Sentences with phrase «with cumulative emission»

A global phase - down could avoid 1.1 — 1.7 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent (CO2 equivalent is a measure used to compare impacts of greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential in relation to CO2) of GHG emissions per year by 2030, with cumulative emission reductions of nearly 100 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent by 2050.

We see that, in cases where post-2050 emissions are small, the spread is much tighter, as shown by those pathways with cumulative emissions less than 0.3 TtC between 2010 and 2050.

Extending this analysis to include pathways with cumulative emissions of more than 3 TtC, a resultant warming of more than 3 — 4 °C, or cases in which temperatures fail to peak by 2500 would be possible in principle, but would take us outside the range of pathways for which such a simple model is appropriate.

We choose the ranges of the parameters to give a range of emission pathways with cumulative emissions to 2200 between 0.7 and 3 TtC.

Next, historically CO2 concentration has not increased «more than linearly» with cumulative emissions as you state.

We construct an idealised future emissions pathway (dashed; left hand axis) that declines linearly from 2020 to zero in 2055, with cumulative emissions since the start of 2015 ~ 880bn tonnes of CO2.

Not exact matches

Cumulative emissions of CO2 since 1870 are set to reach 2015 billion tonnes in 2013 — with 70 per cent caused by burning fossil fuels and 30 per cent from deforestation and other land - use changes.

The United States is the second biggest emitter of carbon dioxide worldwide (and has contributed, with Europe, 52 % of the share of cumulative carbon emissions since industrialization).

Cumulative fossil fuel emissions in this scenario are ∼ 129 GtC from 2013 to 2050, with an additional 14 GtC by 2100.

A global warming target is converted to a fossil fuel emissions target with the help of global climate - carbon - cycle models, which reveal that eventual warming depends on cumulative carbon emissions, not on the temporal history of emissions [12].

Cumulative emissions of ~ 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 °C global warming, would spur «slow» feedbacks and eventual warming of 3 - 4 °C with disastrous consequences.

Mark — What are your thoughts about the analysis by Ramanathan and Feng (PNAS, Sept 17,2008: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803838105), in which they calculate the committed warming of cumulative emissions since the pre-industrial era as in the region of 2.4 °C (with a confidence interval of 1.4 °C to 4.3 °C), based on calculating the equilibrium temperature if GHG concentrations are held at 2005 levels into the future.

It's a big job, but it's one that has to be done anyway, since if the whole world tries to pull itself into prosperity by burning carbon at the rate the US does, then we run out of coal even at the highest estimates by 2100, and you wind up with no fossil energy and the hellish climate you get from 5000 gigatonnes cumulative emission.

Fig. 1 (b) shows that the anomaly between observations and the CMIP5 mean temperature response to cumulative emissions is halved by repeating the Millar analysis with the GISTEMP product instead of HadCRUT.

We ultimately face a question of what we trust more: our estimate of our cumulative emissions to date combined with our full knowledge of how much warming that might imply, or an estimate of how warm the system was in 2014 which is subject to error due to observational uncertainty and natural variability.

With more than 13,000 taxis traveling a cumulative 500 million miles per year, the improvement in fuel efficiency and emissions, as well as the improved safety for the passengers and pedestrians & cyclists should make a pretty big difference to the impact that the fleet has.

The AEO2015 cases with the largest differences in cumulative emissions from the Reference case are two cases that consider higher or lower macroeconomic growth.

The bottom line is, there is only one scenario with a good chance of averting irreversible climate change: one that caps global cumulative industrial - era carbon emissions at under one trillion tons.

Thus, two models with the same level of cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions may reach different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (see Smith and Edmonds 2006).

Looking at just the 2010 numbers, for example, they show that the United States, with its exceptionally large share of the global population of people with incomes above the $ 20 per day development threshold (capacity), as well as the world's largest share of cumulative emissions since 1990 (responsibility), is the nation with the largest share (33.1 percent) of the global RCI.

Although they also show graphically the spread of CO2 concentrations associated with their model runs, they don't report them in a way that allows easy analysis in cumulative emissions terms.

Solomon argues that «long - term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions, owing to [their] much longer atmospheric residence time.»

«With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice - free with an average contribution to sea - level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium.&raWith cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice - free with an average contribution to sea - level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium.&rawith an average contribution to sea - level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium.»

Our analysis combines published relationships between cumulative carbon emissions and warming, together with two possible versions of the relationship between warming and sea level, to estimate global and regional sea - level commitments from different emissions totals.

The Trump difference could take American emissions to 76 billion tons, with that 11 - billion - ton difference increasing cumulative global emissions by less than 2 percent.

