Not exact matches
Together with his AWI colleague Dr Stefan Hendricks, they evaluated the
sea ice thickness measurements taken over the past five
winters by the CyroSat - 2 satellite for their
sea ice projection.
If we compare the
ice thickness map of the previous
winter with that of 2012, we can see that the current
ice conditions are similar to those of the spring of 2012 — in some places, the
ice is even thinner,» Dr Marcel Nicolaus,
sea ice physicist at AWI, said today at a press conference during the EGU General Assembly in Vienna.
Rising polar temperatures caused the average
thickness of
winter Arctic
sea ice to decrease from about 12 feet to 6 feet between 1978 and 2008, and thinner
ice melts more readily.
This is because the «early camp» are missing a major factor, even though most of them don't know it: That factor is that first year
sea ice will continue to grow to
thicknesses of around 1.5 to 2m through the
winter, so the key issue in whether September can be virtually
sea -
ice free is how much
sea ice can be lost between March and September.
Sea ice less than one year old was somewhat thicker than has been observed in recent years, with a modal
thickness around 1.8 m, after one of the coldest North American
winters in recent years.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of -
winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of -
winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as
winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of -
winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as
winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
It is likely that there has been about a 40 percent decline in Arctic
sea -
ice thickness during late summer to early autumn in recent decades and a considerably slower decline in
winter sea -
ice thickness.
Based on
winter air temperatures and
sea ice extents and
thickness, a September 2016 minimum
ice extent value of 4.3 million km2 is heuristically predicted.
As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of -
winter Arctic
ice thickness / extent, as well as
winter surface air temperature, spring
ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predictors.
Now, the complete 2010 — 11
winter season data have been processed to produce a seasonal variation map of
sea -
ice thickness.
We usually focus on summer because that's the most dramatic, but now the
winter is starting to respond,» said Stroeve, who just returned from an Arctic expedition where she measured
sea -
ice thickness.
9000000 km ^ 2 Arctic
sea ice melt spring — summer 1.8 e +13 m ^ 3 at a 2m average
thickness — this is generous — see http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php 917 kg / m ^ 3 for
ice 1.6506 e +16 kg / year 5.513004 e +21 joules 0.143 percent going into
ice melt spring — summer; BUT, a roughly equal amount comes back out during the refreeze in the fall —
winter; and since it's floating, it doesn't effect
sea level.
The research, reported in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that last
winter the average
thickness of
sea ice over the whole Arctic fell by 26 cm (10 %) compared with the average
thickness of the previous five
winters, but
sea ice in the western Arctic lost around 49 cm of
thickness.
Last
winter the average
thickness of
sea ice over the whole Arctic fell by 26 cm (10 %) compared with the average
thickness of the previous five
winters, but
sea ice in the western Arctic lost around 49 cm of
thickness.
Global Climate Change Record 10 - 19 % Declines Seen in Arctic
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