New data have more accurately quantifi ed changes in solar spectral fl uxes over a broad range of wavelengths in association
with changing solar activity.
New data have more accurately quantifi ed changes in solar spectral fl uxes over a broad range of wavelengths in association
with changing solar activity.
Not exact matches
The team attempted to develop an explanation for the anomalous
solar activity data by comparing the features of the 14C
change with those of other
solar events known to have occurred over the last couple of millennia.
The consortium instruments are designed to study a number of phenomena, including the interaction of 67P / C - G
with the
solar wind, a continuous stream of plasma emitted by the sun;
changes of
activity on the comet; the structure and dynamics of the comet's tenuous plasma atmosphere, known as the coma; and the physical properties of the comet's nucleus and surface.
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as
with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological
activity can warm the climate, and slight
changes in
solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years in duration (the Younger Dryas).
... The [NAO proxy record] shows distinct co-variability
with climate
changes over Greenland,
solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo - demographic trends.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the past 150 years (e.g., variability of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for
solar activity induced
changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the global warming experienced during the 20th century,
with the possible exception of the last two decades.
Heliophysics encompasses cosmic rays and particle acceleration, space weather and radiation, dust and magnetic reconnection,
solar activity and stellar cycles, aeronomy and space plasmas, magnetic fields and global
change, and the interactions of the
solar system
with our galaxy.»
The paper he wrote together
with Friis - Christensen in which he found a correlation between
solar activity and clouds had a «slight» flaw: it ignored that the period of the study coincided
with a big El Nino, and that large scale
changes in ocean surface temperature are going to have an effect on cloud formation.
Solar cycle length Veizer suggests the recent global warming might be driven by changes in solar activity (his Fig. 14a — dashed line is temperature, solid line with diamonds is solar cycle len
Solar cycle length Veizer suggests the recent global warming might be driven by
changes in
solar activity (his Fig. 14a — dashed line is temperature, solid line with diamonds is solar cycle len
solar activity (his Fig. 14a — dashed line is temperature, solid line
with diamonds is
solar cycle len
solar cycle length).
In particular, the authors find fault
with IPCC's conclusions relating to human
activities being the primary cause of recent global warming, claiming, contrary to significant evidence that they tend to ignore, that the comparatively small influences of natural
changes in
solar radiation are dominating the influences of the much larger effects of
changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the global energy balance.
Yet while the dips in
solar activity correlate well
with the LIA, there are other factors that, in combination, may have contributed to the climate
change:
Past climate swings (some much larger than the current warming) correlate well
with changes in
solar activity, but these can not be accounted for just
with TSI.
It is not the
change in
solar activity that counts, Vaughan (as it is
with CO2); it is the absolute level.
Another new study finds that
solar activity correlates
with temp and climate
change.
The coldest periods of the LIA (about 1 degC of cooling) appear to associated
with reduced
solar activity, but published estimates of the
change in TSI (1 W / m2) appear to be far too small to have produced the observed cooling.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm Re UV: This is a copy of a note I wrote some 5 - 6 years ago
with minor
changes (I occasionally quote it here and there since I think it still has some merit) Both UV and the particle radiation (particle radiation is a function of
solar activity and the strength of Van Allen belt, via the Earth's field strength) could have far larger indirect contribution by controlling plankton volumes, and in turn
changing the oceans» clarity and CO2 absorption.
The second would lead us to believe that
solar activity and cyclical
changes in ocean current systems are the primary drivers
with CO2 at best a bit player.
It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global
change in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time
with the discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a
solar activity minimum.
If I can prove that
solar activity is modulated by the motion of the
solar system masses and their associated fields, we will be able to accurately hindcast
solar activity and get a better idea of its correlation
with climate
changes.
In fact, climate
change cycles correlate
with solar activity, the expert continued.
One of the first «out» climate skeptics was an Australian named John Daly — who believed, probably correctly, that climate
change has a lot more to do
with solar activity and multi-decadal cycles than
with CO2 — and maintained a blog which became a magnet for the climate resistance.
Earth's geological
changes correlates
with solar activity http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-NAP.htm 3.
You have not cited a third possibility (out of the infinite range of possibilities), no climate
change associated
with CO2 (due to, for example, cloud cover providing negative feedback),
with current increase due to natural variability; or how about possibility four, that increase in CO2 concentrations are caused by the temperature rise, which is in turn caused by (for example) increased
solar activity resulting in increased biomass
activity etc. etc..
Leif Svalgaard's argument, as I understand it, is that
with the most recent and reliable reconstructions of the history of
solar activity, temperature
change and
solar activity are almost perfectly uncorrelated over a time span of 300 years, and the association apparent in Alec Rawls» graph only appears in the 20th century.
«Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal,
changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated
with changes in the level of
solar activity — the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example — would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle
changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output.
A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to
changes in
solar activity is broadly consistent
with atmospheric circulation patterns in long - term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent
solar minima into a climate model.
The authors found that consistent
with previous research,
changes in
solar and volcanic
activity, land cover, and incoming
solar radiation due to the Earth's orbital cycles were the main contributors to the cooling between the MWP and LIA (the years 900 — 1600), and probably also caused the cooling over the full 2,000 - year period.
