Sentences with phrase «which recent warming trends»

Not exact matches

Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.

Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous [natural] Rossby wave - train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth's rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific.

From his own research in chemical oceanography, along with data from a number of recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and warming «are manifesting faster than previously predicted,» including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect «a large fraction of marine species if current trends continue unchecked.»

Finally, to show that cosmic rays were actually responsible for some part of the recent warming you would need to show that there was actually a decreasing trend in cosmic rays over recent decades — which is tricky, because there hasn't been (see the figure)(Missing step # 5).

«Using the [cherry flavored &; >) RSS data, which Santer used in determining his 17 - yr minimum time needed for a human global warming signal, the most recent 17 - yr trend is the lowest in the entire data series.»

And efforts to establish some sort of long term warming trend hidden away due to other factors have required a great many very complex and convoluted statistical calesthenics — all of which have been rendered irrelevant thanks to the recent data «corrections» by Karl et al..

4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece on global warming and hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

And note in addition that in addition to the warming, there are strong trends toward decreasing rainfall across the Antipodean continent, which are backed up by tragically decreased river and stream flows, severe water restrictions in most states (starting to ease in some places due to recent floods), and a significantly increased farmer suicide rate.

It's been nice in recent days to see some strong advocates for curbs in emissions of greenhouse gases shift from the more overheated, and unsupported, rhetoric they used earlier this year in attempting a kind of «kitchen sink» argument aiming to tie virtually every recent harmful weather event to warming, even those — like powerful tornadoes — for which there is no link and certainly no trend.

These earlier years, mainly El Nino years, average 11.5 years earlier than the projected recent hottest four, perhaps suggesting a rough calculation of the recent rate of AGW of at +0.16 ºC / decade, this of course the warming trend of peak years through the so - called «hiatus» years and being «peak years», it is a rate which assumes cooler years will be coming along soon.

No doubt the southern ocean, featured strongly by Hansen et al, plays an important role, but data there are poor, and change is not well known; in particular the recent hiatus in global warming greatly influences any observations, which can therefore be quite misleading wrt trends.

The Idsos would ignore both old and recent data, corrections, and the overwhelming majority of USHCN stations which showed warming trends.

Basically, there is no systematic trend in the modern GCR (presumably the data which is most reliable) that can explain the recent warming.

[Response: There is evidence that the enhanced continental winter warming in the Northern Hemisphere, which has resulted at least in part from a recent trend towards the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), may in fact also represent a response to anthropogenic impacts on climate.

Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.

The most recent 13 complete calendar years, from 2002 through 2014, have averaged 0.18 °C (about 0.33 °F) warmer than the 30 - year baseline average, while the global temperature trend during that span was a warming trend at the rate of +0.05 °C per decade — which is also statistically insignificant.

And they analyse the double standards used when discussing the so - called «pause» as compared to an equally long period of rapid warming, which in fact deviated more from the long - term trend than the recent phase of slower warming.

Also, using the same cherry picking approach as used by «skeptics» for the recent time period, based on which they claim a «global warming stop» or «pause» because of lacking statistical significance of a warming trend, I even could claim a «pause» in global warming from 1979 to at least the end of 1997.

It is not sufficient, because you also would have to show that the statistical trend estimate, which gives you Zero - or negative warming over the recent time period is not just something spurious due to the very noisy character of the limited data, masking a signal that you may see when your data sample is larger.

For more information on this topic a good link is: http://www.climateaudit.org/ As these records may not be as reliable as we would want them to be in consideration of the small degree of warming we are trying to measure, it is perhaps better to rely on other measures, which are more accurate, and do show a recent warming trend.

Ding et al., 2014 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7499/full/nature13260.html «Here we show that the recent warming in this region [northeastern Canada and Greenland] is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave - train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth's rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific.

However, despite this, the team reckon to have perhaps isolated a «global warming» signal in the accelerated run off of the Greenland Ice Mass — but only just, because the runoff at the edges is balanced by increasing central mass — again, they focus upon recent trends — a net loss of about 22 cubic kilometres in total ice mass per year which they regard as statistically not significant — to find the «signal», and a contradiction to their ealier context of air temperature cycles.

