Four multi-decadal climate shifts were identified in the last century coinciding
with changes in the surface temperature trajectory.
There is virtually no measured data whatsoever that connects a change in CO2 concentration
with a change in surface temperature.
Four multi-decadal climate shifts have been identified in the last century coinciding
with changes in the surface temperature trajectory.
This change is inconsistent
with the change in surface temperature: 15 coastal stations around Antarctica recorded an average warming of 0.028 degrees annually during 1959 - 88, i.e. three times the global average.
Not exact matches
The satellite - based record of land
surface maximum
temperatures, scientists have found, provides a sensitive global thermometer that links bulk shifts
in maximum
temperatures with ecosystem
change and human well - being.
OU Professors Jeffrey F. Kelly, Todd Fagin and Eli S. Bridge, Oklahoma Biological Survey, and graduate student Kyle G. Horton, Department of Biology, OU College of Arts and Sciences;
in collaboration
with OU Professors Phillip B. Chilson, School of Meteorology, and Kirsten de Beurs, Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, OU College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences; and Phillip M. Stepanian, formerly
with the Advanced Radar Research Center, worked together to demonstrate how migration timing relates to land
surface phenology and
temperature changes.
The team analyzed an index of sea
surface temperatures from the Bering Sea and found that
in years
with higher than average Arctic
temperatures,
changes in atmospheric circulation resulted
in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North America.
There are strong competing effects such as
changes in the large - scale atmospheric circulation, sea
surface temperature changes like El Niño and La Niña and the dynamics of westerly storm tracks that all interact at the mid-latitudes,» said Stanford co-author Matthew Winnick who contributed to the study
with fellow doctoral student Daniel Ibarra.
The first image, based on data from January 1997 when El Nio was still strengthening shows a sea level rise along the Equator
in the eastern Pacific Ocean of up to 34 centimeters
with the red colors indicating an associated
change in sea
surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
The committee has prepared a report that,
in my view, provides policy makers and the scientific community
with a critical view of
surface temperature reconstructions and how they are evolving over time, as well as a good sense of how important our understanding of the paleoclimate
temperature record is within the overall state of scientific knowledge on global climate
change.
Finally, none of the teams experienced a shift
in Shannon - Wiener diversity or evenness, which would be expected
in an exercise - driven community shift, since metabolically active bacteria might come to dominate the community
with a
change in pH,
temperature and moisture at the skin
surface.
One could assume that there was minimal global mean
surface temperature change between 1750 and 1850, as some datasets suggest, and compare the 1850 - 2000
temperature change with the full 1750 - 2000 forcing estimate, as
in my paper and Otto et al..
The most important bias globally was the modification
in measured sea
surface temperatures associated
with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some ocean water on deck, and putting a thermometer
in it, to reading the thermometer
in the engine coolant water intake.
For the
change in annual mean
surface air
temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented
in the SAR
with a maximum warming
in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum
in the Southern Ocean (due to ocean heat uptake)(2)
Consistent
with observed
changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction
in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent
in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased
in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere; sea ice extents have decreased
in the Arctic, particularly
in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
This is not only
in excellent agreement
with the observed
temperature changes at the
surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage
in the oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.
To remove this difference
in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of
change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of ocean
temperature (area - weighted
with respect to each vertical ocean layer)
with the global
surface air
temperature trend of each period.
We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced
changes and hence forecasts
surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and
in many regions.
After participation
in a ship expedition
with RV SONNE to the North Pacific
in summer 2018, the tasks include to reconstruct the spatial and temporal
changes in near -
surface and subsurface water
temperatures in the North Pacific, salinity, thermocline depth, and water mass stratification of the upper oceanic
surface using geochemical proxy parameters, e.g.
in planktic microfossils.
Jerry Nelson, Ray Wilson, and Roger Angel were all grappling
with the same problem: how do you ensure that a mirror keeps a perfect reflecting
surface while it is assaulted by gravity, wind, and
changes in temperature?
For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale
changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline
in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent
with long - term
changes in tropical Pacific sea
surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented
in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.
Where «dT» is the
change in the Earth's average
surface temperature, «λ» is the climate sensitivity, usually
with units
in Kelvin or degrees Celsius per Watts per square meter (°C / [W - m - 2]-RRB-, and «dF» is the radiative forcing.
And then, if the ocean
surface water was «diluted»
with isotopic light melt water, would this not be reflected
with a similar drop
in the Greenland ice cores, just by a
changing isotope signature of the source, instead of a
temperature drop?
Where «dT» is the
change in the Earth's average
surface temperature, «λ» is the climate sensitivity, usually
with units
in Kelvin or degrees Celsius per Watts per square meter (°C / [W m - 2]-RRB-, and «dF» is the radiative forcing, which is discussed
in further detail
in the Advanced rebuttal to the «CO2 effect is weak» argument.
This seems to be associated
with particular patterns of
change in sea
surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured
in climate models on seasonal timescales.
