Not exact matches
Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, are using already available satellite measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a main components of volcanic
emissions, along
with the more recent ability to map the location and vertical profiles of volcanic
aerosols.
Scientists have already linked
aerosol emissions to increases in lightning over areas of the Amazon prone to forest fires (pdf) as well as regions of China
with thick air pollution.
The obvious error is that they thought it was news that
aerosol emissions have partially cancelled out some of the warming one would expect
with greenhouse gas
emissions.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different,
with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2 levels).
When
aerosols from human activities such as industrial plant and vehicle
emissions are added to the system, the energy budget has to deal
with the increase.
Titled «Initiation of Snowball Earth
with volcanic sulfur
aerosol emissions,» the study posits a hypothesis by two researchers from Harvard University's John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS).
Analyses of the ground and aircraft data performed by Setyan et al. (2012), Shilling et al. (2013), and Kleinman et al. (2016) showed that organic
aerosol production increased when human - caused
emissions from Sacramento mixed
with air rich in isoprene, an organic compound wafting from many plants that originate in the area's foothills.
Also, the idea is to keep warming below +1.5 ºC even
with the current energy imbalance (warming in the pipeline) and reductions in
aerosols that accompany
emissions reductions (though Hansen says the impact of
aerosols from fossil fuels was overstated and other manmade
aerosols seem to dominate).
Gavin: «The obvious error is that they thought it was news that
aerosol emissions have partially cancelled out some of the warming one would expect
with greenhouse gas
emissions.
Ideas that we should increase
aerosol emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a «Faustian bargain» because that would imply an ever increasing amount of
emissions in order to match the accumulated GHG in the atmosphere,
with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
[Response:
Aerosol forcings in the GISS model are derived from externally produced
emission inventories, combined
with online calculations of transport, deposition, settling etc..
I agree that targeting 2C rather than nothing is a start — but is it a start in the right direction or will we be confronted
with a whole new set of excuses ranging from «we don't have to do anything because of the «current» trend» or «we'll put up an
aerosol emission program as soon as 1.9 C have been reached» or «our scientists say we'll never reach the 2C anyway and we don't care what your scientists say» or other ideas like that?
The obvious error is that they thought it was news that
aerosol emissions have partially cancelled out some of the warming one would expect
with greenhouse gas
emissions.
Thus to keep up
with the CO2 warming, the
emissions of
aerosols would have to go up exponentially.
Agree
with Mr. Richards (31) that a «budget» for 1.5 C has already been exceeded — due e.g. to «thermal response factor» (Hansen), present
aerosol dimming, further
emissions during energy transition, unfolding climate feedbacks and planetary response to actual total carbon dioxide eguivalent.
Regarding fine
aerosols, as suggested by David, there are huge increases in industrial activity in SE Asia since 1975, but that is a rather linear expansion, where SO2
emissions are in lockstep
with more dirtier
aerosols.
Anything above VEI 3 will likely have some effect on stratospheric
aerosols, (although the amount of sulfur
emissions don't correlate precisely
with VEI index).
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more
emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different,
with much less relative influence of
aerosols than today (due to faster increasing CO2 levels).
The declining signal over India shown by the GPCP decadal mode is broadly consistent
with gauge measurements since the 1950s — that several research groups including my own are trying to understand, perhaps relating to
emissions of anthropogenic
aerosol — although there are discrepancies between these gauge - based data sets themselves (see our recent review in Nature Climate Change, for example).
Such is the case for the explanation — popular
with the press when it was first proposed — that an increase in
aerosol emissions, particularly from China, was acting to help offset the warming influence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide
emissions.
While developed countries and regions have long been culprits for Earth's rising greenhouse gas
emissions, Cornell researchers — balancing the role of
aerosols along
with carbons in the equation — now predict a time when developing countries will contribute more to climate change than advanced societies: 2030.
Levels of
aerosol emissions have soared since the 1950s,
with the most common sources being power stations and cars.
The fact that agricultural
emissions must combine
with other pollutants to make
aerosols «is good news,» said Bauer.
Natural
aerosols such as dust and sea salt also play an important role in climate and their
emissions and interactions differed significantly among the models,
with consequences to the role of short - lived pollutants.
«We use 1280 years of control simulation,
with constant preindustrial forcings including constant specified CO2, and a five - member ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 — 2005 including prescribed historical greenhouse gas concentrations, SO2 and other
aerosol - precursor
emissions, land use changes, solar irradiance changes, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, and volcanic
aerosol (ALL), following the recommended CMIP5 specifications.
Physically, the response is also very different if the
aerosol emission is into a part of the atmosphere
with or without clouds.
First, the complicated models that develop
emissions scenarios don't seem to be necessary for forcing the climate models; simply specifying a value of CO2 concentration (
with the other greenhouse gases and anthropogenic
aerosol) at 2100 along
with a simple time trajectory is sufficient to force the climate model.
