The well - predicted years turn out to be those in
which sea ice extent lies close to its long - term downward trend.
Yes, after an autumn in
which the sea ice extent curve has tracked pretty closely with 2007 — which ended up with a record - low minimum — we have had a sharp increase in extent over the last few weeks.
The degree to which this estimate is wrong is a measure of the degree to
which the sea ice extent is not following a linear trend.
Not exact matches
Now, a new study led by Colorado State University provides important details on the
extent of
sea ice,
which can protect
ice shelves from the impacts of ocean storms, in the Antarctic Peninsula.
For decades beforehand, researchers had debated the
extent to
which ice shelves buttress glaciers on land — acting like corks that slow the land
ice's inevitable march to the
sea.
In the last three years, the
sea ice's
extent - the ocean area in
which a defined minimum of
sea ice can be found — was at its lowest in the 30 - year satellite record.
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual
sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers) below the previous lowest minimum
extent in the satellite record,
which occurred in 1997.
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño event,
which is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years where the surface water of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warms, has had any impact on the Arctic
sea ice minimum
extent.
A: The National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the
sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum
extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers,
which also set a record for the highest
extent of
sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s.
The
extent of Arctic
sea ice,
which melts to its low each September, has steadily declined over the past three decades, as the chart below illustrates.
The continued reduction in the
extent of
sea ice in the Arctic is expected to lead to increased photosynthetic primary production and POC flux there (Jones et al., 2014),
which could benefit fauna whose energetic demands increase as a result of ocean acidification (e.g., calcifying taxa).
This week, Arctic
sea ice extent - that is, the total ocean area in
which the
ice concentration is at least 15 percent - was at 1.96 million square miles.
This report describes simulations of future
sea -
ice extent using the NCAR CCSM3,
which point to the possible complete loss of
sea -
ice at the end of the melt season as soon as 2040.
Sea ice extent has dropped precipitously as has the amount of old
ice,
which is less prone to breakup.
Current
ice extent is well below levels at the same point in 2012,
which went on to set the current record for the lowest
sea ice minimum
extent:
The major areas of anomalous warmth were around the Arctic,
which also saw record low
sea ice extent during January and February.
The motivation for this time series is to visualize the fact that the long term Arctic - wide loss of
sea ice is not only happening in
extent,
which is well measured by satellites, but also in thickness,
which isn't.
We have just passed the annual maximum in Arctic
sea ice extent which always occurs sometime in March.
As you are probably aware, the Barents
Sea and to a somewhat lesser
extent the Kara
Sea had quite late
icing up this year (as opposed to other NH basins
which more or less froze up on queue).
That a connection between solar cycle length and
sea ice extent * could exist * —
which is about what I take them to have shown — is not absurd, and might be worth examining.
Dr. Brigham said that to a large
extent, it is Russian bureaucracy more than
sea ice or icebergs that is impeding international use of the Arctic route along its coast,
which has in theory been open to such transit since 1987.
I have predicted that artic
sea ice extent this summer will increase greatly because
sea ice extent is greatly affected by past land temperatures,
which have been unusally low since November (My 279, and responses 279 & 280).
As expected from my 2002 paper, the low A.O. conditions of late have sequestered quite a bit of
sea ice the Arctic,
which should foster a more moderate retreat of
sea ice extent this coming spring, summer and fall.
This report describes simulations of future
sea -
ice extent using the NCAR CCSM3,
which point to the possible complete loss of
sea -
ice at the end of the melt season as soon as 2040.
The median July Outlook for September 2015 Arctic
sea ice extent is 5.0 million square kilometers (km2),
which is the same as the June Outlook median.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and
extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model,
which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
The
extent to
which this will happen in the future depends, crucially, on how warm the
sea - water lying under the
ice - shelves is.
The predicted September monthly average
sea ice extent is 5.48 (4.97 - 5.98) million km2
which is same to the result of June Report.