The
changes in SH, LH, and UWLWIR sum to approximately 6 W / m ^ 2 (
with considerable uncertainty), so the sensitivity of the Earth
surface temperature is approximately (4/6) x0.5 C = 0.33 C (again
with considerable uncertainty).
Forster and Gregory (2006) estimate ECS based on radiation budget data from the ERBE combined
with surface temperature observations based on a regression approach, using the observation that there was little
change in aerosol forcing over that time.
Abstract:» The sensitivity of global climate
with respect to forcing is generally described
in terms of the global climate feedback — the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean
surface temperature change.
Lindzen and Giannitsis (2002) pose the hypothesis that the rapid
change in tropospheric (850 — 300 hPa)
temperatures around 1976 triggered a delayed response
in surface temperature that is best modelled
with a climate sensitivity of less than 1 °C.
«Climate
Change, Sea Level, and Western Drought: Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference Learn why the American West could be
in trouble
with surface air
temperatures rising faster than elsewhere
in the coterminous United States.
Along
with the plethora of exterior
changes, the interior of the Jeep Patriot will also be getting some attention
with new soft touch front - door trim panels
with a padded upper
surface, a new center armrest, new cloth interior
with premium cloth bucket seats
in the front, standard speed control on all models, new backlighting of door switches, door locks, windows and power mirror controls, and standard automatic
temperature control on the Latitude X model.
Penetrating into the sebaceous glands, the active compound is distributed evenly over the entire
surface of the skin, and now the poison is not going to be washed off
with water, not afraid of
changes in temperature and is maintained at the desired concentration at all times until the dog wears a collar against fleas.
Back
in 2008, a cottage industry sprang up to assess what impact the Thompson et al related
changes would make on the
surface air
temperature anomalies and trends —
with estimates ranging from complete abandonment of the main IPCC finding on attribution to, well, not very much.
Past summer, extratropical
temperature changes appear, for example, to have have differed significantly from annual
temperature changes over the entire (tropical and extratropical) Northern Hemisphere, and tropical Pacific Sea
Surface Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely with temperatures in the extratropical regions o
Temperatures appear to have varied oppositely
with temperatures in the extratropical regions o
temperatures in the extratropical regions of the globe.
«Climate
Change, Sea Level, and Western Drought: Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference Learn why the American West could be
in trouble
with surface air
temperatures rising faster than elsewhere
in the coterminous United States.
This was one of the motivations for our study out this week
in Nature Climate
Change (England et al., 2014)
With the global - average
surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown
in warming seen
in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
On Wednesday an interesting paper (Thompson et al) was published
in Nature, pointing to a clear artifact
in the sea
surface temperatures in 1945 and associating it
with the
changing mix of fleets and measurement techniques at the end of World War II.
The higher
temperatures associated
with climate
change near the
surface are resulting
in increased evaporation, leading to more water vapor
in the stratosphere which chemically reacting
with the ozone — resulting
in ozone depletion.
Abstract:» The sensitivity of global climate
with respect to forcing is generally described
in terms of the global climate feedback — the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean
surface temperature change.
The atmosphere's
temperature can and will respond much faster to
changes in the
temperature differential
with the ocean
surface.
The paper he wrote together
with Friis - Christensen
in which he found a correlation between solar activity and clouds had a «slight» flaw: it ignored that the period of the study coincided
with a big El Nino, and that large scale
changes in ocean
surface temperature are going to have an effect on cloud formation.
If one postulates that the global average
surface temperature tracks the CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere, possibly
with some delay, then when the CO2 concentration continues to rise monotonically but the global average
surface temperature shows fluctuations as a function of time
with changes in slope (periods wherein it decreases), then you must throw the postulate away.
Climate sensitivity
with surface properties free to
change (but
with GHG specified as a forcing, a choice relevant to the twenty - first century) is defined
in figure 1, which reveals Antarctic
temperature increase of 3 C (Wm ^ -2) ^ -1.
Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case — the increase
in water vapour as
surface air
temperature rises causes a
change in the moist - adiabatic lapse rate (the decrease of
temperature with height) such that the
surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases
with increasing
temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft).
«West Coast sea
surface and coastal air
temperatures evolved
in lockstep
with changing patterns of atmospheric pressure and winds.»
This is not only
in excellent agreement
with the observed
temperature changes at the
surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage
in the oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the
surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean
in general, but significant at the interface betwen the
surface and the air, and also significant (
in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity
in the crust and somewhat
in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers
with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core)
in parts of the Earth's interior)
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
Climate models may therefore lack — or incorrectly parameterize — fundamental processes by which
surface temperatures respond to radiative forcings...
In contrast
with climate model simulations, the zonal
surface temperature changes... do not increase rapidly from mid to high latitudes.»
The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations
with 20th century forcings are able to match the
surface air
temperature record, ii) they also match the measured
changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «
in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag
in the climate's full response to
changes in the forcing.
With a GHG increase, say doubling of CO2, upon reaching equilibrium there will be a
surface temperature increase by dTs, and a
change in the stratospheric
temperature by an amount dTt.