Early on in my following of the global warming issue I became aware of the Surface Stations Survey, which led me to be very skeptical of the validity of the most recent temperature data trends, as I have never seen any convincing explanation as to how data from the many urban heat island and «corrupted» temperature monitoring sites are properly corrected.

You can not justify cherry - picking 1998 as the «start date of a 15 - year trend showing imperceptible warming» (as Met Office did) versus cherry - picking the most recent 10 - year period starting in 2002, which shows a statistically significant (if shorter) cooling trend.

Second, there are presently only very few millennial length records available for direct comparison between the recent period and the MWP, and these records show trends which are not necessarily coherent over the latter interval, resulting in a «'' flattening» of MWP conditions compared to recent warming in our reconstruction.

For those wanting a closer look at the more recent wiggles and trends, the second graph starts in 1998, which was the start year used by von Storch et al (2013) Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming?

This surface warming would suggest a temperature trend of about 1º C per century, which is less than that predicted by the computer simulations, but it is unlikely that even this recent trend in surface warming is primarily attributable to human - made greenhouse gases....

However, if this was correct reasoning one could claim with equal validity, using the same data set and time period, that there has been global warming over the recent 20 - year period, since the trend is also not statistically significantly distinguishable from the trend estimate over the time period since 1979 («global warming» is the Null - hypothesis in this case), which itself is highly statistically significantly different from a Zero - trend (RSS: 0.124 + / -0.067 deg.

Spring and Autumn exhibit much more significant recent warming trends, which might lead us to imagine that they could represent «extremes».

SteveF has a post Estimating the underlying trend in recent warming, which is essentially a redo of the Foster and Rahstorf analysis.

Regarding clouds, recent trends suggest a slight decline in total cloud cover over several decades, due to a reduction in low clouds, which exert a net cooling influence, while high cirrus clouds, which are net warmers, have remained relatively constant.

Instead of the proposed positive feedback producing ever faster atmospheric temperature increases, the plot reveals a very strong warming trend that accelerated during the 2015/16 El Nino phenomenon, which then quickly decelerated to a per century trend of 4.3 degrees Celsius - and, in the recent past, similar deceleration patterns have lead to outright negative per century cooling trends.

Let me put it another way: If the recent statistical trend combines both AMO and global warming, then the correct heuristic interpretation of the result is an 80 % increase in likelihood, relative to a world in which both global warming and AMO had ceased.

As to» the truth», researchers have not expressed any evidence based on empiric observations according to which the trend of recent multidecadal global warming could have been controlled by anthropogenic CO2 emissions to atmospere.

Recent high profile heat waves, such as the one in Texas and Oklahoma in the summer of 2011, raise the question of whether these extreme events are related to the on - going global warming trend, which has been attributed with a high degree of confidence to human - made greenhouse gases (4).

The historical trend since 1979 is heavily influenced by the recent slowdown in the rate of surface warming which is likely to be the result of natural variability overprinting the forced trend.

The «pause» discussion continues (see RC for a summary of recent coverage), which seems a bit silly to me, because it isn't really a «pause» at all, just a continued anthropogenically - forced warming with some other (anthropogenic and natural) forcings and internal variability added on, such that the trend is a little lower than most expected.

For one of many good demonstrations that the recent slowdown (which, importantly, is «slow» only relative to immediately preceding «fast» warming — that's a hint for you) in no way is evidence against the continuing long term trend, see climate statistician Tamino's recent post «Slowdown Skeptic,» and «It's the Trend, Stupid,» and «Is Earth's Temperature About to Soar?»

And, in the more bad news department, we have a recent paper of regional warming trend projections, which indicates that all of the contiguous United States will experience 2 °C of warming (above pre-industrial) within 20 - 30 years.

We note, however, that the polar regions, where recent warming has been greatest, are overrepresented in the 9 % of the Earth's surface for which observed temperature trends are not available.

The recent negative trend in spring snow cover is underestimated by the CMIP5 (and CMIP3) models (Derksen and Brown, 2012), which is associated with an underestimate of the boreal land surface warming (Brutel - Vuilmet et al., 2013).

The adjustments and non-adjustments instead increased the warmth in the recent warm cycle that ended in 2001 and / or inexplicably cooled many locations in the early record, both of which augmented the apparent trend.»