In all my years of bookmaking, I can not remember a single year
where public bettors following the favorites cleaned up like this.
There are a number of games this weekend including this one
where public bettors are happy to take the underdog and the points, which could present some value on the other side by the end of the week.
Betting against the public requires more patience in NHL
where public bettors aren't really wagering on these games, but teams getting < 20 % of tickets have earned +5.05 units this year.
This is one strategy
where public bettors have fared quite well.
Through nine games, Dallas has received the majority of public action eight times, with Week 5 against Green Bay the only instance
where public bettors preferred their opponent.
Not exact matches
Sportsbooks are more likely to adjust their moneyline in games
where they have significant liability, to it's imperative that
bettors target heavily bet games with extremely one - sided
public betting.
This proved to be too short as both
public and sharp
bettors have bet Bama up to -24
where they're currently at around the market.
Since we already knew that a majority of
public bettors routinely take ranked teams against ranked opposition, I believed that we could exploit this tendency by focusing on heavily bet games
where shading would be more prevalent.
This gives
bettors a good indication of
where sharps are betting, and it also helps distinguish sharp vs.
public action when these lines are available around the entire market during the season.
There's clearly more value fading the
public in these nationally televised, late season games,
where casual
bettors come out in droves.
Everton / West Brom is a great example this week
where most
public bettors see a line of Everton +160 and get sucked in.
This strategy involves taking favorites that are being ignored by a majority of
bettors — especially in the most heavily bet games
where public money is more likely to artificially inflate the spread.
This is one of the most bet games of the week and
public bettors could inflate the line on Bama, but only about 60 % of tickets are taking the Crimson Tide right now, so books set a good number
where they'd attract some Aggies bets.
We have seen similar
public betting at William Hill
where a majority of
bettors are taking the over, but far more money has taken the under.
The
public's behavior during the postseason runs in direct contrast to the regular season
where bettors tend to overwhelmingly favor betting on home teams and favorites.
As always, Dave Mason from BetOnline.AG joins to talk about
where the
public and sharp
bettors are laying down their coin on draft night.
Often bargains can be found on series plays
where you're laying -400 or greater, since these types of bets mainly attract underdog money from
public bettors.