ecosystem water needs in regions
where overall water supply declines.
As a consequence, even in regions or states
where there is a strong
increasing trend in heavy
precipitation, the trend at an individual
precipitation gauge that represents the official total for a city may be equivocal, flat, or even down.
«So
where is the discussion of reverse solubility,
increased physical
precipitation and out gassing of Arctic and Antarctic oceans?»
Pakistan is in a region
where temperature
increases are higher, which will affect
precipitation and vegetation.
Even in areas
where precipitation does not decrease, these
increases in surface evaporation and loss of water from plants lead to more rapid drying of soils if the effects of higher temperatures are not offset by other changes (such as reduced wind speed or
increased humidity).5 As soil dries out, a larger proportion of the incoming heat from the sun goes into heating the soil and adjacent air rather than evaporating its moisture, resulting in hotter summers under drier climatic conditions.6
Nonetheless, in much of the United States
where spring snow melt does not dominate peak or normal flow, Groisman et al. (2001) show
increasing high streamflow related to
increasing heavy
precipitation.
Even
where increases are projected, there can be short - term shortages due to more variable streamflow (because of greater variability of
precipitation), and seasonal reductions of water supply due to reduced snow and ice storage.
Where precipitation decreases were projected, the results were more complex due largely to interactions between plant biomass, runoff, and erosion, and either
increases or decreases in overall erosion could occur.
Efforts to offset declining surface water availability due to
increasing precipitation variability will be hampered by the fact that groundwater recharge will decrease considerably in some already water - stressed regions (high confidence)[3.2, 3.4.2],
where vulnerability is often exacerbated by the rapid
increase in population and water demand (very high confidence)[3.5.1].
In addition to direct crop damage from increasingly intense
precipitation events, wet springs can delay planting for grain and vegetables in New York, for example, and subsequently delay harvest dates and reduce yields.67 This is an issue for agriculture nationally, 65 but is particularly acute for the Northeast,
where heavy rainfall events have
increased more than in any other region of the country (Ch.
Projections of future changes in
precipitation show small
increases in the global average but substantial shifts in
where and how
precipitation falls.
We don't know how much climate change will be caused by X amount of CO2, nor how much of that climate change will manifest as
increased precipitation, and
where.
Another aspect of these projected changes is that wet extremes are projected to become more severe in many areas
where mean
precipitation is expected to
increase, and dry extremes are projected to become more severe in areas
where mean
precipitation is projected to decrease.
Widespread
increases in heavy
precipitation events have been observed, even in places
where total amounts have decreased.
As temperatures rise, the likelihood of
precipitation falling as rain rather than snow
increases, especially in autumn and spring at the beginning and end of the snow season, and in areas
where temperatures are near freezing.
As for the 2006 study, it goes on to say: «The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West,
where, notwithstanding
increased precipitation (and in some cases
increased soil moisture and runoff),
increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have
increased.»
That's the case in Antarctica, which is geographically very different to the Arctic,
where an
increase in surface sea ice area, but not total volume, is currently being observed due to
increased precipitation and
increased surface water run off.
In some regions
where winter
precipitation is projected to
increase, the
increased snowfall can more than make up for the shorter snow season and yield
increased snow accumulation.
Anthropogenic influences have contributed to observed
increases in atmospheric moisture content in the atmosphere (medium confidence), to global - scale changes in
precipitation patterns over land (medium confidence), to intensification of heavy
precipitation over land regions
where data are sufficient (medium confidence), and to changes in surface and subsurface ocean salinity (very likely).
I have spent most of my life in very dry areas of Africa,
where increased precipitation of that order would be most welcome, as also
where I now live in Australia.
The differences are very small over most regions (less than ± 5 %), except for a small area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
where the non-high-end models project an
increase in
precipitation that is about 50 per cent greater than in the high - end models.
The light green colour areas show
where one or more models project a temperature rise of at least 6 °C, and at least 66 % of the models project a
precipitation increase.
Droughts due to declines in
precipitation are expected in the Mediterranean basin, as already mentioned, and in parts of India,
where increasing temperatures are also expected to challenge the heat tolerances of rice and wheat crops.
The light green areas show
where one or more models project a temperature rise of at least 6 °C, and at least 66 per cent of the models project a
precipitation increase.
The largest
increase in
precipitation will occur over land in the tropics
where the atmosphere is warming quickest.