Lahsen's abstract says «Drawing on participant observation and interviews
with climate modelers and the atmospheric scientists with whom they interact, the study discusses how modelers, and to some extent knowledge producers in general, are sometimes less able than some users to identify shortcomings of their models.»
Interactions
with climate modelers of the Met Office (potential users of the land cover product) will also take place.
The encounter
with climate modelers has been unique in my experience publishing scientific manuscripts.
The disagreement
with climate modelers arises because, first they do not understand error propagation and so reject its diagnosis, and second they don't understand the difference between a physical error statistic and an energetic perturbation, and so treat the statistic as though it impacts the model expectation values — in this case air temperature.
Having dealt extensively with the physicists, chemists, and engineers that Dr. Frank contrasts
with climate modelers, I can assure you that they are more than capable of similarly flubbing basic distinctions.
Incompetence is the rule
with climate modelers, this judgement based on results.
I have extensive, first - hand experience with climate models, and
with climate modelers.
Having better economic models should increase confidence in projections of the effects of various policies, and greatly improve communication
with climate modelers.
The idea is the brainchild of Leonard Ornstein, a cell biologist at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, who partnered
with climate modelers David Rind and Igor Aleinov of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, all in New York City.
Not exact matches
They note past ages that have been equally warm or warmer without human influence, to say nothing of repeating patterns of
climate change like ice ages (though I've met one of James Hansen's computer
modelers who told me
with sincere conviction that there would not be another ice age).
«But in this case, says Stephen Vavrus, a
climate modeler at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who collaborates
with Francis, «Jennifer and I have been forced into the uncomfortable position of defending — or at least explaining — our position before the scientific process has run its course.»»
Cobb's finding is consistent
with a 2013 study of tree rings suggesting that El Niño — related weather havoc has intensified across much of the globe in recent decades, notes Wenju Cai, a
climate modeler at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Melbourne, Australia.
«Today collaborating
with scientists outside of your discipline is almost a requirement to solve the tough questions,» said
climate modeler and co-author, Dr. Owen Doherty.
Beckwith replies it's almost a battle between
climate modelers, like David Archer, and researchers
with observations on the ground, like Shakhova and here Russian counterparts.
«By the end of this century, as the
climate warms, the rising demand for irrigation water and increased variability of the water supply may lead to regions
with a severe shortage of water for irrigation,» said corresponding author Dr. Maoyi Huang, a
climate modeler at PNNL.
The volcanic events associated
with these intervals caused global weather and
climate phenomena and are often used by
climate modelers as well to understand volcanic sulfate loading on the
climate.
So GISS
climate modeler Michael Way took a topographic map of Venus based on findings from another mission, filled in the lowlands
with an ocean of water, and ran the global
climate model to simulate the
climate of ancient days on Venus.
We welcome applications from potential graduate students and postdocs
with strong computational skills who want to join our group's eclectic mix of statisticians, geophysicists,
climate modelers, and policy scholars.
To research his latest book, How to Cool the Planet: Geoengineering and the Audacious Quest to Fix Earth's
Climate, he spent several years with some of the world's top climate modelers, as well as Cold War physicists, philosophers, politicians, and crackpot entrepreneurs, all of whom are involved with the development of new technologies that might someday be used to manipulate the earth's climate to reduce the risks associated with global w
Climate, he spent several years
with some of the world's top
climate modelers, as well as Cold War physicists, philosophers, politicians, and crackpot entrepreneurs, all of whom are involved with the development of new technologies that might someday be used to manipulate the earth's climate to reduce the risks associated with global w
climate modelers, as well as Cold War physicists, philosophers, politicians, and crackpot entrepreneurs, all of whom are involved
with the development of new technologies that might someday be used to manipulate the earth's
climate to reduce the risks associated with global w
climate to reduce the risks associated
with global warming.
It's an investigative piece I wrote about a Soviet
climate modeler who worked on global warming and nuclear winter, almost undoubtedly was a spy, traveled the world
with Carl Sagan pressing the nuclear - winter case for disarmament and then vanished mysteriously in Spain.
I understand perfectly well that
climate modelers want to own the expertise about
climate — it's only human — but surely contributions from outside that narrow field should be welcomed, if disagreed
with, rather than being dismissed out of hand.
He is a
climate policy analyst and
modeler in the IMAGE - project at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and has been involved in the discussion
with climate skeptics for many years.
Climate modelers are very thankful for the existence of the seasonal cycle, for providing such a beautiful data set
with which we can test a models quantitative response to a well - defined change in external forcing.