Looking at the period 1850 - 2010, the United States led the pack, accounting for nearly 19 % of cumulative global emissions of GHGs, with the European Union in second place with 17 %, and China third, accounting for about 12 % of global cumulative emissions.

Solomon argued a couple of years ago that cumulative carbon emissions are the best way of assessing climate risk, since they avoid problems such as time lags that mess with other measures, such as atmospheric concentrations.

Hansen's 2013 paper argued that «cumulative emissions of 1000 billion tons, sometimes associated with 2C global warming, would spur «slow» feedbacks and eventual warming of 3 - 4C with disastrous consequences.»

Projections of long - term committed SLR as a function of cumulative carbon emissions, with 66 % CIs, assuming (triggered case) or not assuming (baseline case) that eventual collapse of the WAIS is already inevitable.

When we associate years with warming, sea level, and city commitments, we are referencing the 21st century years when the commitments are established through cumulative emissions, not the years farther in the future when the commitments are realized through sustained temperature increases and SLR.

Following these informal discussions, delegates agreed on text stating that limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone with a probability range of greater than 33 %, 50 %, and 66 %, to less than 2ºC since the period 1861 - 1880, will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1560 GtC, 0 and about 1210 GtC, and 0 and about 1000 GtC.

The group also proposed adding Table SPM.3 with the cumulative CO2 emissions, which was adopted by the WG.

Limiting the warming to less than 2 °C can be achieved, with a probability level of 66 %, if maximum cumulative CO2 emissions do not exceed 1000 GtC.

Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility: On the relationship between cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature change, China, Saudi Arabia and India expressed difficulties understanding that this relationship is linear, with China, supported by Saudi Arabia, suggesting referring to «positively correlated» instead of «approximately linear.»

Carbon and Other Biochemical Cycles: On cumulative fossil fuel emissions for the 2012 - 2100 period, China, Kenya and Venezuela, opposed by Germany, said presenting figures for the means together with the ranges created confusion.

Shown are three idealized Co2 emission paths (a) each consistent with total cumulative emissions (b) of 1 trillion tonnes of carbon -LSB-...]

This is a serious problem in itself, but a more fundamental problem with the emission budget concept seems to be more - or-less unexplored: Do cumulative carbon emission budgets have a sound scientific foundation?

Armed with our model ensemble projection, a temperature limit (2 °C), exceedance likelihood (33 %) and our «one model, one vote» ensemble interpretation, we find the cumulative carbon emission where approximately 33 % of our modeled realizations have warmed more than 2 °C.

Abstract Recent estimates of the global carbon budget, or allowable cumulative CO2 emissions consistent with a given level of climate warming, have the potential to inform climate mitigation policy discussions aimed at maintaining global temperatures below 2 ° C.

This ends up changing estimates of cumulative carbon emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the large uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions about remaining carbon budgets associated with staying within the 2C or 1.5 C warming targets.

Requires the EPA Administrator to promulgate regulations establishing a program to use emission allowances set aside to reduce GHG emissions from deforestation in developing countries, with the objectives to: (1) achieve 720 million tons of reductions in 2020 and a cumulative emission reduction of 6 billion tons by 2025, (2) build institutional capacities in developing nations; and (3) preserve intact, native forests.

Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rstaCumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rstacumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457

For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4 °C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long - term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100.

Under the assumption that society will work to avoid crossing a key temperature threshold, from figure 2a, the cumulative emission metric confirms that we have a choice of high emissions soon followed by rapid decarbonization, or more stringent emission cuts occurring soon with a lower rate of decarbonization in the future.

Consider two emission pathways, both with a cumulative total of 1 TtC, but one with a decaying emissions floor, and one with no emissions floor: the pathway without an emissions floor will cause a temperature peak earlier than the pathway with the decaying floor, as the emissions floor causes emissions to be emitted over a longer time period.

Combined with the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 concentration, this results in the approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

«The proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions depends in part on a cancellation of the saturation of carbon sinks with increasing cumulative emissions (leading to a larger airborne fraction of cumulative emissions for higher emissions) and the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric CO2 concentration [leading to a smaller increase in radiative forcing per unit increase in atmospheric CO2 at higher CO2 concentrations; Matthews et al. (2009)-RSB-.

Here, we consider how the concept of cumulative emissions interacts with other aspects of global change, such as emissions floors and rates of warming.

We also find that, for large cumulative totals in particular, cumulative metrics based on integrations over smaller time periods, such as 2010 — 2050, do not correlate with peak warming as well as cumulative emissions to a given date near the time of peak warming.

We show in figure 2 that cumulative emissions to the time of peak warming are tightly correlated with peak CO2 - induced warming for the case with no emissions floors, and here we investigate whether emissions floors affect this correlation.