It's our best chance of
winning constituency seats next year.
He will rely on his ability to
win the constituency seat which he easily won Falkirk West in 2011, with 55 % of the vote — 20 % more than his Labour opponent.
The d'Hondt system means that parties who have already
won constituency seats will be less likely to be allocated regional seats — balancing the first past the post system.
If a candidate is on the party list, but
wins a constituency seat, they do not receive two seats; they are instead crossed off the party list and replaced with the next candidate down.
UKIP are highly unlikely to
win any constituency seats, and it is clear that the party is focusing its efforts on winning regional seats.
Not exact matches
Seats would be
won by convincing voters across the
constituency, not just targeting action at a few swing voters.
In May's General Election, when the SNP
won Jim Murphy's East Renfrewshire
seat, it did not just topple the leader of Scottish Labour, it took a
constituency that epitomises middle Scotland.
For example, in last Sunday's election CDU
won 185
constituencies and 15 party list
seats, with FDP 0 and 80, respectively.
This system is designed to avoid a situation where a party receives a large share of the votes in an area but doesn't actually get many
seats (e.g. coming a close second in every
constituency but not
winning any).
The candidate with the most votes
wins the
seat and becomes the Member of Parliament for your
constituency.
Labour have continued to
win seats in their core
constituencies because the majority of their old supporters refuse to vote for other parties but those are slowly dying off.
According to her, the NDC had come very far with developmental projects in the
constituency and will
win the
seat in the general election.
Such is the weight of expectation on Nicola Sturgeon's shoulders that failure by the SNP to
win each and every one of the Scottish Parliament's 73
constituencies (leaving other parties to pick up
seats decided under a proportional representation system) would be seen as some kind of failure.
Speaking at the campaign launch of the deputy Central regional minister and parliamentary candidate for the Agona East
Constituency, Queenstar Pokuaa Sawyer, Mr. Asiedu Nketia popularly known as «General Mosquito» alleged that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have hatched a plan to embarrass the vice president by
winning more
seats in the Central region to send a message to Ghanaians that the vice president is not popular and influential even in his own region.
Even though political watchers say the NDC's chances of
winning back the
seat was very bright, bickering among the leadership of the party in the
constituency is likely to give the incumbent independent MP, Dahamani Alhassan leverage should he decide to seek reelection.
My model takes into account five things: the vote share a party received in the by - election
constituency at the preceding general election; changes in public opinion towards the party since the last general election; whether the party
won the
seat at the last election; whether the party is in government; and whether there are «party effects» on by - election outcomes.
There's always a chance that Kezia's national presence will benefit her at the local ballot box, but as the first capital
constituency to turn to the SNP it seems likely that Ash Regan - Denham will
win this
seat.
Remarkably Lamont came within 328 votes (and a fraught early morning recount) of leading the Conservatives to
winning a second Westminster
seat in the equivalent 2015 general election
constituency, which would have made the Conservatives the second largest Scottish party in the House of Commons.
The regional lists are considered to be of crucial importance to Labour because polls indicate the SNP could
win almost all of the 73
constituency seats on offer in May.
[11][12] She first stood for election in the 1992 general election as the SNP candidate in the Glasgow Shettleston
constituency, and was the youngest parliamentary candidate in Scotland, failing to
win the
seat.
Miles Briggs on the other hand is very likely to take a regional
seat even if he fails to
win votes in the
constituency as the Conservatives have placed him second on the list, behind Ruth Davidson.
That means that, if anything, estimates of how many
seats the SNP might
win that are derived by assuming that the Scotland - wide movement uncovered by a poll would be replicated in each and every
constituency in Scotland could actually underestimate the scale of SNP gains.
All the parties are busy viewing the outcome through a Westminster
constituency lens, leading the Scottish Conservatives to believe they could
win as many as 15
seats next month and, perhaps even more ambitiously, Scottish Labour an additional seven.
Plaid Cymru say the plans are motivated by «self interest», and certainly Labour did
win 70 % of the
constituency seats in May with 42 % of the vote (60 % with 32 % of the vote in 2007).
The party lost 13
constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament last night and
won just three - leaving the Conservative Party as the official opposition in Holyrood
In the London Assembly Labour
won 9 out of 14
constituency seats - seizing Merton & Wandsworth in posh South West London from the Tories.
(unless the allocation of list
seats to a party is made conditional on
winning a
constituency).
Voting statistics for
constituencies in which Labour
won seats at the 1987 General Election.
