> Some of the «wiggles» in temperature (such as the Little Ice Age signal) correlate
with changes in solar output.
However, there is significant debate as to the cause of these D - O events,
with changes in solar output being just one possibility (NOAA Paleoclimatology).
Not exact matches
When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations
with estimates of only «natural» climate influences over the past 100 years, such as
changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.
The
change is small — about 0.1 percent — but other, longer - term shifts
in solar output seem to correlate
with noticeable shifts
in earthly climate.
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as
with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can warm the climate, and slight
changes in solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter
in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years
in duration (the Younger Dryas).
If you could have the earth do its own thing for 1000 years,
with not no
changes in forcing (i.e.
solar output constant, have no human - caused CO2
changes, etc.), you will still get variabilitiy.
However, nobody could come up
with a good explanation for how the slight
changes in solar energy
output could
change climate so much.
The RealClimate post on Polar Amplification... http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/polar-amplification/... begins
with the statement, «' Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate
change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe
in response to a
change in global climate forcing, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or
solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).»
The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget
with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable
changes in the various input and
output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as
changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant
changes in solar power
output.
More often, models have been tested by hindcasting — they are forced
with a known
change starting at a past known climate state, and asked whether they can accurately project the
output (e.g., a temperature
change resulting from a
change in CO2,
solar forcing, etc.)?
«Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal,
changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated
with changes in the level of
solar activity — the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example — would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle
changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative
output.
Time - of - use (TOU) rates, even without net energy metering, could
change the value proposition
in places like California and Texas because
solar output is «so
in line
with peak pricing, especially during those late afternoon summer hours,» he said.
It's also
changes in the
solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, which cycles along
with energy
output and shields the earth from galactic cosmic rays.
They concluded that
with a bit of help from
changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth
in the volume of aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1998 - 2008.
They concluded that
with a bit of help from
changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),..
As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget
with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable
changes in the various input and
output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as
changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant
changes in solar power
output.
Could it be that the rise and fall
in our CFC
output was just coincidental
with natural
changes from
solar variability?
Certainly,
with no convincing explanation for the major climate variations we know have occurred over 10K to multi-M year periods, I would be very hesitant to assume that
changes in solar output could not be a contributor.