When you add the divisiveness of the film and its «take on race» backlash (which may or may not invade voters» choices) you have a film that can not
win on a preferential ballot.
But then again, it's not a film that normally can
win on a preferential ballot.
I mentioned over the weekend that Shape is the type of film that can
win on a preferential ballot by virtue of garnering an overwhelming tally of first - place votes, ending the contest in the first round of counting.
With The Revenant, it didn't have the SAG ensemble stat, so I was not sure it could
win on a preferential ballot.
Men still have the majority in the Academy, which could explain why films with male protagonists have consistently
won on the preferential ballot since 2009.
Not exact matches
It would be near the bottom of my own
preferential ballot, however, and that's why I'll ask you this: What's your gun - to - head guess
on what's going to
win next weekend, and how would you have filled out your own Best Picture dance card, given what's nominated?
Two films that
won the New York Film Critics Circle went
on to
win Best Picture in the
preferential ballot era: The Artist in 2011 and The Hurt Locker in 2009.
But if Get Out or Lady Bird
wins there, I would suspect that is your Best Picture winner
on a
preferential ballot.
It was just the start, as the film went
on to secure a number of Best Picture nominations and
win the Producer's Guild of America's top prize (which has aligned with the Oscar's Best Picture
on almost every recent year, since both organizations switched to a
preferential ballot).
Interestingly enough, the Oscar curve may not be a bell curve because the
preferential ballot may have an effect
on what
wins.
Momentum and the
preferential ballot just might propel horror film to surprise
win on Sunday night.
So where a movie like The Hurt Locker or No Country for Old Men or The Departed could
win based
on passion and a push to
win them Oscars, the
preferential ballot doesn't really allow for that as much.
The Big Short most significantly
won the PGA
on a
preferential ballot — the only other
preferential ballot in the race besides the Oscars.
Three Billboards «chances at
winning come down to this: is the movie truly a love - it - or - hate - it affair, which would likely doom it with the
preferential ballot, or are the hate - its all
on Twitter and the love - its all in the Academy?