For example, there are certain time constants associated
with atmospheric response, upper ocean response, deep ocean response, and so forth.
Not exact matches
With the need to evaluate
atmospheric conditions, bioindicators — organisms whose
response to environmental changes indicates the health of an ecosystem — have attracted considerable attention.
To arrive at their results, the researchers combined observations from the past century
with climate simulations of the
atmospheric response to the AMO.
For the study, Gentine and Lemordant took Earth system models
with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and
atmospheric (radiative) CO2
responses and used a multi-model statistical analysis from CMIP5, the most current set of coordinated climate model experiments set up as an international cooperation project for the International Panel on Climate Change.
«These results suggest that continuing increases in
atmospheric CO2 associated
with global climate change will increase both the level of Alternaria exposure and antigenicity [the ability to produce an immune
response] of spores that come in contact
with the airways.»
The Hansen et al study (2004) on target
atmospheric CO2 and climate sensitivity is quite clear on this topic: equilibrium
responses would double the GCM - based estimates,
with very little to be said about transient effects.
Regional trends are notoriously problematic for models, and seems more likely to me that the underprediction of European warming has to do
with either the modeled ocean temperature pattern, the modelled
atmospheric response to this pattern, or some problem related to the local hydrological cycle and boundary layer moisture dynamics.
«We know rather little about how much methane comes from different sources and how these have been changing in
response to industrial and agricultural activities or because of climate events like droughts,» says Hinrich Schaefer, an
atmospheric scientist at the National Institute of Water and
Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand, who collaborates
with Petrenko.
[
Response: I agree that there are serious problems
with the representation of
atmospheric feedbacks in the model, but the lack of a fourth - power dependence in infrared emission vs T is not the key one them.
It feels nothing short of rabid in a straight line,
with the kind of throttle
response that only ever comes from a big,
atmospheric engine that revs high and hits hard, everywhere.
Constant upstream air pressure,
atmospheric for naturally aspirated and higher for turbocharged engines, together
with the extremely fast air mass control, cylinder - by - cylinder and stroke - by - stroke, result in a superior dynamic engine
response.
Presumably the water vapour feedback in models is dealt
with by determining / estimating / calculating the radiative forcing from water vapour and then making some assumption about the water vapour
response to
atmospheric warming (e.g. assuming constant relative humidity).
Zhang, J., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2010), Arctic sea ice
response to
atmospheric forcings
with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability, Geophys.
The
response to the model to varied snow cover did not resemble the PNA pattern but instead was much closer an
atmospheric pattern associated
with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) or AO / NAM (Arctic Oscillation or Northern Annular Mode).
Geoff Beacon, before betting too much check papers like Zhang et al. «Arctic sea ice
response to
atmospheric forcings
with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability».
None of this contradicts the piece on SKS, which is dealing solely
with how long it takes for the oceans to warm fully in
response to the increase in
atmospheric temperature.
Those projections are detailed in Zhang et al, 2010 «Arctic sea ice
response to
atmospheric forcings
with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability.»
However, another major issue is that of attribution based on the thermodynamic state
responses to global warming vs. the
atmospheric dynamics,
with the latter being far more problematic:
I know of no climate scientist who would do experiments fixing land temperatures and observing the
atmospheric response, and
with good reason.
In the most general sense, upper
atmospheric cooling is a
response to a forcing (reduction in net upward LW + SW radiation) that falls
with height through the upper atmosphere.
Once the ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical processes provide a negative feedback by changing
atmospheric CO2 in
response to climate changes, but this is generally very slow, and thus can not prevent faster changes from faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined
with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
His estimate for the surface temperature rise due to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 for the zero feedback case is 0.5 C which is further reduced to 0.3 C due to negative feedback caused by the increase in planetary clouds which is in agreement
with Idso's experimental analysis to determine the planet's
response to a change in forcing.
However, research has remained consistent
with the IPCC range of 2 — 4.5 °C equilibrium warming in
response to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2.
Of course «plants
with different forms of metabolism (C3, C4 and CAM) will react differently» to enhanced levels of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, but as thousands of peer - reviewed studies have shown, the
response is nonetheless near universal and overwhelmingly positive in all three major plant types.
The inertia, especially of the ocean and ice sheets, allows us to introduce powerful climate forcings such as
atmospheric CO2
with only moderate initial
response.
As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models
with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in
response to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).
You can see in section four and related figures that the progression continues, next including the Pacific and ice in the East Eurasian Arctic in stage three, and then anomaly trends come to a close in stage four,
with cumulative effects on ice, heat flux,
atmospheric response, etc..
