A recent paper by Vecchi and Soden (preprint) published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has been widely touted in the news (and some egregiously bad editorials), and the blogosphere as suggesting that increased vertical
wind shear associated with tropical circulation changes may offset any tendencies for increased hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic due to warming oceans.
Not exact matches
Over the Atlantic basin, the amplified trough is
associated with stronger upper - level westerly
winds and stronger lower - level easterly trade
winds, both of which increase the vertical
wind shear and suppress hurricane activity.
Why can't the average tropical cyclone tap into the energy of a (baroclinic, hence
associated with
wind shear) jet stream, rather than being weakenned by it?
The dynamical ingredients
associated with
wind shear, and the triggers for releasing the latent and sensible instabilities, are critical to the problem.
In the US, the vertical
wind shear is a strong factor in estimating intensity, with stronger tornadoes
associated with higher
wind shear.
Baroclinic instability theory can therefore give no clear answer about the dependency of the wavelength on the
wind speed u 700 when assuming the variability of u 700 to be
associated with the variability of the vertical
wind shear.
The extent of ENSO
associated wind shear can be overstated.
Vertical
wind shear is
associated with shorter interannual variability.