An article in the Financial Times posts these principles from Taleb that addresses economic issues surrounding dealing
with black swan events (text selected for relevance to the climate issue):
Not exact matches
As they walked, the two of them — Ibex's director and chief data scientist — were on the phone
with a client and in passing mentioned rare, so - called
black -
swan events.
While the
black swan events can temporarily hurt your principle, as we saw even
with things like 9 - 11, and LTCM, stock markets eventually recover their losses.
During a potentially volatile
event (for example, elections and political announcements) and especially during the times of unexpected market volatility (
black swan type of
events), trading
with a broker that has set in place an advanced risk management processes is important for ensuring your funds will be kept secure.
The market has been quite unpredictable recently, so it's hard to make any predictions, however Alexis Roussel, a co-founder of Bity, a cryptocurrency broker in Switzerland, trading
with bitcoins and ethers, and managing a network of Bitcoin ATMs, thinks «BCH could stabilize, and other alts could benefit except if another
black swan event happens.»
But, Anderson notes, «it turns out that there are plenty of
black swan events that are so extreme that we can easily detect them
with available data.»
Tom Friedman in his new book calls climate change a «
black elephant» — a combination of the unforeseen «
black swan»
event with enormous consequences and the «elephant in the room» no one can see.
As SXSW descends upon Austin, Texas, Onnit announces its plans to make a big splash on the scene
with several
events, including a live music
event at
Black Swan Yoga, product launch and podcast at...
Nassim Taleb of «
Black Swan» fame teaches us the very same basic principle
with his «hockey stick»
with intense life changing
events on one extreme and small gentle changes on the other.
The mainstream application to finance came about in 2007 when Naseem Taleb, In his book The
Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, used
Black Swans as a metaphor for the low probability of destructive
events with extreme negative returns occurring in financial markets.
With the near certainty of higher interest rates in the next year, barring any
black swan events, it would be in the best interest of investors to begin looking at hedging options.
But I also forewarned that it may not be a perfect line, and it could be mired
with a couple
Black Swan Events.
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They go over the results,
with topics that include interest rates, the Japanese equity market,
black swan events in Europe, roaring commodities, and the strength of the Dollar.
Black Swan typifies Kenny Hunter's use of anthropomorphic symbolism, the swan evoking human qualities of enduring partnership and love, while also alluding to «Black Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected events rationalised with hindsight, deriving from the fact that black swans were thought to be an impossibi
Black Swan typifies Kenny Hunter's use of anthropomorphic symbolism, the swan evoking human qualities of enduring partnership and love, while also alluding to «Black Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected events rationalised with hindsight, deriving from the fact that black swans were thought to be an impossibil
Swan typifies Kenny Hunter's use of anthropomorphic symbolism, the
swan evoking human qualities of enduring partnership and love, while also alluding to «Black Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected events rationalised with hindsight, deriving from the fact that black swans were thought to be an impossibil
swan evoking human qualities of enduring partnership and love, while also alluding to «
Black Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected events rationalised with hindsight, deriving from the fact that black swans were thought to be an impossibi
Black Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected events rationalised with hindsight, deriving from the fact that black swans were thought to be an impossibil
Swan theory», a term used to describe inexplicable or unexpected
events rationalised
with hindsight, deriving from the fact that
black swans were thought to be an impossibi
black swans were thought to be an impossibility.
With the tightly interconnected world of 7 + billion people, I think we can assume that there will be many
Black Swan events as the systems to maintain those 7 + billion people become ever more complicated and subject to breaking down it a catastrophic way.
My reading of Taleb is he's saying one of the big problems
with black swans is that people assume a normal distribution and thus underestimate the probability of extreme
events.
Now an
event where an ET from a civilisation
with largely superior technology would teleport to the control room and stop the main pump while letting the reactor in full power would be a
black swan because teleportation has never been considered for safety design.
I agree that global warming itself shouldn't be regarded as a
black swan, although if some of the more alarming sensitivity predictions were to be true
with accompanying extreme weather
events, then it might arguably be a
black swan.
I don't know what a
Black Swan event would be, a new ice age, an astroid strike, a shut down of an ocean current...??? None of those has anything to do
with the currant CAGW debate nor ar they anything that we can prepare for.
Taleb uses it
with an additional condition that
black swan events are unpredictable and change society in major ways.
A key element of «
black swans» is that while they are unanticipated, in hindsight they
events are rationalized to seem obvious (it could have been anticipated
with better use of available information).
When there are pitfalls, which for whatever reason have not been foreseen, these usually in my experience arise where there may have been factors which are almost, you could say, «
black swan»
events — for example, when litigating, I've been faced
with errant employees recording meetings
with their colleagues or managers without permission.