If we were certain that the ensemble mean warming represents the real climate systemt we could read out from figure 1c at
which cumulative carbon emission we could expect to cross this threshold.
Not exact matches
Even the 350 - ppm limit for
carbon dioxide is «questionable,» says physicist Myles Allen of the Climate Dynamics Group at the University of Oxford, and focusing instead on keeping
cumulative emissions below one trillion metric tons might make more sense,
which would mean humanity has already used up more than half of its overall
emissions budget.
By framing the issue in terms of a
carbon budget based around
cumulative emissions, the IPCC's most recent report showed that it doesn't necessarily matter what short - term
emissions reduction targets are adopted, or
which country cuts
emissions by a particular amount relative to another nation's pledges.
A global warming target is converted to a fossil fuel
emissions target with the help of global climate -
carbon - cycle models,
which reveal that eventual warming depends on
cumulative carbon emissions, not on the temporal history of
emissions [12].
The long - term sea level rise will depend critically on the
cumulative carbon emission pathway humans follow,
which determines the sustained global warming that can be maintained for centuries to millennia.
Regarding text stating that limiting warming from anthropogenic CO2
emissions alone to likely less than 2 °C since 1861 - 1880 requires
cumulative emissions to stay below 1000 gigatonnes of
carbon (GtC), Saudi Arabia urged using 1850 for consistency, to
which the CLAs responded that some model simulations only begin in 1860,
which delegates agreed to reflect in a footnote.
This watershed, painstaking analysis traces
emissions totaling 914 gigatons of
carbon dioxide - equivalent —
which amounts to 63 % of the
cumulative worldwide
emissions of industrial CO2 and methane between 1751 and 2010 — to 90 so - called «
carbon major» entities worldwide.
Wasdell said that the draft submitted by scientists contained a metric projecting
cumulative total anthropogenic
carbon dioxide
emissions, on the basis of
which a «
carbon budget» was estimated — the quantity of
carbon that could be safely emitted without breaching the 2 degrees Celsius limit to avoid dangerous global warming.
Attributing Environmental Damage to
Carbon Producers: Richard Heede, co-founder and director of the Climate Accountability Institute, presented a preview of a research project several years in the making, in
which he has been quantifying the annual and
cumulative global warming
emissions attributable to each of the world's major
carbon producers....
Translating this commitment into quantitative implications for
cumulative carbon involves a lot of guesswork as to how China will go about fulfilling its commitment, because the agreement does not spell out the value at
which emissions will peak.
This appears to me to comport with the «IEO2011 Reference case projects about 1 trillion metric tons of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide
emissions between 2009 and 2035» that you cited in # 143,
which clearly states CO ₂ in the sentence.
Because all 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios — except Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6),
which leads to the total radiative forcing of greenhouse gases of 2.6 W m − 2 in 2100 — imply that
cumulative carbon emission will exceed 1,000 Gt in the twenty - first century, our results suggest that anthropogenic interference will make the initiation of the next ice age impossible over a time period comparable to the duration of previous glacial cycles.»
>> The temperature response to
which we are already committed at the present level of
cumulative carbon emission is 3.9 °C (+ effect of non-CO2 GHG
emissions) not 1.5 °C implied in the SPM
Each molecule of
carbon dioxide,
which is the most important long - lived manmade greenhouse gas, can remain in the atmosphere for as many as 1,000 years, making it more urgent to cut
emissions in the near future, or face continued
cumulative warming for centuries to come.
Cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions after 2012 are 780 gigatonnes CO2 (Gt CO2),
which is well within the IPCC's budget of 1,010 GtCO2 for maintaining a 66 % likelihood of keeping warming below 2 °C.