There are several pathways of photosynthesis
with different
responses to
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
QRA can be regarded as an extension of the Haurwitz - type mechanism (42) of a strong increase in the amplitude of the midlatitude
atmospheric barotropic wave system
response to stationary external barotropic thermal forcing,
with a spatial frequency m approaching the natural stationary spatial frequency k of the wave system, to the case of external barotropic thermal and orographic forcing under a latitude - dependent u ¯ and an integer m over the midlatitude belt on the spherical Earth.
Each of these components, C1, C2 and C3, is then associated
with some fraction of the emissions into the atmosphere, E, and a particular removal mechanism: where b3 (= 0.1) is a fixed constant representing the Revelle buffer factor, and b1 is a fixed constant such that b1 + b3 = 0.3 [11]; b1 represents the fraction of
atmospheric CO2 that would remain in the atmosphere following an injection of carbon in the absence of the equilibrium
response and ocean advection; b0 represents an adjustable time constant, the inverse of which is of order 200 years.
The surface temperature
response, T, to a given change in
atmospheric CO2 is calculated from an energy balance equation for the surface,
with heat removed either by a radiative damping term or by diffusion into the deep ocean.
A shift in
atmospheric circulation in
response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent
with atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model.
panel cautions that trends in such short periods of record
with arbitrary start and end points are not necessarily representative of how the atmosphere is changing in
response to long - term human - induced changes in
atmospheric composition.
3 Further complicating the
response of the different
atmospheric levels to increases in greenhouse gases are other processes such as those associated
with changes in the concentration and distribution of
atmospheric water vapor and clouds.
I don't have any problem
with the fact that there are many time frames over which
atmospheric CO2 would respond if emissions were to stop, though I think there is far more uncertainty in the estimates of
response over time than is usually acknowledged, and that people
with «agendas» consistently discount the
response times that do not support their policy positions.
The position statement opens
with the following: «Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth's climate system is changing rapidly in
response to growing
atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007).
With all of the negative effects predicted to occur in
response to the ongoing rise in the air's carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration — a result of burning fossil fuels to produce energy — it is only natural to want to see what has been happening to our Earth's many ecosystems as the
atmospheric carbon dioxide load has risen.
The IPCC FAR ran simulations using models
with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in
response to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) of 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high) for doubled CO2 (Figure 1).
While actual scientists are trying to piece together every little part of an otherwise almost un-piecable long term chaotic and variable system in
response now to a massive increase in net lower
atmospheric energy absorption and re radiation, Curry is busy — much like most of the comments on this site most of the time — trying to come up
with or re-post every possible argument under the sun to all but argue against the basic concept that radically altering the atmosphere on a multi million year basis is going to affect the net energy balance of earth, which over time is going to translate into a very different climate (and ocean level) than the one we've comfortably come to rely on.
There is an «almost immediate»
response,
atmospheric with the roughly 90 day lag, then there is a roughly 27 month lagged
response, that would be coupled atmosphere / ocean
response related to the QBO, then there is a roughly 8.5 to 10 year
response, that would be ocean basin circulation related.
In contrast to this, the calculated TOA outgoing radiation fluxes from 11
atmospheric models forced by the observed SST are less than the zero feedback
response, consistent
with the positive feedbacks that characterize these models.
Zhang, J.L., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, «Arctic sea ice
response to
atmospheric forcings
with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability ``, Geophys.
The equilibrium
response of the control run (1950
atmospheric composition, CO2 approx. 310 ppm) and runs
with successive CO2 doublings and halvings reveals that snowball Earth instability occurs just beyond three CO2 halvings.
The correlation tests are only performed
with a zero lag, under the assumption that
atmospheric ionization and cloud cover
responses operate at sub-monthly timescales (Arnold 2006).
Very few experimental approaches have assessed ecosystem
responses to multi-factorial treatments such as listed above (Norby and Luo, 2004), and experiments on warming, rainfall change or
atmospheric CO2 level are virtually absent in savannas,
with many ecosystem studies confined mainly to temperate grasslands (Rustad et al., 2001).
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the
response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the
response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or
atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated
with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
In the idealised situation that the climate
response to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 consisted of a uniform temperature change only,
with no feedbacks operating (but allowing for the enhanced radiative cooling resulting from the temperature increase), the global warming from GCMs would be around 1.2 °C (Hansen et al., 1984; Bony et al., 2006).
In contrast, a coupled atmosphere - ocean experiment
with an
atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm produced warming relative to pre-industrial times of 3 °C to 5 °C in the northern North Atlantic, and 1 °C to 3 °C in the tropics (Haywood et al., 2005), generally similar to the
response to higher CO2 discussed in Chapter 10.
Researchers investigated the
response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the rise of
atmospheric CO2 in the NCAR Climate System Model version 3,
with the focus on the different
responses under modern and glacial periods.
Warming of sea surface temperatures and alteration of ocean chemistry associated
with anthropogenic increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide will have profound consequences for a broad range of species, but the potential for seasonal variation to modify species and ecosystem
responses to these stressors has received little attention.