Corrected for this error, the satellite measurements are now in good agreement
with the global average surface temperature trends.
Not exact matches
With an El Niño now under way — meaning warm
surface waters in the Pacific are releasing heat into the atmosphere — and predicted to intensify, it looks as if the
global average surface temperature could jump by around 0.1 °C in just one year.
Ocean Only: The
global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above
average, tying
with 2010 as the second warmest such period on record, behind only 1998.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared
with long - term
global warming but a substantial one over a decade.
The
average global sea
surface temperature tied
with 2010 as the second highest for January — August in the 135 - year period of record, behind 1998, while the
average land
surface temperature was the fifth highest.
As New Scientist has previously reported, this means we are passing an ominous milestone,
with global surface temperatures now more than 1 °C above the pre-industrial
average.
With records dating back to 1880, the
global temperature across the world's land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was 0.75 °C (1.35 °F) higher than the 20th century
average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half of 2013, the January — June global temperature across land and ocean surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century aver
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half of 2013, the January — June
global temperature across land and ocean
surfaces tied
with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century aver
with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century
average.
Annual
average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher
temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual
average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both
with second order polynomial fits.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012,
with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
With the contribution of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29
With the contribution of such record warmth at year's end and
with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29
with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the
average global temperature across land and ocean
surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
The September globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.1 °F, tying
with 2014 as the second highest
global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016 record, behind 2015 by 0.16 °F.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared
with global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared
with global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), running
average over 37 months.
Since
global average surface temperature exhibits a long - term sinusoidal trend, one can display either a positive or negative trend
with careful start and end point choices.
This was one of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014)
With the
global -
average surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of
global average temperature increase for the
surface compared
with higher levels in the atmosphere.
«The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean
surfaces tied
with 2010 as the highest on record for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century
average.»
If one postulates that the
global average surface temperature tracks the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, possibly
with some delay, then when the CO2 concentration continues to rise monotonically but the
global average surface temperature shows fluctuations as a function of time
with changes in slope (periods wherein it decreases), then you must throw the postulate away.
Using monthly -
averaged global satellite records from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP [5]-RRB- and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in conjunction
with Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) extended and reconstructed SST (ERSST) dataset [7] we have examined the reliability of long - term cloud measurements.
Nonetheless, there is a tendency for similar equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS, especially using a Charney ECS defined as equilibrium
global time
average surface temperature change per unit tropopause - level forcing
with stratospheric adjustment, for different types of forcings (CO2, CH4, solar) if the forcings are not too idiosyncratic.
My amateur spreadsheet tracking and projecting the monthly NASA GISS values suggests that while 2018 and 2019 are likely to be cooler than 2017, they may also be the last years on Earth
with global average land and ocean
surface temperature anomaly below 1C above pre-industrial
average (using 1850 - 1900 proxy).
Secondly, unlike the
global average surface temperature trend, which has a lag
with respect to radiative forcing, there is no such lag when heat content is measured in Joules (see http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-247.pdf).
There can / will be local and regional, latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal, and internal variability - related deviations to the pattern (in
temperature and in optical properties (LW and SW) from components (water vapor, clouds, snow, etc.) that vary
with weather and climate), but the
global average effect is at least somewhat constrained by the
global average vertical distribution of solar heating, which requires the equilibrium net convective + LW fluxes, in the
global average, to be sizable and upward at all levels from the
surface to TOA, thus tending to limit the extent and magnitude of inversions.)
As critics of «
global warming» science have pointed out for years, there are serious issues
with the
surface temperature datasets that result in corrupted
global average temperatures that are currently used by policymakers.
No one has yet managed to measure the
average global surface temperature — once again incapable of rigorous definition —
with any precision.
Global average surface temperature anomalies, 2000 - 2100, as projected by MAGICC run
with the original RCPs as well as
with the set of RCPs modified to reflect the EPA 30 % emissions reductions from U.S power plants.
The crux of Bates» claim is that NOAA, the federal government's top agency in charge of climate science, published a poorly - researched but widely praised study
with the political goal of disproving the controversial
global warming hiatus theory, which suggests that
global warming slowed down from 1998 until 2012
with little change in globally -
averaged surface temperatures — a direct contrast to
global warming advocates» claim that the earth's
temperature has been constantly increasing.
The second is that the «
average» absolute
global mean «
surface»
temperature is only accurate to about + / - 2 C degrees, includes «sub-
surface temperatures averaged with above
surface temperatures at varying altitudes.
(3) This cloud cover reaction is a rapid, positive feedback
with respect to TSI, and a slow negative feedback
with respect to
global average surface temperature.
From such a
temperature distribution one may derive a mean
global surface temperature and may compare it
with the globally
average near -
surface temperature for the real Earth - atmosphere system of about 288 K.
When he presented his misleading graph, when he said 97 % of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite data but not to
surface temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in
surface global averages but ignores major estimates of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
The
temperature that climate scientists typically reference and care about
with regard to climate change is «the
average global temperature across land and ocean
surface areas».
While the warming of
average global surface temperatures has slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount of heat accumulated by the
global climate has not,
with over 90 percent being absorbed by the oceans.
Global warming is an occurrence that is well documented, with average global surface temperatures now 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) higher than at the start of the industrial revol
Global warming is an occurrence that is well documented,
with average global surface temperatures now 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) higher than at the start of the industrial revol
global surface temperatures now 1.5 °F (0.83 °C) higher than at the start of the industrial revolution.
The report chooses a scenario
with 66 % probability of keeping the
average global surface temperature rise throughout the 21st century to below 2C.
Global average surface temperatures for each year
with their respective uncertainties (width of the curves) from Berkeley Earth.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012,
with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
There are a number of papers by Samuel S. Shen looking at the design of observing networks for estimating spherical harmonics
with idealised
surface temperature distributions, but I'm not aware of the technique having been used to reconstruct
global average temperature using the real distribution of stations and data.
A new study of the temporary slowdown in the
global average surface temperature warming trend observed between 1998 and 2013 concludes the phenomenon represented a redistribution of energy within the Earth system,
with Earth's ocean absorbing the extra heat.
There is a major question in my mind of the wisdom of using a «
global»
surface temperature to begin with and a «global» surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature to begin
with and a «
global»
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin
averaged with a land based «
Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
Surface»
temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is available.
And, of course, we do not need to
global climate models to run impact models
with an annual
average increase in the mean
surface air
temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.
C. warmer than it was
with respect to the start of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use actual
average global land - ocean
surface temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that far back).
It says the
average land and ocean -
surface temperature for 2001 - 2010 was estimated to be 14.47 °C, or 0.47 °C above the 1961 - 1990
global average and +0.21 °C above the 1991 - 2000
global average (
with a factor of uncertainty of ± 0.1 °C).
The NOAA National Climatic Data Center's annual summary posted on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest on record,
with an
average global surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile data series would in the present case result in a time series where warming continues
with less plateauing than we see in the existing data on
global average surface temperature.
One study estimates that there are likely to be places on Earth where unprotected humans without cooling mechanisms, such as air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if
global average surface temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 ° C).16
With warming of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 ° C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half of the world's people now live could become intolerable.7
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared
with long - term
global warming but a substantial one over a decade.
The scientists» main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30 - 40 years, and compare those trends
with the graph for
global average surface temperature.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012,
with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red