The phases are associated
with changes in sea surface temperatures (SST).
This extended drought is linked
with the changes in the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, according to a study led by University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) professor Glen MacDonald.
Not exact matches
The team analyzed an index of
sea surface temperatures from the Bering Sea and found that in years with higher than average Arctic temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North Ameri
sea surface temperatures from the Bering
Sea and found that in years with higher than average Arctic temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North Ameri
Sea and found that
in years
with higher than average Arctic
temperatures,
changes in atmospheric circulation resulted
in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North America.
There are strong competing effects such as
changes in the large - scale atmospheric circulation,
sea surface temperature changes like El Niño and La Niña and the dynamics of westerly storm tracks that all interact at the mid-latitudes,» said Stanford co-author Matthew Winnick who contributed to the study
with fellow doctoral student Daniel Ibarra.
The first image, based on data from January 1997 when El Nio was still strengthening shows a
sea level rise along the Equator
in the eastern Pacific Ocean of up to 34 centimeters
with the red colors indicating an associated
change in sea surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured
sea surface temperatures associated
with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some ocean water on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
Consistent
with observed
changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction
in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent
in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased
in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased
in the Arctic, particularly
in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale
changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline
in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent
with long - term
changes in tropical Pacific
sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented
in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
This seems to be associated
with particular patterns of
change in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured
in climate models on seasonal timescales.
«Climate
Change,
Sea Level, and Western Drought: Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference Learn why the American West could be
in trouble
with surface air
temperatures rising faster than elsewhere
in the coterminous United States.
Past summer, extratropical
temperature changes appear, for example, to have have differed significantly from annual
temperature changes over the entire (tropical and extratropical) Northern Hemisphere, and tropical Pacific
Sea Surface Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely with temperatures in the extratropical regions o
Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely
with temperatures in the extratropical regions o
temperatures in the extratropical regions of the globe.
«Climate
Change,
Sea Level, and Western Drought: Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference Learn why the American West could be
in trouble
with surface air
temperatures rising faster than elsewhere
in the coterminous United States.
On Wednesday an interesting paper (Thompson et al) was published
in Nature, pointing to a clear artifact
in the
sea surface temperatures in 1945 and associating it
with the
changing mix of fleets and measurement techniques at the end of World War II.
«West Coast
sea surface and coastal air
temperatures evolved
in lockstep
with changing patterns of atmospheric pressure and winds.»
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically
in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase
with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so
with a warming due to an increase
in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin
with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released
in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight
in the winter would not be so delayed).
In a study published in the journal Nature the researchers say analysis of sea surface temperature data shows that the AMOC has slowed down by roughly 15 % since the middle of the 20th century, with human - made climate change a prime suspec
In a study published
in the journal Nature the researchers say analysis of sea surface temperature data shows that the AMOC has slowed down by roughly 15 % since the middle of the 20th century, with human - made climate change a prime suspec
in the journal Nature the researchers say analysis of
sea surface temperature data shows that the AMOC has slowed down by roughly 15 % since the middle of the 20th century,
with human - made climate
change a prime suspect.
The evidence is «equivocal» because it does not agree
with limited land based observation of cloud — something that may be a little shortsighted as these
changes seem significantly to be associated
with sea surface temperature in the tropics and the influences of the northern and southern annular modes.
But it wouldn't be an El Nino
in the complete sense (the
sea surface temperature anomalies along
with the associated
changes to the dominant weather patterns).
Investigators outside NOAA are finding interesting trends and showing that they seem to be correlated
with trends
in such variables as SST [
Sea Surface Temperature]
in key regions, the
changes of which almost certainly are due to human - induced
changes in the climate, though having enough data to get all the statistics right is often problematic.
Give the students the graph below from Johnstone 2014 and ask them to compare
changes in sea surface temperatures (SST
in red)
with the raw and recently homogenized
temperature data from southern California.
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (
in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent
changes in land
surface temperatures and
sea surface temperatures and atmospheric
temperatures and deep
sea temperatures and
sea ice extent and
sea ice volume and
sea ice density and moisture content
in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated
with natural phenomena.
What we know
with some certainty about oceans (if data is to be believed) is that the intra-annual
change in the insolation effects (suspiciously) high symmetricity
in the N. Atlantic's
sea surface temperature, cantered on 1st of March and 31st of August.
A new methodology (combined Pacific variability mode) is developed to objectively analyze how climate
change may be synergistically interacting
with Pacific
sea surface temperature associated warm season teleconnections
in North America.
Combine the satellite trend
with the
surface observations and the umpteen non-
temperature based records that reflect
temperature change (from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent
in spring & fall to
sea level rise to stratospheric temps) and the evidence for recent gradual warming is, well, unequivocal.
The
changes in sea -
surface temperatures are consistent
with the impact of the annular modes on the
surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat, and also on the flux of heat by the anomalous Ekman flow.
Publishing
in the journal Nature he argued, «The
changes are all associated
with patterns of dry - season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated
with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.»
This
change in sea level occurred
in the context of different orbital forcing and
with high latitude
surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2 °C warmer than present.
