[15] A crude revised central estimate is 3.4 °C, being the median ECS of the 7 models (CGCM3.1, HadCM3, CanESM2, IPSL - CM5A, MRI - CGCM3, NCAR - CAM5, NorESM1 - M)
whose seasonal variability lies within the uncertainty range for the observational estimate, after substituting the Brient & Schneider consistency assessment for the 4 models where if differs radically.