Regarding Antarctic sea ice expansion, according to Manabe et al 1991 (Part 1 of this set of papers), the cause is decreased mixing
with deeper ocean layers, not increased as stated in the opening post.
Not exact matches
The rising temperatures cause
layers of
ocean water to stratify so the more oxygen - rich surface waters are less able to mix
with oxygen - poor waters from the
deeper ocean.
They compared isotope measurements on the silica skeletons of diatoms, which store environmental signals from the
ocean's surface,
with isotope signals from radiolarians, which live in
deeper water
layers.
Essentially, the researchers found that
deeper warm water is increasingly mixing
with the cool
layer of water that traditionally lies atop the eastern part of the Arctic
Ocean.
In the
oceans, warmer weather is driving stronger winds that are exposing
deeper layers of water, which are already saturated
with carbon and not as able to absorb as much from the atmosphere.
A unique shade
with an aqua fleck that resembles
deeper layers of
ocean water.
Now, for some purposes if you were looking at the very long term response to a very slowly varying radiative forcing, you might get away
with treating the
ocean with a
deeper equivalent mixed
layer.
The standard assumption has been that, while heat is transferred rapidly into a relatively thin, well - mixed surface
layer of the
ocean (averaging about 70 m in depth), the transfer into the
deeper waters is so slow that the atmospheric temperature reaches effective equilibrium
with the mixed
layer in a decade or so.
The
ocean is known to be thermally stratified,
with a warm
layer, some hundreds of meters thick, lying on top of a cold
deep ocean (a).
And in the long term, human emissions would have to drop to ZERO in order to stabilize concentrations, because the
deep ocean will eventually reach equilibrium
with the surface
layers.
It's what drives the atmospheric circulation and the
ocean currents that mix the upper warm
layers of the
ocean with the
deeper colder
layers, and vice versa.
Presumably, it does take a lot of energy to move that much water faster,
with the heat potentially being redistributed into
deeper ocean layers associated
with perhaps poorly understood fluctuations of the Antarctic convergence at depth?
If the surface
layer of the
ocean is not quickly exchanging energy
with the troposphere, which it can do easily and quickly but retaining the energy, why is it not heating up far more rapidly, If you are saying it is getting rid of it to the
deep oceans, how precisely is it doing this so quickly?
For example, as discussed in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred in the
deeper ocean layers, consistent
with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Also changes in
ocean overturning processes would change mixing rate
with the
deep cold
layers.
If there were no mixing in the
ocean, the
deep ocean would be a cold stagnant pool
with a thin warm surface
layer.
The rate of OHC uptake and solar are in the same order of magnitude,
with an inertial lag, the
deeper oceans would continue warming slowly while the upper
layer flattens.
With the temperature of the
deep oceans explained, all the sun is doing is warm the surface
layer from ~ 275K to ~ 290K.
Notably the observations show greater warming in the
deeper layers,
with the strongest
deep ocean warming occurring in the Atlantic & Southern O
ocean warming occurring in the Atlantic & Southern
OceanOcean.
Nor does residence time have anything to do
with oceanographers» imaginary bottleneck in the boundary
layer, where CO2 waits thousands of years for
deep ocean sequestration to make room in the surface
layer, constrained by equilibrium carbonate equations.
A boundary
layer with a higher temperature requires the
deeper ocean to have a higher temperature for it to sustain the same flux (deltaT) through the boundary
layer to the atmosphere (the
deeper ocean (< 1 mm) still needs to loose the solar energy or it would start boiling eventually).