The US National Snow and
Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
Ice Data Center,
which monitors Arctic
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic
sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.»
Already the
sea ice extent is tracking below this time in 2007,
which remains the record year for the lowest
sea ice extent.
Sea ice extent is defined by the area in
which ice concentration exceeds 15 percent.
Bob, you write «Jim, there is a negative correlation between
sea ice extent and CO2
which you have done nothing to dispel.»
Provided that ocean and atmospheric conditions favor rapid melting in June and July,
which we feel are still likely, it is therefore hypothesized that the 2013 fall
sea ice extent will achieve values comparable to those of 2012, with regional losses governed by local wind and
ice conditions and dynamics.
This will happen regardless of the
extent of late - summer
sea ice (
which is what all the «hoopla» is about now).
In both the Arctic and the Antarctic «natural causes» (the seasons) are responsible for the seasonal decrease / increase in
sea ice extent,
which are, of course, much larger than the average annual change.
For example, the events of summer 2012 suggest that spring
sea ice extent is probably not the best variable on
which to base summer Outlooks.
Using satellites we can estimate both
sea ice area,
which is the area of the
sea which is
ice - covered, and
ice extent,
which is the area of ocean
which has 15 % or more
ice cover.
They used all the scientific papers they could find that investigated both polar bears and
sea ice,
which added up to 92, and scored their positions on
sea ice extent and whether it is decreasing significantly and the threat of extinction versus adaptability of polar bears.
Sea ice extent, thickness and volume are all normal, yet the Flat Earth Society of climate scientists drones on endlessly about an
ice - free Arctic —
which they will never live to see.
On the text on the
extent of Arctic
sea ice, the UK asked about changes in Arctic
sea ice thickness and the US about summer
sea ice extent, to
which the CLAs replied that this information is discussed in detail in the underlying assessment.
For the month of November, the Arctic
sea ice extent averaged 9.08 million square kilometers,
which is 1.95 million square kilometers below the recorded 1981 to 2010 long - term average for the said month.
The rapid warming and increased solar radiation absorption have combined to result in younger, thinner Arctic
sea ice,
which therefore melts more easily, making record low
extents more likely to occur.
However, neither of these papers involve reconstructions of Arctic
sea ice extent; rather, they deal with reconstructing Greenland temperatures,
which are not necessarily representative of Arctic temperature as a whole - after all, the continent is covered in a large
ice sheet, and the reconstructions are from the summit of the Greenland
ice cap, not at
sea level.
«Direct observational data on surface air temperature are sparse for the Antarctic, but none of the datasets examined provides evidence of net warming south of 60 ° S since 1979, a period during
which sea -
ice extent increased a little.»
Thus if we look back far enough in the past, we can certainly find a period during
which the Arctic was hotter and Arctic
sea ice extent was lower.
Stroeve et al. (2011) noted that in 2009 - 2010, the AO was in a state
which should have resulted in a large
sea ice extent; the fact that 2010 was a year of relatively low
sea ice extent is indicative long - term human - caused
sea ice decline.
The NOAA report dedicates a specific section of the report to discussing Antarctic
sea ice extent,
which has seen records of high
extent broken for three years in a row.
Thus, the concept of increasing CO2 is causing increasing
sea level rise from polar
ice melt embodies two assumptions that need to be established with physical evidence: 1) the
extent to
which increased CO2 will cause increased temperatures, assumptions or models do not suffice; and 2) the
extent to
which increased temperatures will cause Antarctic
ice melt.
While Greenland was setting records linked to melting, another was being set around the chilly mass of Antarctica,
which saw a new highest daily
sea ice extent.
I'm still staring at the AMSR - E
sea Ice extent graph, which right on cue with Al Gore's proclamation that the Artic ice would be gone in five years (so give Al money no
Ice extent graph,
which right on cue with Al Gore's proclamation that the Artic
ice would be gone in five years (so give Al money no
ice would be gone in five years (so give Al money now!)