(3) Is supported by the period of» global brightening» which occurred roughly simultaneously
with significant reductions in
aerosol emissions (around 1985), and which ended when Eastern
emissions began to increase.
Surely, it does not all hang on the fact that Europle cleaned up its
aerosol emissions and therefore anthropogenic warming very likely slightly or moderately outedges natural warming compared
with 200 years ago, and if Europe had not cleaned up its act a little and temperatures were 0.2 C lower today, global warming would be a non issue.
Emissions -
Emissions of heat - trapping gases (greenhouse gases), greenhouse - gas precursors, and
aerosols associated
with human activities.
The best coping mechanisms involve building societal resilience in ways that are not merely compatible
with emissions mitigation — but absolutely essential in a broad strategy involving multiple gases,
aerosols, population and conservation.
Nations collectively to begin to reduce sharply global atmospheric
emissions of greenhouse gases and absorbing
aerosols,
with the goal of urgently halting their accumulation in the atmosphere and holding atmospheric levels at their lowest practicable value;
Consequently, the most advanced climate models now require, in addition to concentrations or
emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons),
emissions of reactive gases and
aerosol precursor compounds (SO2, NOx, VOC, BC, OC and NH3), to model atmospheric chemistry and interactions
with the climate system.6 For most variables, a sectoral differentiation would improve the quality of the calculations (e.g. from power plants and agricultural burning).
Aerosol emissions associated
with fossil fuels are masking approximately 1/2 of the total energy imbalance experienced by planet earth.
They concluded that
with a bit of help from changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth in the volume of
aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas
emissions over the period 1998 - 2008.
Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations of variables
with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences like human
aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
All of these studies find that humans are responsible for close to 100 % of the observed global warming over the past 50 years, and human greenhouse gas
emissions are responsible for close to 150 % of the observed warming,
with human
aerosol (sulfur dioxide - SO2)
emissions offsetting approximately one - third to one - half of that greenhouse warming.
«About» ought to be in italics because we really don't know how much cooling is caused by other
emissions, like particulate
aerosols that go up the smokestack along
with the carbon dioxide.
Additional runs for 2000
with 1850 climate and for 2030 and 2100 (RCP 8.5)
with 2000
emissions are designed to separate the effects of climate change on constituents and for isolating
aerosol indirect effects more cleanly using the clear - sky / all - sky flux diagnostics.
The other side of the coin is that for long term warming, the cumulative
emissions of CO2 are dominant, even if in the short term changes in its
emission are relatively ineffectual, even more so because they are often combined
with emissions of cooling
aerosols.
For the runs
with different
emission and «climate» years, e.g. Em2000Cl1850,
emissions of
aerosol and ozone precursors are set to 2000, methane amounts for chemistry are set to 2000, but ozone and methane at 2000 do not affect the radiation (i.e. radiation sees 1850 «climate» conditions for everything but
aerosols).
The geographical shifts of
emissions sources over the past 30 years,
with reductions in N.America & Europe and increases in Africa & South Asia, mean that we actually do expect the zonal
aerosol forcing pattern described.
@Mikel: Russian was perhaps not directly affected from
aerosols, but european
emissions got advected towards Russia and the Arctic
with the prevalent westerly winds.
The response of biogenic secondary organic carbon
aerosol production to a temperature change, however, could be considerably lower than the response of biogenic VOC
emissions since
aerosol yields can decrease
with increasing temperature.
Vegetation cover changes caused by land use can alter regional and global climate through both biogeochemical (
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols) and biogeophysical (albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface roughness) feedbacks
with the atmosphere,
with reverse effects following land abandonment, reforestation, and other vegetation recoveries (107).
Eli: The real issue
with BC forcing is that it is not global, but intensely local, depending not only on
emissions (Asian brown cloud) but also absorptions (Greenland darkening) I guess the question for me is, are there any
aerosol forcings that are truly global?
However, there have been proposals to mitigate climate change not by decreasing greenhouse gas
emissions, but by increasing the reflection of incoming solar radiation
with mirrors,
aerosols (small particles), or other means.
They come up
with all kinds of hypothetical feedback mechanisms involving more natural
aerosol emissions in response to global warming: Dimethylsulfide from marine phytoplankton (although a very intriguing possibility, this has never been confirmed to be a significant feedback mechanism, and there is ample evidence to the contrary, which is omitted from the report), biological
aerosols (idem), carbonyl sulfide (idem), nitrous oxide (idem), and iodocompounds (idem), about which they write the following: «Iodocompounds — created by marine algae — function as cloud condensation nuclei, which help create new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space and thereby cool the planet.»
The NRC notes that «small - scale field experiments
with controlled
emissions [e.g. releasing reflecting
aerosols into the atmosphere] may....
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary albedo and does not include
aerosol related albedo changes such as associated
with Mt. Pinatubo, or human
emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).