«The weakening and strengthening of the stratospheric circulation seems to correspond
with changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic,» Reichler says.
Shall we try to discern the cause of cloud changes associated
with changes in ocean circulation?
That suggests that cooling may start
with changes in the ocean circulation, influencing the northern sea surface and atmosphere, said co-author Jerry McManus, a professor at Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory.
Partly this has to do
with changes in ocean circulation taking warmer water deeper and partly as the result of the southern hemisphere having less land mass and more ocean — where the ocean has a higher thermal inertia, meaning that it takes longer for those waters to warm.
Not exact matches
But within these long periods there have been abrupt climate
changes, sometimes happening
in the space of just a few decades,
with variations of up to 10ºC
in the average temperature
in the polar regions caused by
changes in the Atlantic
ocean circulation.
Climate
changes that began ~ 17,700 years ago included a sudden poleward shift
in westerly winds encircling Antarctica
with corresponding
changes in sea ice extent,
ocean circulation, and ventilation of the deep
ocean.
«These conditions will cause
changes in phytoplankton growth and
ocean circulation around Antarctica,
with the net effect of transferring nutrients from the upper
ocean to the deep
ocean,» said lead author J. Keith Moore, UCI professor of Earth system science.
At that time,
changes in atmospheric - oceanic
circulation led to a stratification
in the
ocean with a cold layer at the surface and a warm layer below.
They were able to show that episodes of extinction coincided
with pulses of
ocean anoxia, driven by
changes in ocean circulation and nutrient levels.
They were Jorge Sarmiento, an oceanographer at Princeton University who constructs
ocean -
circulation models that calculate how much atmospheric carbon dioxide eventually goes into the world's
oceans; Eileen Claussen, executive director of the Pew Center for Global Climate
Change in Washington, D.C.; and David Keith, a physicist
with the University of Calgary
in Alberta who designs technological solutions to the global warming problem.
Quick recovery is consistent
with the Southern
Ocean - centric picture of the global overturning circulation (Fig. 4; Talley, 2013), as the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (SMOC), driven by AABW formation, responds to change in the vertical stability of the ocean column near Antarctica (Sect. 3.7) and the ocean mixed layer and sea ice have limited thermal ine
Ocean - centric picture of the global overturning
circulation (Fig. 4; Talley, 2013), as the Southern
Ocean meridional overturning circulation (SMOC), driven by AABW formation, responds to change in the vertical stability of the ocean column near Antarctica (Sect. 3.7) and the ocean mixed layer and sea ice have limited thermal ine
Ocean meridional overturning
circulation (SMOC), driven by AABW formation, responds to
change in the vertical stability of the
ocean column near Antarctica (Sect. 3.7) and the ocean mixed layer and sea ice have limited thermal ine
ocean column near Antarctica (Sect. 3.7) and the
ocean mixed layer and sea ice have limited thermal ine
ocean mixed layer and sea ice have limited thermal inertia.
For years, perhaps decades, Gray has been ascribing all sorts of climate
changes and hurricane cycles to fluctuations
in the Thermohaline
Circulation (THC), an overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean associated with formation of deep water in the Nort
Circulation (THC), an overturning
circulation in the Atlantic ocean associated with formation of deep water in the Nort
circulation in the Atlantic
ocean associated
with formation of deep water
in the North Atlantic.
James Hansen, PhD, concludes that
with further warming, which experts acknowledge is inevitable,
changes in North Atlantic
Ocean circulation could result
in «superstorms» unlike any
in human history.
Hoerling and Kumar (2003) attributed the drought to
changes in atmospheric
circulation associated
with warming of the western tropical Pacific and Indian
oceans, while McCabe et al. (2004) have produced evidence suggesting that the confluence of both Pacific decadal and Atlantic multi-decadal fluctuations is involved.
A recent paper by Vecchi and Soden (preprint) published
in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has been widely touted
in the news (and some egregiously bad editorials), and the blogosphere as suggesting that increased vertical wind shear associated
with tropical
circulation changes may offset any tendencies for increased hurricane activity
in the tropical Atlantic due to warming
oceans.
It will take some time to integrate the findings of this study
with other evidence of
changes in North Atlantic
ocean circulation, including the
changes seen
in salinity,
changes in the so - called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)(see e.g. Knight et al, 2005 and references therein) and other indicators of Atlantic climate
change (e.g. Dickson et al, 2002).
Some of these
changes have a regularity within broad limits and the planet responds
with a broad regularity
in changes of ice, cloud, Atlantic thermohaline
circulation and
ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
The increased temperatures have been accompanied
with changes in snow, sea - ice, precipitation, permafrost, icebergs, landice, river runoff, polar lows, synoptic storms, cloudiness, avalanches,
ocean circulation, and
ocean acidification.
For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for
ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries,
with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics,
changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.
I'm still inclined to think that subtle
changes in ocean circulation patterns,
with resulting local effects on climate, are more likley to be responsible.
One needs to contrast the long - term weakening of the Walker
circulation (which is robust)
with the
change in the models» El Nià ± o (which is not robust — there's a series of papers describing this for the current IPCC models: e.g. van Oldenborgh et al 2005
Ocean Sci., Merryfield 2005 J. Clim., Capotondi et al 2005 J. Clim., Guilyard 2005 Clim.
Abstract: «The patterns of time / space
changes in near - surface temperature due to the separate forcing components are simulated
with a coupled atmosphere —
ocean general
circulation model»
This thesis presents the results of several general
circulation model simulations aimed at studying the effect of
ocean circulation changes when they occur
in conjunction
with increased atmospheric trace gas concentrations.