UKIP's capacity to change
constituency - level outcomes by grabbing 15 - 25 % of the votes in key
seats will matter just as much as its potential to
win further
seats outright.
Seat Estimates: Based on these constituency estimates and using a d'Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, the party seat levels are estimated as foll
Seat Estimates: Based on these
constituency estimates and using a d'Hondt method to determine which party
wins the
seats in a
constituency, the party
seat levels are estimated as foll
seat levels are estimated as follows:
On these national support figures and assuming they would be contesting at least thirty
constituencies, the Labour Party would need a lot of luck to
win more than one or two
seats in terms of their total number of
seats at a general election contest.
The best result at the
constituency, or electoral area, level for Labour in the 2014 Local Elections came in Athy, where Labour
won 27.0 % of the first preference votes and took two of the six
seats in that electoral area.
While neither candidate was in serious contention to
win a
seat at any stage during the counts (although Murphy did move within 2,474 votes of Nessa Childers on the 3rd Count following the distribution of Brid Smith's preferences — he
won 31.3 % of these), the extent of their transfers to Nessa Childers helped her to take the second
seat in this
constituency.
In cases where party support fell to as low as 4 % or 5 % nationally, as in the case with the April 19th Irish Times - Ipsos MRBI poll, Labour would face a struggle to
win seats in every
constituency in the state, even in their strongest areas.
Previous analyses have, moreover, suggested that, especially given the increased competition on the Left from Sinn Fein, other smaller left of centre parties and left - leaning independents, that it will be a struggle for Labour to
win seats in most, if not all,
constituencies if the party's national support levels fall below the ten percent level, as has been shown in similar analyses of recent Sunday Independent - Millward Brown and Irish Times - Ipsos MRBI polls.
On the 4 % support level evident across all of these polls, Labour would face a struggle to
win seats in every
constituency in the state, even in their strongest
constituencies.
(If we look at the 1987 case study — we see Labour
won 6.5 % of the vote in the 1987 General Election and
won 12
seats, but it is also worth noting that they did not contest nine
constituencies in that election, whereas their 7 % national vote is being distributed across all forty
constituencies in this analysis, as with the most recent general elections in which Labour has contested all
constituencies.
In cases where party support fell to as low as 4 % or 5 % nationally, Labour would face a struggle to
win seats in every
constituency in the state, even in their strongest areas.
The Liberal Democrats held on to the Hampshire
seat of Eastleigh, and their
winning candidate Mike Thornton has said «there is no greater honour» than to represent the
constituency.
If the party had managed to
win such slightly higher support levels in the last general election in the 13
constituencies that fall into this category, then Labour would have ended up
winning 50
seats at the election, and the overall
seat tallies by party would have looked as follows: Fine Gael 73, Labour 50, Fianna Fail 17, Sinn Fein 11, United Left Alliance 3, Others 12.
In areas where the governing parties were weak, four -
seat constituencies were used so that the governing parties had a strong chance of still
winning two.
She will be looking to
win the Ablekuma North
seat from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) who will be represented by to Nana Akua Owusu - Afriyie, onetime Ablekuma North
Constituency Women Organiser of the NPP.
The Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie also now has the kudos of a
constituency seat, as does Ruth Davidson, who surprised herself by
winning Edinburgh Central under first - past - the - post.
That could see the nationalists, who
won six
seats in the House of Commons in 2010, return 47 MPs this time around, with Labour losing all but 10 of the 41 Scottish
constituencies it secured in in the last general election.
When the boundaries were changed in 1997 he failed to
win selection for the new
seat, and instead stood in the London
constituency of Bromley and Chiselhurst, where he remained until his death.
The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft's
constituency polling, focussing on Lib Dem must -
win seats and released in the runup to the conference, showed just how important it is for the party.
He needs a 6.25 % swing to take the
seat from Labour, making Barrow - in - Furness exactly the kind of
constituency David Cameron needs to
win in order to form a government.
The
constituency seat has been a reserve of the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), but the ruling NDC is keen on
winning it and others, through its «Agenda 50 ″ plan to secure at least half of the parliamentary
seats in the Eastern Region.
The NDC's Emmanuel Akolbire Opam - Brown in 2008 (before the Bolgatanga
Constituency was divided into the Central and the East)
won the
seat with 28,656 (57.7 %) votes.
If the SNP surged to the same extent in each
constituency, it would
win 48
seats, with Labour reduced to nine and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats one each.