Beyond lower rates, the other key trend in the bond markets is
widening credit spreads, or the difference between the yields of U.S. Treasuries and credit instruments of comparable maturity.
What's more, just like the September - October pullback of 2014, market internals have been deteriorating at a noteworthy pace, whether one is looking at waning breadth of bullish stock participation or
widening credit spreads between investment grade and higher yielding corporates / junk corporates.
WYDE is designed to benefit from
widening credit spreads.
As I've frequently emphasized, the earliest indications of an oncoming economic shift are usually observable in the financial markets, particularly in growing deterioration across broad market internals, and
widening credit spreads between debt securities of varying creditworthiness.
Since credit spreads are one of the best indicators of economic confidence, with generally -
widening credit spreads signifying declining confidence and generally - narrowing credit spreads signifying rising confidence, it would be logical if there were a positive correlation between the gold / commodity ratio and credit spreads.
The combination of current concern surrounding Greece's
widening credit spreads and the reversal of certain macro trends led to lower client activity and a more difficult operating environment.
1:
Widening credit spreads: An increase over the past 6 months in either the spread between commercial paper and 3 - month Treasury yields, or between the Dow Corporate Bond Index yield and 10 - year Treasury yields.
Not exact matches
Credit concerns multiplied, and spreads
widened.
«You've had a modest
widening out of spreads but nothing that's too alarming which would indicate to us at least an early - stage
credit dislocation or any financial stress,» Morganlander said.
For the bull detox to truly take hold,
credit spreads will have to
widen significantly, which could in turn signal a «decisive crack» in equities, he argues.
«Last year from a reported revenue point of view, we had a positive revenue as a consequence of our
credit spreads
widening.
Credit spreads reversed to
widening in June 2007 and commodities reversed to weakening in June 2008.
«If there were greater worries about the economy or other downside risks, then we should have seen the dollar rise,
credit and swap spreads
widen, and emerging markets underperform.
My top three indicators include: a
widening of high yield
credit spreads; consecutive negative readings in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index; and a negatively sloped, or inverted, yield curve.
«While delinquencies have picked up as the
credit box
widens, levels remain below cycle averages and far from pre-crisis levels,» says Roberts.
That's one way to earn attractive yields while helping to minimize exposure to a turn in the
credit cycle and a period of spread
widening.
Bond yields are down slightly,
credit spreads have remained well behaved while
widening subtly, and there has been limited flight to traditional perceived safe havens like the U.S. dollar or gold.
Looking back over the past fifteen years, in months when high yield
credit spreads were
widening, indicating tighter financial conditions and more risk aversion, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 by an average of roughly 0.45 percent.
By contrast, in Australia there has been no noticeable
widening of risk spreads in the corporate bond market over the past year, and
credit has been easily available from intermediaries, with no reports of significant changes in banks» lending attitudes.
Credit spreads have tightened globally, and U.S. credit spreads are at the narrow end of their 17 - year range against government bonds — even after a recent wid
Credit spreads have tightened globally, and U.S.
credit spreads are at the narrow end of their 17 - year range against government bonds — even after a recent wid
credit spreads are at the narrow end of their 17 - year range against government bonds — even after a recent
widening.
Should
credit spreads continue to
widen, particularly outside the already crushed energy space, this will arguably lead to more volatility and also raise more fundamental questions as to the health of the global economy.
That means that the difference in yields or «
credit spread» between safe and risky debt has
widened sharply.
It seems to me looking at a year when the stock market has gone down a bit,
credit spreads have
widened substantially and the dollar has been very strong it is hard to say that now is the time to fire a shot across the bow of financial euphoria.
To some extent, stock market action also implies expectations for slower economic growth, though interest rate signals, such as a flat yield curve, are more suggestive of slow growth than stock market action is, and we've yet to see a substantial
widening of
credit spreads that would suggest imminent recession.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial
widening of
credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
The current
widening trend for
credit spreads dates back to mid-2014, which is when the oil price began to trend downward and obvious cracks began to appear in the global growth theme.
More recently, cracks began to appear in the US growth theme and the pace of
credit - spread
widening accelerated, leading to an accelerated rise in the gold / commodity ratio.
Financial conditions have returned to their most supportive levels in more than a year while
credit spreads have retraced more than half of their
widening.
If there were problems in the banking system, you would expect high - yield
credit to exhibit
widening.
In addition, we see
credit spreads have
widened significantly creating opportunity for
credit selection.6
In the event,
credit spreads will
widen, loss rates on loans and
credit products will accelerate, and the US economy may slowly slip into a stall.
High - yield bonds have followed suit, hitting decade - tight levels in
credit spreads in October, though they have
widened slightly since then.
A Greek exit would have left questions about the survival of the euro, likely leading to the
widening of
credit spreads in the periphery, or at least in Italy, Portugal and Spain.
Nevertheless, the difference between the rates of growth of
credit and broad money has continued to
widen, reflecting increased reliance on other funding sources, including offshore borrowing.
An unusual move by a US regulator threatens to
widen a conflict over potential manipu - lation of Hovnanian default swaps by Blackstone's
credit arm GSO.
As close as two months before the deal closed, the merger spread
widened on
credit concerns, causing Anheuser - Busch to sell at $ 64.86 a share, while the buyout offer stood at $ 70 a share.
On the play where Jones is
credited with being the fastest player in the NFL you'll see the gap
widen with Woods.
No one in the state Senate wants to take
credit for getting Kiryas Joel a $ 2 million grant to
widen some roads, which appears on the state Dormitory Authority's list of grants awarded through the State and Municipal Facilities program — a deep pork barrel that Cuomo and state lawmakers created in 2013.
She
credits Sundance Institute executive director Keri Putnam with driving the program, which feeds into her own hopes for
widening opportunities for women.
However, the loss from mobility continues to
widen in the following years, as the teacher who stays becomes eligible for earlier and earlier retirement, while the teacher who moves does not earn enough service
credit to advance the pension from age 60.
Choice among schools is a fine thing, and the U.S. has made major strides in
widening access for millions of kids via vouchers, charters, tax
credits, savings accounts, and more.
However, any such effect, if it existed, would have had to have continued into the year after the experiment was over, when the
credit gap between the statistics and remedial algebra students
widened.
And while the degree to which any particular factor gets blame or
credit for
widening or narrowing the gaps is debatable, the authors in this issue of The State Education Standard agree that differences in educational opportunity play a key role.
The classes are part of a
widening phenomenon called
credit recovery — a term that sounds more about erasing debt than advancing education but actually enables troubled students to get
credit for classes they've previously failed or didn't complete.
«But their retail profits have been pretty strong, and they
widened spreads quite well when they put up line - of -
credit rates [in 2008 - 09] That was a big boost to profits right there.»
The S&P / ISDA U.S. 150
Credit Spread Index has seen spreads
widen by 56.52 % since July 2014.
Consumers who use the debt consolidation money to
widen the open to buy on
credit cards wind up more trouble.
Many
credit unions have
widened their membership requirements to include more people; this is especially true of
credit unions that are interested in growing membership using the Internet.
The
credit default swap (CDS) market is beginning to show spreads
widening for consumer discretionary entities which is a bad signal for the economy.