Buck - busters cited the record low short - term interest rates,
with the fed funds target rate at 0 - 0.25 %, even lower than in Japan.
One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly
with fed funds.
HELOC rates move in lock - step
with Fed Funds because the Prime Rate is comprised of the Fed Funds Rate plus three percent.
With Fed Funds, you can understand how the announcement alone can change the rate by understanding a) that the entire variation in bank reserves that determines the Fed Funds rate amounts to only a few billion dollars, and b) banks are generally willing to follow the rate «called out» by the Fed so long as it doesn't affect the spread they earn.
Fed and HELOC rates were at rock bottom from the 2008 crisis until December 2015,
with Fed Funds at.25 percent and Prime at 3.25 percent.
The Fed then provided free money to their Wall Street bank owners
with a Fed Funds rate of 0 % for the next 6 years.
The Fed's attention is now directed at establishing a safety margin
with the Fed funds rate well above zero so that it can cut rates when the next recession arrives.
Whatever difficulties stock selection strategies faced
with the Fed Funds rate at zero are likely to persist at 25 basis points.
My questions: how low do we go
with the Fed funds rate, and how much will price inflation run in the process?
During older times, the end of a Fed loosening cycle would end
with the Fed funds rate rising.
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a short - term rate tied very closely
with Fed Funds rate, which is the overnight interbank lending rate in the US.
One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly
with fed funds.
The Fed can do whatever it wants
with Fed funds — heck, barely anyone is using it anyway — ...
Rates on fixed mortgages — such as the 30 - year for purchases and the 15 - year for refinances — don't follow in lockstep
with the fed funds rate — it's actually tied more closely to the yield on the 10 - year Treasury note, which is also on the rise.
As
with Fed funds, reverse repo rates, Interest on excess reserves, and LIBOR, the price of gold pings an important signal as to risk, the cost of capital, the state of the financial markets, and economic well - being in general.
Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of G - 10 FX Strategy, says to not get too obsessed
with the Fed funds rate.
Not exact matches
«The current pace of repricing in
fed funds is not immediately problematic for the Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips with the possibility of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen sa
fed funds is not immediately problematic for the
Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips with the possibility of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen sa
Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips
with the possibility of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen said.
Competition for cash has returned
with a vengeance, after the
Fed stifled it in 2008 to keep the cost of
funding for banks to near zero so that they could maximize their profits in order to rebuild their capital after teetering on the verge of collapse.
For her part, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in June that the removal of the
Fed as a prop in October might not coincide
with an immediate increase in its federal
funds rate, which has hovered near zero since the financial crisis began.
The
fund manager insists it is time for the
Fed to address this issue by requiring compliance
with a
Fed surveillance team as a condition of primary dealer status.
«I don't see raising the target range for the
fed funds rate above its current low level in 2015 as being consistent
with the pursuit of the kind of labor market outcomes that we are charged
with delivering,» he said.
Continuing
with our earlier discussion, betting against the FOMC's dot plot accelerated on Friday, as the
Fed Funds futures spiked.
Fed funds futures market point the near - certainty of a move at next week's meeting,
with two more indicated through the year and a 1 in 3 chance for a fourth increase in December.
Investors fight to
fund these much - celebrated, much - cited companies — the Ubers, Snapchats and Slacks of Silicon Valley —
feeding them
with more money than they can conceivably need.
Though all measures of inflation were coming down as summer turned to fall and the economy clearly was slowing following a July brush
with $ 4 - a-gallon gasoline, the FOMC decided to hold the
fed funds rate at 2 %, concluding that «the downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the committee.»
With the 10 - year yield (risk free rate) at roughly 2.55 %, and the
Fed Funds rate at 1.5 % (two more 0.25 % hikes are expected in 2018), it's hard to see interest rates declining much further.
On Friday, traders on the
fed -
fund futures market saw a 38 % chance of a total of four hikes this year, compared
with 24.5 % on April.
Besides, the
Fed can't really monetize the debt
with a positive
Fed Funds rate target.
Additionally, the
Fed funds rate influences the prime rate, the interest rate awarded to bank customers
with the best credit, which is tied to various loans and savings account yields.
DR's simulations assume that last dot climbs in time to give the
Fed some height to drop from when the next downturn hits (importantly, he stresses that the neutral
funds rate is very likely lower than it used to be), but, as I argue in the piece,
with some evidence from market expectations of the
funds rate, I'm skeptical.