The climate shift of 1978 manifests as a strong lift in 200hPa temperature globally
with the most extreme
change at about 30 ° of latitude in both hemispheres, a pronounced fall in sea level pressure in the south East Pacific, a jump in sea surface temperature in the tropics, the transition between
solar cycle 20 and 21 and a hike in the aa index of geomagnetic
activity that has slowly sunk along
with 200hpa temperature from that time forward.
Compared
with natural factors that influence climate (including
solar variation and volcanic eruptions), human
activities — primarily burning fossil fuels and deforestation — have been a major contributor to climate
change over the last 50 years.
«There's that odd cyclical behavior in Holgate's sea level
change rate plots, which looks remarkably like it's in phase
with solar activity.»
The
change in trend coincided
with the declining levels of
solar activity after the peak of
solar cycle 23.
The Lunar tidal effects act in concert
with the
changes in the overall level of
solar activity and so appear to «amplify» the
changes caused by the Sun.
We checked this assumption by comparing TEC obtained at three selected sites in Europe (cf. http://swaciweb.dlr.de)
with the
solar activity dynamics represented by the radio flux index F10.7 which is also a proxy for EUV radiation
changes (see Fig. 6).
Whereas CO2 concentration is quasi-steadily increasing, other drivers
change their trends
with time even to opposite (
solar and geomagnetic
activity, stratospheric ozone), or
change trends
with location (Earth's main magnetic field), or
with latitude (geomagnetic
activity), or are largely unknown but probably unstable in space and time (atmospheric winds and waves).
The BEST team found that greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions could account for most of the observed temperature
change, and suggest that the remainder of the variability is fairly consistent
with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), an ocean cycle, and very little contribution from
changes in
solar activity (Figure 2).
Since the
solar EUV radiation varies by a factor of about 2 within a
solar cycle (Lean et al. 2003), it is expected that the ionospheric TEC is highly correlated
with solar activity changes.
Section 1 contains five subsections
with results on 27 - day response of low - latitude ionosphere to
solar extreme - ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, response to the recurrent geomagnetic storms, long - term trends in the upper atmosphere, latitudinal dependence of total electron content on EUV
changes, and statistical analysis of ionospheric behavior during prolonged period of
solar activity.
Jakowski et al. (2011) reveal in Section 2.4 the coherent variations of TEC
with F10.7 at three selected latitudes during the last
solar cycle and assess the
changes of the large - scale horizontal gradients
with solar activity.
This section includes results of the studies on ionospheric response to periodic
changes of
solar activity connected
with solar rotation and also on long - term trends, connected
with changes during
solar cycle.
The methods of Black Box Model Identification applied to an energy balance model provide directly the so called «equilibrium sensitivities»
with respect to three inputs: CO2;
solar and volcanic
activities; this is shown by Prof. de Larminat in his book «Climate
Change: Identifications and projections «[77] where Identification techniques well known in industrial processes, are applied to 16 combinations of historical reconstructions of temperatures (Moberg, Loehle, Ljungqvist, Jones & Mann) and of
solar activity proxies (Usoskin - Lean, Usoskin - timv, Be10 - Lean, Be10 - timv) for the last millennium,
with some series going back to year 843.
My argument was not that the barycentric speed of the sun was «directly» responsible of the climate oscillations As I read your paper [and other papers of yours] you say that
solar activity is directly responsible for climate
changes [
with the exception of the most recent
changes that you now say mostly is AGW.
The catch is the degree of magnitude
change and duration of time of the
solar variations must reach certain LEVELS in order to overcome the inherent negative feedbacks in earth's climatic system, along
with natural earth bound random climate events (examples enso, volcanic
activity).
5) In all cases a decadal or longer decrease in
solar activity is associated
with a decrease in temperatures and a
change in precipitation patterns.
Precession / obliquity — Precession very favorable while obliquity is lessening and becoming more favorable as compared to the Holocene Optimum period of time and this is why I think the global temperatures in general have been on a decline overall since the Holocene optimum however
with fits and starts due to
solar activity changes / volcanic
activity and enso superimposed upon this general trend.
http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «Global (and regional) surface temperature fluctuations in the past 120 years reflect, as in the space era, a combination of
solar, volcanic, ENSO, and anthropogenic influences,
with relative contributions shown in Figure 6.22 The adopted
solar brightness
changes in this scenario are based on a
solar surface flux transport model; although long - term
changes are «50 % larger than the 11 - year irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller than the original estimates based on variations in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic
activity.
As a consequence of the ozone
changes, radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase
with solar activity.
If so, how does the current statement of «
solar activity leading to cooling» reconcile
with the previous description of the last century's temperature
changes as described in the original, 2008 article?
During the late 20th Century the El Ninos has a greater effect on the jet positioning than they do now and the only variable to have
changed is the level of
solar activity which appears to have coincided
with a slight warming of the stratosphere (previously cooling) and an intensification of the inversion at the tropopause which then redirects more energy back downward in the polar high pressure cells.
«Comparing the
changes in English temperatures (which the researchers say are representative of European temperatures as a whole)
with fluctuations in
solar activity, the researchers found a strong correlation.»