In short the past decade presents
climate scientists both observational and
modeler with more challenges that we thought we'd have in the year 2,000.
5:23 p.m. Updated Gavin Schmidt, the
climate modeler at NASA and Columbia University who has long endured the slings and arrows that come with blogging on climate, has now gained a laurel for his efforts — the inaugural $ 25,000 Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical
climate modeler at NASA and Columbia University who has long endured the slings and arrows that come
with blogging on
climate, has now gained a laurel for his efforts — the inaugural $ 25,000 Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical
climate, has now gained a laurel for his efforts — the inaugural $ 25,000
Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical
Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical Union.
IMHO it is of no value for a
climate modeler to interact
with him.
Realclimate will emphasize the very tentative nature of this forecast, and caution that there is a danger that if one doesn't fully realize how doubtful some of the assumptions are,
climate modelers may well be slammed
with the accusation that «they predicted a cooling but it didn't happen.»
[UPDATE 3/6, 1 p.m.:] Isaac Held, a
climate modeler at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., responded today
with some caution about seeking relationships between the ocean and atmospheric changes around the tropics, and also drawing conclusions about their relationship to global warming.
I noted many
climate modelers are convinced that regional
climate forecasts — another top concern of officials and the public — are unlikely to improve much even
with far more powerful computers and years of extra work on simulations.
Even non
climate modelers with a solid science and math background can get the gist of the models.
This afternoon, I asked Marika Holland, a
climate and ice
modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, to consider recent ice trends in light of her work
with Jennifer E. Kay and Alexandra Jahn on a paper finding likely periods of ice recovery on the way to an ice - free Arctic in summer.
The
climate modelers can continue running simulations, refine their guesses and SWAGS, figure out how to tighten the course grain assumptions, maybe someday they will figure out how and why, along
with where and for how long the water is moving around on the planet.
Unfortunately, the figure also confirms that the spatial resolution of theoutput from the GCMs used in the Mediterranean study is too coarse for constructing detailed regional scenarios.To develop more detailed regional scenarios,
modelers can combine the GCM results
with output from statistical models.3 This is done by constructing a statistical model to explain the observed temperature or precipitation at a meteorological station in terms of a range of regionally - averaged
climate variables.
Climate models are presently upper left,
with the precision - centric efforts of
modelers bringing them inevitably to the upper right.
A scientist would never focus on ONLY one variable, CO2, probably a very minor variable
with no correlation
with average temperature, when there are dozens of variables affecting Earth's
climate... and then further focus only on manmade CO2, for political reasons (only that 3 % of all atmospheric CO2 can be blamed on humans... which is the goal of
climate modelers... along
with getting more government grants.)
Worse than that the
climate modelers aren't familiar
with what's needed to «draw» an algoritm to be used in computer - systemprogramming...... Please let us know where they spent their days when others listen to tutors and learnt.
Based on the peer review comments exposed in this article, I ran a model which showed
climate modelers to be children allowed to play
with big computers.
You wrote, «This error estimate is sort - of what the
climate modelers are doing and what you have a problem
with.»
Have dam designers, regulators, and
climate modelers fully grappled
with the «
climate persistence» that Joseph warned of and planned for?
This is what
climate modelers do
with computers.
In my study of the
climate modelers at the UK Met Office Hadley centre, I had identified a list of potential success factors that might explain why the
climate modelers appear to be successful (i.e. to the extent that we are able to assess it, they appear to build good quality software
with low defect rates, without following a standard software engineering process).
Richard, I agree
with you, that the
climate modeler cadre make predictions.
What real
climate scientists (not smarmy
climate modelers) forget is the
climate change cult is almost entirely interested in the FUTURE
climate, which they «predict»
with computer games.
We are not dealing
with a beaker in a laboratory here — unless these
modelers can explain all
climate variation on the planet over the last several billion years.
I also do this
with the wish that one or more expert
climate modelers were undertaking this task instead, because their input would be valuable in response to some specific comments made earlier.
My confidence in
climate modelers is inversely proportional to the confidence I see them show in this body that has proven to be agenda - driven and which obviously has a vested interest in what, if anything, predictive models do
with cloud feedback.
How could any culture have confidence in
Climate Models and / or
Modelers with that inconvenient fact?
Climate modelers have been confronted with the growing awareness that uncertainty dominates all climate proje
Climate modelers have been confronted
with the growing awareness that uncertainty dominates all
climate proje
climate projections.
I share
with you the wish of gaining better understanding on, how the
climate modelers have solved the problems.
He is a
climate policy analyst and
modeler in the IMAGE - project at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and has for many years been involved in the discussion
with climate skeptics.