Sentences with phrase «with global model simulations»

Impacts of the fall 2007 California wildfires on surface ozone: Integrating local observations with global model simulations

Not exact matches

Dr Ryan Hossaini of Lancaster University and colleagues use simulations with a global chemical transport model to examine the sensitivity of future stratospheric chlorine and ozone levels to sustained dichloromethane growth.

Simulations with a three - dimensional global model suggest that the net result of these counteractive processes is a 20 percent overall reduction in total tropospheric O3.

Unfortunately, current simulation models, which combine global climate models with aerosol transport models, consistently underestimate the amount of these aerosols in the Arctic compared to actual measurements during the spring and winter seasons, making it difficult to accurately assess the impact of these substances on the climate.

FMI has been involved in research project, which evaluated the simulations of long - range transport of BB aerosol by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS - 5) and four other global aerosol models over the complete South African - Atlantic region using Cloud - Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations to find any distinguishing or common model biases.

Model simulations of 20th century global warming typically use actual observed amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.

After the field campaign, Fast will perform computer simulations to help evaluate all of the field campaign data and quantify the uncertainties associated with using coarse grid global climate models to study megacity emissions and to determine the radiative impact of the Mexico City particulates on the local and regional climate.

«Evaluating Global Streamflow Simulations by a Physically - based Routing Model Coupled with the Community Land Model.»

GFDL GAMDT (The GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team), 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2 - LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulaGlobal Atmospheric Model Development Team), 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2 - LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulatModel Development Team), 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2 - LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulaglobal atmosphere and land model AM2 - LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulatmodel AM2 - LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations.

The simulations were produced with a suite of global and regional climate models as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

Working with Tom Chase, a colleague at the institute, the researchers were comparing climate simulations from the Community Land Model — part of a select group of global models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 climate change report — against observations.

In most future global warming simulations with climate models no meltwater from Greenland is included so far.

With error bars provided, we can use the PIOMAS ice volume time series as a proxy record for reality and compare it against sea - ice simulations in global climate models.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

In a recent paper by Bengtsson & Hodges (2006), simulations with the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model (GCM) were analysed, but they found no increase in the number of mid-latitude storms world - wide.

For Figure 1, global mean temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with global mean temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each model.

There are some long simulations with global climate models, but I don't know if there have been any studies dedicated to answer your question.

I have the same problem with the global temperature simulations, the most recent measured data (12 years) is not trending as the models predicted.

Member of the team Alena Kimbrough says, «We've shown ENSO is an important part of the climate system that has influenced global temperatures and rainfall over the past millennium... Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century - scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»

«The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 non-overlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 - 2008 trend -LRB--0.05 to +0.05 C per decade).»

Anderson, J.L., et al., 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2 / LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations, J. Climate, in press.

Forest 2006, along with several other climate sensitivity studies, used simulations by the MIT 2D model of zonal surface and upper - air temperatures and global deep - ocean temperature, the upper - air data being least influential.

Using a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes, they ran the model 400 times with possible tweaks.

As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).

Changes in tracer distribution in the troposphere and stratosphere are calculated from a control and doubled CO2 climate simulation run with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model.

In the first study, the research team from PNNL and Los Alamos National Laboratory used idealized global model simulations of the aquaplanet with Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS - A) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to run at low, high and variable resolutmodel simulations of the aquaplanet with Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS - A) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to run at low, high and variable resolutModel for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS - A) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to run at low, high and variable resolutModel (WRF) to run at low, high and variable resolutions.

I'm puzzled by your assignment of only a 30 percent probability to the proposition that «Global climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and pollution aerosol) provide better agreement with historical observations in the second half of the 20th century than do simulations with only natural forcing (solar and volcanoes).»

Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70 % of the observed greening trend.

Global climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and pollution aerosol) provide better agreement with historical observations in the second half of the 20th century than do simulations with only natural forcing (solar and volcanoes).

These reconstructions are highly relevant when comparing ocean data with model simulations of global and regional climate change.

IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability: «Observed Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies... lie well outside the range of Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies in CMIP5 simulations with natural forcing only, but are consistent with the ensemble of CMIP5 simulations including both anthropogenic and natural forcing...» (Ref.: Working Group I contribution to fifth assessment report by IPCC.

The question that is addressed in my post is, with respect to multi-decadal model simulations, are global and / or regional climate models ready to be used for skillful regional projections by the impacts and policymaker communities?

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

Van Haren et al (2012) also nicely illustrate the dependence of regional skill on lateral boundary conditions: simulations of (historic) precipitation trends for Europe failed to match the observed trends when lateral boundary conditions were provided from an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate model simulations, while a much better correspondence with observations was obtained when reanalyses were used as boundary condition.

The authors investigate how the global monsoon (GM) precipitation responds to the external and anthropogenic forcing in the last millennium by analyzing a pair of control and forced millennium simulations with the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO - G) coupled ocean — atmosphere model.

This, plus the fact that remarkable close simulations of the time series are obtained with a model consisting of a few nonlinear differential equations suggest the intriguing possibility that there are simple rules governing the complex behavior of global paleoclimate.»

Metzger et al. (NRL Stennis Space Center), 5.0 (3.4 - 6.0), Modeling The Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) 3.1 was run in forecast mode without data assimilation, initialized with July 1, 2015 ice / ocean analyses, for ten simulations using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) atmospheric forcing fields from 2005 - 2014.

We compare global - scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes.

Coupled simulations, using six different models to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050 (Sarmiento et al., 2004), showed global increases in primary production of 0.7 to 8.1 %, but with large regional differences, which are described in Chapter 4.

Baseline (i.e., mean 1971 — 1999) global varies between 461 Pg C and 998 Pg C, and increases with ΔMLT for all vegetation models under all 110 climate and CO2 increase scenarios (Fig. 1)(see Materials and Methods and SI Text for details of simulations).

All data are shown as global mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black, Hadley Centre / Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3); Brohan et al., 2006) and, in (a) as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural forcings.

This external control is demonstrated by ensembles of model simulations with identical forcings (whether anthropogenic or natural) whose members exhibit very similar simulations of global mean temperature on multi-decadal time scales (e.g., Stott et al., 2000; Broccoli et al., 2003; Meehl et al., 2004).

Figure 2.3: Observed global average changes (black line), model simulations using only changes in natural factors (solar and volcanic) in green, and model simulations with the addition of human - induced emissions (blue).

An estimate of the forced response in global mean surface temperature, from simulations of the 20th century with a global climate model, GFDL's CM2.1, (red) and the fit to this evolution with the simplest one - box model (black), for two different relaxation times.

To help introduce myself, I'm starting with a post on a topic that I've been working on recently: the simulation of tropical cyclones in global atmospheric models.

Climate simulations are consistent in showing that the global mean warming observed since 1970 can only be reproduced when models are forced with combinations of external forcings that include anthropogenic forcings (Figure 9.5).

The simulated global mean temperature anomalies in (b) are from 19 simulations produced by five models with natural forcings only.

In Phase II of AeroCom, a large - scale model intercomparison was performed to document the current state of OA modeling in the global troposphere, evaluate the OA simulations by comparison with observations, identify weaknesses that still exist in models, explain the agreements and disagreements between models and observations, and attempt to identify and analyze potential systematic biases in the models.

Figure 2.4 (Folland et al., 2001) shows simulations of global land - surface air temperature anomalies in model runs forced with SST, with and without bias adjustments to the SST data before 1942.

The IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) of 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high) for doubled CO2 (Figure 1).