One resolves in this manner the short - term components of the climate response, such as hydrological perturbations associated
with changes in lapse rate.
Not exact matches
It has been argued that the land amplification is associated
with lapse rate changes (not represented
in the UVic model), and it is certain that drying of the land can play a role (not reliable
in the UVic model since diffusing water vapor gives you a crummy hydrological cycle, especially over land).
According to thermodynamics and a largely fixed
lapse rate, the average cloud height will simply shift up and down
in altitude
with change in temperature, which you can see
in their Figure 2.
Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case — the increase
in water vapour as surface air temperature rises causes a
change in the moist - adiabatic
lapse rate (the decrease of temperature
with height) such that the surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases
with increasing temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft).
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean
in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (
in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity
in the crust and somewhat
in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers
with superadiabatic
lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core)
in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature
changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
With one band (along with the convective lapse rate below the tropopause) establishing the atmospheric temperature profile, adding some other band of absorption may result in some different pattern of temperature cha
With one band (along
with the convective lapse rate below the tropopause) establishing the atmospheric temperature profile, adding some other band of absorption may result in some different pattern of temperature cha
with the convective
lapse rate below the tropopause) establishing the atmospheric temperature profile, adding some other band of absorption may result
in some different pattern of temperature
change.
The
lapse rate within the troposphere is largely determined by convection, which redistributes any
changes in radiative heating or cooling within the troposphere + surface so that all levels tend to shift temperature similarly (
with some regional / latitudinal, diurnal, and seasonal exceptions, and some exceptions for various transient weather events).
The issue
with the Mauritsen and Stevens piece is that it tries to go well beyond a «what if» modeling experiment, and attempts to make contact
with a lot of other issues related to historical climate
change (the hiatus,
changes in the hydrologic cycle, observed tropical
lapse rate «hotspot» stuff,
changes in the atmsopheric circulation, etc) by means of what the «iris» should look like
in other climate signals.
First, for
changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a
change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though
in the context of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described as having radiative forcings of x W / m2 per
change in surface T), such as water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the
lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric
lapse rate, though
changes in the position of the tropopause and
changes in the stratospheric temperature could also be considered
lapse -
rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause
with stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause
with stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after stratospheric adjustment).
When optical thickness is large, the net flux will tend to be small, but the flux will vary
with lapse rate (according to the corresponding Planck function «
lapse rate») and a sufficiently sharp
change in that
lapse rate could lead to some significant flux convergence or divergence at that level (net radiant heating or cooling).
The saturated
lapse rate will be reduced beneath the clouds and increased above them
with little
change in ocean surface temperature.
And I
change my mind about convection
in this GHG - free case: I have to remember that the adiabatic
lapse rate only sets an upper limit of the temperature decline
with altitude;
in fact conditions of temperature inversion,
in which the temperature is constant or rises
with altitude, are also stable.
As Frank pointed out
in a comment at Science of Doom, the
change in downwelling longwave radiation is only redistributing energy, contributing to some warming at the surface, perhaps
with some effect on ocean overturning, and
changing the
lapse rate.
This suggests that the well - known
changes in temperature
lapse rates associated
with the tropopause / stratosphere regions are related to the phase
change, and not «ozone heating», which had been the previous explanation.
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences
in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and
lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and
lapse rate to interannual or decadal
changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated
with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
This difference reflects the respective
changes in the
rate of temperature decrease
with altitude (or
lapse rate), which is
in turn influenced by the amount of moisture
in the atmosphere.
Dry adiabatic
lapse rate (DALR) means the
change in temperature
with a
change in pressure (altitude) when the contained water vapor is NOT
changing state.
So, if you «try» to
change the temperature structure of the atmosphere by
changing the heat flows between the surface and atmosphere, the atmosphere just responds by altering the convection to cancel out most of this
change and you end up
with basically the same temperature structure you started
with (modulo the issues involving the moist adiabatic
lapse rate... i.e., the fact that the adiabatic
lapse rate changes some
with heating, which genuinely does cause a
change in the temperature structure and leads to the
lapse rate feedback, a negative feedback already included
in all of the climate models).
Satellite data only goes back about 30 years and is
in rough agreement
with the surface analysis and model expectations of
changes in the
lapse rate.
A greenhouse effect governed by scattering of IR light would also not be sensitive to a cloud temperature (or the
lapse rate in general) wheras the temperature
change with altitude is the key behind the existence of the traditional absorption / emission GHG effect on Earth.
(We account for
changes in Cp
with lapse -
rate feedback.)
In spite of the recent increase in no lapse guarantee life insurance premiums, a long overdue adjustment, life insurance rates have gone down steadily for the last 20 years and life insurance underwriting has advanced along with scientific and medical breakthroughs that have changed the mortality picture of most disease
In spite of the recent increase
in no lapse guarantee life insurance premiums, a long overdue adjustment, life insurance rates have gone down steadily for the last 20 years and life insurance underwriting has advanced along with scientific and medical breakthroughs that have changed the mortality picture of most disease
in no
lapse guarantee life insurance premiums, a long overdue adjustment, life insurance
rates have gone down steadily for the last 20 years and life insurance underwriting has advanced along
with scientific and medical breakthroughs that have
changed the mortality picture of most diseases.