Historically, the
Fed has responded to recession by cutting rates substantially,
with the benchmark
funds rate falling by 400 basis points or more in the context of downturns over the past two generations.
That will be tricky given that 10 - year Treasuries currently yield below 2.20 per cent and this would decline precipitously
with a recession and any move to cut
Fed funds.
What I mean is that there is not a management
feed associated
with an underlying mutual
fund and then the PC management fee.
Firms must be able to execute RRPs
with securities margined at 100 % (i.e. the value of the securities provided by the New York
Fed will equal the
funds provided by the counterparty).
But it will be many, many years from now, and if we end up
with Volcker style
Fed fund rates before then — as you seem to believe — it won't be because the Treasury was trying to surreptitiously inflate away the national debt.
To deal
with problems in commercial paper market, the
Fed introduced on October 27 the Commercial Paper
Funding Facility (CPFF) to backstop issues of commercial paper.
But panelist Daniel Greenhaus, chief global strategist at institutional trading brokerage BTIG, who makes appearances on Bloomberg TV and works
with clients in the hedge
fund world, said that hedgies take a longer view and avoid the noise in the blogosphere: «If you talk to George Soros, all he wants is the big picture view of QE tapering: «When will the
Fed stop buying back bonds?
In fact, even
with this month's latest boost, the sixth, the
fed funds rate is still just 1 5/8 % (at its mid-point).
Interest rates have continued to be pushed lower and lower and lower and most of this is because the
Fed keeps on adjusting that federal
fund's rate and adjusting interest rates down in the way that they do that is by putting cash into the market and buying back bonds or short - term bonds
with the federal
fund's rate.
By paying interest on excess reserves (IOER), the
Fed rewards banks for keeping balances beyond what they need to meet their legal requirements; and by making overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON - RRP)
with various GSEs and money - market
funds, it gets those institutions to lend
funds to it.
Currently I can't find evidence that the
Fed is printing money to fuel this stock market so I have to believe that it has relaxed credit standards to enable banks, hedge
funds and mutual
funds (yes, many mutual
funds now have the ability to tap credit lines) to borrow money
with which to chase stocks.
Today, in contrast, the
Fed presides over a vast portfolio,
with assets consisting mainly of long - term Treasury securities and mortgage - backed securities, instead of the short - term Treasuries it once held; and that portfolio is
funded more by banks» holdings of substantial excess reserves than by circulating Federal Reserve notes.
The OCC's findings are consistent
with more recent surveys: The
Fed's October survey of senior U.S. loan officers found a growing number loosening standards for commercial and industrial loans, often by narrowing the spread between the interest rate on the loan and the cost of
funds to the bank.
Many people are familiar
with the
FED's monetary policy responsibilities, including the FOMC meetings, Federal Funds Rate decisions, Fed Chair's press conference, as well as various unconventional polici
FED's monetary policy responsibilities, including the FOMC meetings, Federal
Funds Rate decisions,
Fed Chair's press conference, as well as various unconventional polici
Fed Chair's press conference, as well as various unconventional policies.
In keeping
with this added cautiousness, members of the FOMC revised down their median projections for the
Fed funds rate to 0.875 % by end - 2016 and 1.875 % by end - 2017, roughly equivalent to two hikes in 2016 (from four projected in December) and four in 2017, while keeping their economic forecast broadly unchanged.
The US and European banks were probably given the
funds by the
Fed with strict instructions to push the equity market higher and use as much leverage as possible.
Market prices in March
Fed move The week began
with markets pricing in about a 50 % chance of a hike in the federal
funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this month but ended
with markets almost fully pricing in a quarter - percent hike.
In the meantime, he may be trusting that U.S. financial institutions
with $ 1.9 trillion of excess reserves —
funded wholly by the
Fed's quantitative easing — will keep banks afloat
with enough of a cushion to withstand any coming storm.
With the huge number of
funds having moved into ETFs, once the
Fed acts to withdraw stimulus and the market peaks, investors will all be trying to exit out of the same doorway.
[3] In particular, the
Fed has used ON RPPs to encourage MMMFs and GSE's to lend to (or park
funds with) it, and to thereby reduce the quantity of Federal Reserve dollars available to banks.