Sea level pressure changes in the two solstice seasons from a GCM simulation with increased sea surface temperature gradient minus a simulation with a decreased gradient in the Atlantic (top row), in the Pacific (middle row), and increased gradient in the Atlantic along with a decreased gradient in the Pacific minus the reverse (bottom ro
Sea level pressure
changes in the two solstice seasons from a GCM simulation
with increased
sea surface temperature gradient minus a simulation with a decreased gradient in the Atlantic (top row), in the Pacific (middle row), and increased gradient in the Atlantic along with a decreased gradient in the Pacific minus the reverse (bottom ro
sea surface temperature gradient minus a simulation
with a decreased gradient
in the Atlantic (top row),
in the Pacific (middle row), and increased gradient
in the Atlantic along
with a decreased gradient
in the Pacific minus the reverse (bottom row).
The broadening of the season correlates
with rising
sea surface temperatures; each degree Celsius
temperature change corresponds to a 20 - day shift
in both the beginning and end of hurricane season.
The slab ocean model is a computationally efficient scheme that allows
sea surface temperatures to interact
with the atmosphere; and is necessary for propagating energy imbalances due to land cover
change that lead to shifts
in precipitation.
Because the GISS analysis combines available
sea surface temperature records
with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global
temperature change is sensitive to estimated
temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited.
We already know that the
sea surface temperatures associated
with mass bleaching of much of the Great Barrier Reef
in early 2016 would have been virtually impossible without climate
change.
That suggests that the 1940s tropical warming could have started the
changes in the Amundsen
Sea ice shelves that are being observed now... He emphasized that natural variations in tropical sea - surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.&raq
Sea ice shelves that are being observed now... He emphasized that natural variations
in tropical
sea - surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.&raq
sea -
surface temperatures associated
with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.»
The climate shift of 1978 manifests as a strong lift
in 200hPa
temperature globally
with the most extreme
change at about 30 ° of latitude
in both hemispheres, a pronounced fall
in sea level pressure
in the south East Pacific, a jump
in sea surface temperature in the tropics, the transition between solar cycle 20 and 21 and a hike
in the aa index of geomagnetic activity that has slowly sunk along
with 200hpa
temperature from that time forward.
Here we use an ensemble of simulations
with a coupled ocean — atmosphere model to show that the
sea surface temperature anomalies associated
with central Pacific El Niño force
changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation.
The increase
in the global average
temperature anomaly and the divergence of land and
sea surface temperatures also coincided
with two significant
changes in global average cloud cover.
This basin - wide
change in the Atlantic climate (both warming and cooling) induces a basin - scale
sea surface temperature seesaw
with the Pacific Ocean, which
in turn modifies the position of the Walker circulation (the language by which the tropical basins communicate) and the strength of the Pacific trade winds.
Normally you can run GCM for centuries
with a stable realistic
surface temperature, but take the CO2 out, and
in 5 - 10 years it has dropped 30 C
in global average
temperature and is half - covered
in sea ice due to a powerful water vapor feedback
in response to any global
temperature change.
Elsewhere on this site there is a graph of overall ocean heat content which is building indicating that while the sst is decreasing slightly the overall ocean is warming, It is likely that this overall ocean warming which has nothing to do
with changes to the atmospheric
temperature because it is the
sea surface and not the deep ocean that is
in contact
with the atmosphere is what is resulting
in the overall rise
in atmospheric CO2 concentration which is currenly increasing at 2ppmv / year.
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured
sea surface temperatures associated
with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some ocean water on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
There are secular
changes in cloud associated
with variable
sea surface temperature — that vary from weeks to millennia creating warmer or cooler
surface conditions.
In both GOGA and TOGA simulations, the
surface temperature over
sea ice can respond to both prescribed
sea ice and simulated atmospheric circulation
changes, which explains differences
with observations
Regional circulation patterns have significantly
changed in recent years.2 For example,
changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent
with the expected influence of human - induced climate
change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent
changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability
in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations,
with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human - induced
changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical
sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability.
Monaghan et al. further note «recent literature suggests there has been little overall
change in Antarctic near -
surface temperature during the past 5 decades» and «the absence of widespread Antarctic
temperature increases is consistent
with studies showing little overall
change in other Antarctic climate indicators during the past 50 years such as
sea ice area and snowfall.»
One of the most striking
changes is the decline of
sea ice concurrent
with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased
surface air
temperature.
Doing this on a year - to - year basis shows NO apparent correlation
with the absolute «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature anomaly» (i.e. HadCRUT3), but does show a weak correlation
with the
CHANGE in temperature from the previous year, for example:
There is a recognised bias
in the dataset from the period around WWII associated
with changes in the nationality of the shipping fleets taking
sea surface temperature measurements - the main contributor to the
temperature record - due to the war.
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences
in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal
changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated
with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between
surface air
temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for
sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of
sea ice thickness.
These frequency
changes are consistent
with other paleoclimate indicators from the tropical North Atlantic,
in particular,
sea surface temperature variations.