Name - calling is all Joel Shore has left in his bag of tricks, because the planet isn't cooperating
with his failed predictions.
-- There is an audience for doom and gloom, but not in reruns or endless remakes of the same old story laced
with failed predictions.
From the oracles of ancient Rome to modern shows like Doomsday Preppers, history is littered
with failed predictions about The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI, in prepper parlance).
Not exact matches
Now, my understanding of your position is that you made that original
prediction based on the belief that the PRC would be instituting reforms to deleverage aggressively and transfer wealth to the consumer (such that the incorrect
prediction was more that you were overly optimistic about the PRC's willingness to head off these systematic risks) and that your current prognosis of ~ 3 % GDP growth has an entirely separate causative element; that is to say, your previous
prediction was based on the idea the PRC would be enacting reforms to ward off systematic risks, whereas your current estimation of GDP growth is instead based on the drag produced by these very systematic risks the PRC has
failed to deal
with.
Some had a particular and curious hatred for St John Paul, announcing that there would be a Divine intervention to prevent his canonisation, only to fall into embarrassed silence when that
prediction failed along
with others.
If a group like this
fails in their
predictions, they are then forced to adapt to their wrong ideas and try to find a new meaning in which they are forced to deal
with a reality they can not change.
I am looking forward to a follow - up story
with these people when their very specific
predictions fail to happen.
Given the zero percent historical success rate of apocalyptic
predictions, coupled
with the incrementally gradual development of AI over the decades, we have plenty of time to build in
fail - safe systems to prevent any such AI apocalypse.
The most recent
predictions update substituted «The Last Airbender» (which
failed miserably
with critics)
with «Salt» in the sound categories, and it wasn't blind speculation.
Famed business - school thinker Clayton Christensen was splendidly profiled in The New Yorker a few weeks back, which set me to reflecting on his influential meditation on K - 12 education, Disrupting Class, the 2008 book (co-authored
with Michael Horn and Curtis Johnson) that startled the edu - cracy
with its bold
prediction that half of all high school courses will be delivered online by 2019 and its explanation that technology will produce the «disruptive innovation» in education that previous reform efforts have
failed to bring about.
[11] The original sales
predictions were not met,
with the Avalon
failing to challenge rivals such as the Holden Commodore and the Ford Falcon.
Nate Silver's fascinating new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many
Predictions Fail — But Some Don't includes some telling examples from the world of finance, but he drives home this idea even more forcefully
with his insights -LSB-...]
Looking back through previous stories concerning the PSPgo, the list is littered
with talks of «struggles,» «slow starts,» and
predictions of «miserable
failings.»
The fact that the hindcasts
with their method perform worse than a standard IPCC scenario, the number of
failed previous cooling
predictions, the negative skill in the Gulf Stream and deep - water formation regions... should these not have cautioned them against going to the media to forecast a pause in global warming?
Since Chip is here, it wuld be remiss to
fail to mention his own
prediction, made (jointly
with Pat Michaels) as recently as 1998:
Professor Paul Ehrlich (a futurist
with a rich history of
failed predictions, Stanford) is campaigning for a divestment from the fossil fuel industry.
Gore's new film is a sequel to his famed «An Inconvenient Truth,» a shockumentary filled
with mistaken assertions and
failed predictions.
17 years ago a Greenpeace report titled The Climate Time Bomb tried to frighten us
with lurid images and dire
predictions that have since
failed.
It is absurd that,
with the experience of these other democracies before them, and at the very time when the whole IPCC CAGW meme is in a state of collapse that Obama has decided to side step Congress and force through by regulation carbon emission controls based on his naïve faith in the
failed predictions of the IPCC process.
Sorry if I have
failed to grasp the import of this thread but what has the activity / opinion of the military got to do
with the the accuracy of «climate science»
predictions?
Anthony, if it should be the case that you are unalterably opposed to any union of science
with skepticism, then my
prediction will
fail.
Against all
predictions and projections from those who purport to know what they are talking about, cycle 23 became longer and longer
with the activity of cycle 24
failing to increase in accordance
with expectations.
Hansen's models have demonstrably
failed,
with his 1988
prediction now showing the last decade notably lower than scenario C, the massive CO2 cuts taken scenario.
While perhaps
failing to observe the irony of its own reporting, the Times juxtaposed the thoroughly discredited population explosion theories of the 1970s
with the (equally alarmist) global warming
predictions of our day.
A science that is just based on journalists and politicians crying out loud and experts
with a perfect track tecord of
failed predictions is no science but a fascist dogma.
With dams full in South Australia, and in most of eastern Australia, it would appear that the human - induced global warming disaster drought scenario, is yet another
failed prediction from the climate hysterical.
Team Purple could check for UHI, albedo change, pollution etc theories to see if those, combined
with the greenhouse effect, can produce
predictions which actually match reality, something Red's efforts conspicuously
fail to do.
The
failings of the models
with respect to multi-decadal climate
predictions (projections) is documented, for example, in
In an appearance on the Fox News program Your World
with Neil Cavuto, Morano clamed that modern climate change
predictions are
failing and that they are akin to «medieval witchcraft, where we used to blame witches for controlling the weather.»
We'd just take the average of all of the
failed stock market
prediction programs (there's hundreds of
failed programs out there) and average them, and make millions of dollars... what's wrong
with this picture?
The effect was to let the public be deluded about such things, by those who hoped that the public would rise up and demand politicial action, while the climate scientists could comfortably sit back, let the wild claims appear to be part of their famously «settled» science, knowing that if the «
predictions»
failed, they could point to their refereed journal papers that made no such explicit claims, or at least none
with claimed certainty, thus achieving sensational scare stories but
with plausible deniability.
One such post quoting Don Easterbrook (of
failed global cooling
prediction fame) began
with the following objection:
I can not keep up
with all of it, but the legitimate papers I know of making a
prediction of cooling are
failing — especially using GisTemp or NOAA.
I am formal about the view that anyone
with or without credentials has standing in climate science, when they are...... Right...... Let them
fail or thrive on correct
predictions.
I agree
with that but can not resist pointing out that it represents a
failed prediction by the «consumption is bad and we should all return to nature» lot, as well of course as the (far more powerful and more dishonest) «climate action will ruin our living standards» lot.
Ronald Bailey's «End of Doom» book spends a whole bookload of words
with references on how the catastrophe industry works, in spite of its
predictions and solutions always
failing.
Perhaps the best example of the fact that the IPCC is conservative in its
predictions with the fact that AR4
failed to predict the sudden and precipitous drop of the Arctic summer sea ice.
And despite grim
predictions, many do go on to law school, either
with high hopes of graduating at the top of the class, or that somehow, based on their determination and work ethic, they'll find a job where many others of comparable credentials
failed.
In that regard, the guidelines emphasize that lawyers have an obligation to avoid misleading the public: «Regulations include prohibitions against any misleading information, which includes references to past results that are not objectively verifiable,
predictions or guaranties of results, and testimonials that
fail to comply
with the requirements listed in Rule 4 - 7.13 (b)(8).
Finally, results
failed to support
predictions that support services received would be inversely associated
with daily negative mood.
At that level REIT total returns over the next 12 months were predicted to be negative and to underperform the broad stock market — and both
predictions were true, although the model
failed to predict the severity of the downturn
with REIT returns of -23 percent underperforming the stock market by 20 percentage points during those 12 months.