Some of these control variables have a regularity within broad limits and the planet responds over decades to millennia
with a broad regularity
in changes of ice, cloud, Atlantic thermohaline
circulation and
ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
The project will also analyze
changes in oceanic
circulation and processes
in an ice - depleted Arctic
Ocean, and
in its interactions
with the sub arctic
oceans.
Francis, who wasn't involved
with either study, is one of the main proponents of an idea that by altering how much heat the
ocean lets out, sea ice melt and Arctic warming can also
change atmospheric
circulation patterns,
in particular by making the jet stream form larger peaks, or highs, and troughs, or lows.
Ocean warming is occurring in concert with the acidification of ocean waters (e.g. Doney et al. 2009), as well as changes in ocean circulation (e.g. Bakun et al. 2
Ocean warming is occurring
in concert
with the acidification of
ocean waters (e.g. Doney et al. 2009), as well as changes in ocean circulation (e.g. Bakun et al. 2
ocean waters (e.g. Doney et al. 2009), as well as
changes in ocean circulation (e.g. Bakun et al. 2
ocean circulation (e.g. Bakun et al. 2009).
With respect to the
ocean, CO2 flows
in and out continuously according to
ocean circulations and the associated temperature
changes.
South America colliding
with Central America was once the cause of vast
changes to
ocean circulation patterns, and a
change in Earth's climate — but that «natural» explanation no longer applies
in the 21st century.
The most interesting feature is the step
change in cloud — associated
with a
change in ocean and atmospheric
circulation —
in the 1998/2001 climate shift.
Two wind patterns
in the Indian
Ocean, known as the Hadley
circulation and the Walker
circulation, interact
with the Indo - Pacific warm pool to drive sea level
changes.
This polar amplification is thought to be due largely to
changes in sea ice,
with some contributions from
changes in snow cover, atmospheric and
ocean circulation, cloud cover and the presence of soot.
«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component
in predictability studies of both regional and global climate
change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO
with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes
in coupled climate models is an important «open question
in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific
Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations
in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate
change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future
changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus
in changes in either mode also affects confidence
in projected
changes in the overlying atmospheric
circulation.»»
Here we use an ensemble of simulations
with a coupled
ocean — atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated
with central Pacific El Niño force
changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric
circulation.
The advantage of recognising a reversed sign for the solar effect high up
in the atmosphere is that it enables a scenario whereby the bottom up effects of
ocean cycles and the top down effects of solar variability can be seen to be engaged
in a complex ever
changing dance
with the primary climate response being
changes in the tropospheric air
circulation systems to give us the observed natural climate variability via cyclical latitudinal shifts
in all the air
circulation systems and notably the jet streams.
This basin - wide
change in the Atlantic climate (both warming and cooling) induces a basin - scale sea surface temperature seesaw
with the Pacific
Ocean, which
in turn modifies the position of the Walker
circulation (the language by which the tropical basins communicate) and the strength of the Pacific trade winds.
Clouds
change — associated
with changes in ocean and atmospheric
circulation —
in the short term and radically
change the energy budget.
This major
change in ocean circulation, along
with a climate that had already been slowly cooling for millions of years, may be what led to ice accumulation most of the time — but also to climatic instability,
with flips every few thousand years or so between warm - and - wet and cool - and - dry.
Cloud is one — https://judithcurry.com/2011/02/09/decadal-variability-of-clouds/ — cloud cover obviously
changes with changes in ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
That is due to
change in the
ocean circulations that increase the rate of heat loss
with increase pole ward flow.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can
change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated
with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration
with these factors which are, land /
ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric
circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along
with Milankovitch Cycles.
Independent evidence from multiple sources suggest — if «real» — that recent warming was all cloud
changes associated
with decadal
changes in ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
A
change in ocean heat content can also alter patterns of
ocean circulation, which can have far - reaching effects on global climate conditions, including
changes to the outcome and pattern of meteorological events such as tropical storms, and also temperatures
in the northern Atlantic region, which are strongly influenced by currents that may be substantially reduced
with CO2 increase
in the atmosphere.
The seasonal climate may relate to
changes in the
ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier condit
ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted
in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic
Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier condit
Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent
with drier conditions.
Regional
circulation patterns have significantly
changed in recent years.2 For example,
changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent
with the expected influence of human - induced climate
change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent
changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability
in sea surface temperatures
in the northern Pacific
Ocean.4
Specifically, the two models were forced
with chlorofluorocarbons (CFC - 11) boundary conditions at the surface of the
ocean with realistic and idealized time evolution
in order to tease apart the effects of the
changing thermohaline
circulation strength to uptake passive tracers and heat.
This
changes in coherent ways
with changing patterns of
ocean / atmosphere
circulation.
Some examples from energy balance model calculations indicate that: (1) solar variability has a near - global response,
with the amplitude of response slightly larger over land; (2) volcanism has a proportionately larger amplitude of response over land than over
ocean; and (3) the most oft - cited mode of internal variability,
changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation, has a hemispheric asymmetry
in response.
By the way, we also did a paper on millennial - scale solar geoengineering (Cao et al, 2016) showing that,
in at least one climate model, solar geoengineering behaves quite well on the 1000 - year time scale
with no substantial long term growth
in climate
change as
ocean circulation and such adjusts to the new conditions.
Interview
with Jack Eddy
Ocean Currents and Climate Theory Simple Models of Climate
Change Chaos
in the Atmosphere Venus & Mars General
Circulation Models of Climate Basic Radiation Calculations Arakawa's Computation Device GCM Family Tree (P. Edwards)