The answer lies in the East
Asian winter monsoon winds and it's a continuation of the changes we're already seeing.
Moreover, its forecast skill during the early
winter monsoon period is poorer than during the late period.
During phases of strong solar activity the Siberian highs were more intense, which led to
stronger winter monsoons with reduced precipitation.
The dust - induced thermal contrast changes between the Eurasian continent and the surrounding oceans are found to trigger or modulate a rapidly varying or unstable Asian
winter monsoon circulation, with a feedback to reduce the dust emission from its sources (Zhang et al., 2002).
The cool, dry westerly and northwesterly winds — driven by the East
Asian winter monsoon (pdf) circulation — typically blow pollutants away from the city.
This combination of cooling and heating may be altering
the winter monsoon.
Conducted in 1999, INDOEX exploited a unique occurrence during
the winter monsoon in which air currents carry pollutants from India and Southeast Asia in a southern direction out over the open ocean.
As a result, during
the winter monsoon season, eastern China experiences weaker winds when there's less natural dust in the air.
Over Asia in particular, the cold high - pressure system is sufficiently permanent that a persistent offshore flow called
the winter monsoon occurs.
Under greenhouse warming, the land is warming faster than the ocean, reducing the difference in temperature between the land and the ocean, which reduces the strength of
the winter monsoon.
Based on this, a simple idea is that the summer monsoon will be stronger and
the winter monsoon will be weaker in the future than the present.