For a method for that, may I encourage you to look at Roy Spencer's recent model on thermal diffusion in the
ocean: More Evidence that Global Warming is a False Alarm: A Model Simulation of the last 40 Years of Deep Ocean Warming June 25th, 2011 See especially his Figure Forcing Feedback Diffusion Model Explains Weak Warming in 0 - 700 m layer as Consistent with Low Climate Sensitivity His model appears to be more accurate than the IP
ocean: More Evidence that Global Warming is a False Alarm: A Model Simulation of the last 40 Years of
Deep Ocean Warming June 25th, 2011 See especially his Figure Forcing Feedback Diffusion Model Explains Weak Warming in 0 - 700 m layer as Consistent with Low Climate Sensitivity His model appears to be more accurate than the IP
Ocean Warming June 25th, 2011 See especially his Figure Forcing Feedback Diffusion Model Explains Weak Warming in 0 - 700 m
layer as Consistent
with Low Climate Sensitivity His model appears to be more accurate than the IPCC's.
Empirically, certain phases of ENSO are known to be associated
with trends at the
ocean surface that are the reverse of those at
deeper layers, consistent
with the notion that a positive surface warming is at times an
ocean cooling event.
Physically, C1 can be thought of as representing the concentration of CO2 in long - term stores such as the
deep ocean; C1 + C2 as representing the CO2 concentration in medium - term stores such as the thermocline and the long - term soil - carbon storage; and C = C1 + C2 + C3 as the concentration of CO2 in those sinks that are also in equilibrium
with the atmosphere on time scales of a year or less, including the mixed
layer, the atmosphere itself and rapid - response biospheric stores.
The Atlantic initiated the heat sequestration toward the end of the 20th century below 700 m. Indian
Ocean's
deeper layers warmed last and
with much smaller amplitude.
However, I have repeatedly pointed out that the opposite is also possible because the
deep ocean waters now returning to
ocean surface could be altering the pH of the
ocean surface
layer with resulting release of CO2 from the
ocean surface
layer.
This fresh water, together
with melt ‐ water from the melting ice pack in summer forms a permanent superficial
layer (usually about 200m
deep) of low salinity over the entire Arctic
Ocean, without which much less seasonal ice would form.
Right: global
ocean heat - content (HC) decadal trends (1023 Joules per decade) for the upper
ocean (surface to 300 meters) and two
deeper ocean layers (300 to 750 meters and 750 meters to the
ocean floor),
with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent
with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
If the
deep ocean were completely isolated so you just had to heat the mixed
layer, you'd have an approximately exponential response
with a the time scale for the of ~ 5 - 10 years.
The
deep ocean below that tends to have only slow exchange of heat
with the mixed
layer.
How quickly most of the temperature rise occurs is pretty sensitive to assumptions regarding the
deep ocean and its communication
with the mixed
layer.
Nor can one be confident that the contribution of subsea volcanic variability to
deep -
ocean temperature change is negligible in comparison
with that from the atmosphere, particularly when the relative densities of the two media and the distance of the benthic
layers from the atmosphere are taken into account.
In that diagram that top
layer 1 mm
deep and 0.3 C cooler than the
ocean bulk remains day and night
with no apparent change.
However, tropical storms cool the
ocean surface through mixing
with cooler
deeper ocean layers and through evaporation.
Right: global
ocean heat - content (HC) decadal trends (1023 J per decade) for the upper
ocean (surface to 300 m) and two
deeper ocean layers (300 — 750m and 750 m — bottom),
with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent
with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
To count the energy on the top
layers and combine it
with the energy rise in the
deep ocean, which they hope is caused by greenhouse gases, is deceptive.
In such events, the
oceans become stratified,
with warm
layers acting as «lid» on
deeper, cooler water.
This is in fact what we are ostensibly seeing
with «the
ocean ate my global warming» hypothesis i.e. the hiatus is energy going into the
deep ocean instead of the surface
layer.
However the tidal currents coming into contact
with the relief of the
ocean bottom (even if this is very
deep) creates waves which are propagated at the interface between two
layers of different densities.
Callendar suggested that the top
layer of the
ocean, that interacts
with the atmosphere, would easily become saturated
with carbon dioxide and that would affect its ability to absorb more, because, he thought, the rate of mixing of shallow and
deep oceanic waters was likely to be very slow.
But is that just in the mixed
layer (or entrainment into it) or in the
deep ocean, and does this include upwelling
with subsequent mixing or merging
with the mixed
layer via heating, etc.?