Not exact matches
The scientists reported that northeast Greenland was stable —
with a zero
ice mass loss — until about 2003, when summer temperatures spiked.
This, coupled
with P5's orbit and its very small size, makes it very unlikely that its
mass loss would be due to
ice sublimation.
Despite being trumpeted in certain circles as meaning that there's really nothing to worry about regarding the Greenland
ice sheet, the authors made a point of noting (although not in this press release) that an additional source of
mass loss needs to be identified in order to reconcile their results
with the GRACE data (which do not show a reduction in
mass loss for the same period).
Gladstone et al. (2012) also investigated the future of PIG, and they too found ongoing
ice mass loss to be likely under a «business as usual scenario» (IPCC),
with full collapse of the main trunk of PIG during the 22nd century still a possibility.
Joughin et al. (2010) applied a numerical
ice sheet model to predicting the future of PIG, their model suggested ongoing
loss of
ice mass from PIG,
with a maximum rate of global sea level rise of 2.7 cm per century.
Our modelled values are consistent
with current rates of Antarctic
ice loss and sea - level rise, and imply that accelerated
mass loss from marine - based portions of Antarctic
ice sheets may ensue when an increase in global mean air temperature of only 1.4 - 2.0 deg.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether
mass loss from these
ice sheets will vary linearly
with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
Just thinking out loud (and I only know enough to be dangerous;), but
with IR radiation mapping during winter, one might be able to infer a sub-surface temperature profile and compare that
with mass loss and
ice sheet thickness.
The lower trend found by our study is consistent
with the median projected sums of thermal expansion and glacier
mass loss, implying that no net contribution from polar
ice sheets is needed over 1901 - 1990.
8) Accelerated
mass loss in Greenland and / or Antarctica, perhaps
with another huge
ice shelf breaking off, but in any case coupled
with another measurable rise in the rate of sea level rise, 9) The Fifth Assessment Report (2012 - 2013) really spelling out what we face
with no punches pulled.
IIRC, the limit on
mass loss was attributed to the narrowness of passes in the mountains, but if the
ice loss is behind the mountains as the ocean reaches beyond them, and mixes salt into the system
with tides, then only the flushing of salt and icebergs via meltwater would limit the rate of melt in the (brand new) Greenland Sea.
The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive
ice — temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic15, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea
ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems,
ice - sheet
mass balance and human activities in the Arctic...» *** This is the heart of polar amplification and has very little to do
with your stated defintion of amplifying the effects of warming going on at lower latitudes.
Although that's really all that needs be said, I should add that jetfuel is trying to compare cumulative year - over-year land
ice mass loss in Antarctica
with (cyclical) seasonal river / lake
ice volume gain in Canada - and ignoring the inevitable melt - away of the latter.
If both Greenland and West Antarctica shed the entirety of their
ice burden, global sea levels would rise by 12 to 14 m. Although these icecaps would not disintegrate within a century, the
loss of even a third of their
mass — quite plausible if the rate of polar
ice loss continues to double each decade — would force up the oceans by at least 4 m,
with disastrous socioeconomic and environmental consequences.
In the context of
loss of permafrost and
ice mass, delegates discussed whether to refer to changes as «significant,»
with a statistical meaning, or «considerable,» to put numbers in the right context.
-- The third, being the observed destabilization of the geosphere due to both the pace of terrestrial
ice loss and relatively sudden and uneven climatic redistribution of the oceans»
mass,
with a consequent rise in seismic events and in volcanoes» cooling sulphate emissions, which have (according to Prof. McGuire, adviser to Munich Re on vulcanism risks) accelerated slowly on a 1.25 % / yr trend over the last 30 years.
When doing this
with sea level data, as
with OHC, as
with tropospheric sensible heat, as
with glacial
ice mass loss, we are seeing a background, longer - term change that is non-linear, and for several decades now, accelerating.
The principal processes affecting the
mass balance and dynamics of the
ice sheets are
ice mass input from snowfall
with losses from sublimation and drifting.
Present uncertainties of
ice shelf
mass loss are large, however,
with estimates of their contribution to sea level rise ranging from a few centimeters to over one meter.
Each circular graph is proportional in area to the total
ice mass loss measured from each
ice shelf, in gigatons per year,
with the proportion of
ice lost due to the calving of icebergs denoted by hatched lines and the proportion due to basal melting denoted in black.
Evidence is also strong that Alaska
ice mass loss contributes to global sea level rise, 65
with latest results permitting quantitative evaluation of
losses globally.66
Data for the modern rate of annual
ice sheet
mass changes indicate an accelerating rate of
mass loss consistent
with a
mass loss doubling time of a decade or less (Fig. 10).
What the report says about Alaskan glaciers and climate change: The collective
ice mass of all Arctic glaciers has decreased every year since 1984,
with significant
losses in Alaska.
What Jimmy D also ignores is that
ice mass loss can also be due to: a) reduced precipitation b) reduced albedo due to reduced cloudiness (goes together
with reduced precipitation) c) reduced albedo due to soot and / or volcanic ash, both of which have been seen in the last five years d) other local phenomena
To say nothing of the warming trends also noticed in, for example: * ocean heat content * wasting glaciers * Greenland and West Antarctic
ice sheet
mass loss * sea level rise due to all of the above * sea surface temperatures * borehole temperatures * troposphere warming (
with stratosphere cooling) * Arctic sea
ice reductions in volume and extent * permafrost thawing * ecosystem shifts involving plants, animals and insects
«As a result, the
loss of glacier
mass worldwide, along
with the corresponding release of carbon, will affect high latitude marine ecosystems, particularly those surrounding the major
ice sheets that now receive fairly limited land - to - ocean fluxes of carbon.»
Christopher A. Shuman Research Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Specialties:
Ice elevation changes and glacier
mass losses using altimetry in combination
with other remote sensing in the Antarctica Peninsula, the accuracy of early ICESat - 1 data, composite temperature records derived from AWS passive microwave data from SMMR and SSM / I and IR data from AVHRR
We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides
with the initiation of
ice loss in Iceland from
ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends.
As explained in the press release, the scientists began
with the measure of sea level rise between 2005 and 2013, then deducted the amount of rise due to meltwater (e.g., melting
ice sheets and
loss of glacier
mass worldwide) and then the amount of rise due to the expansion of water from the warming in the upper portion of the world's oceans (which scientists have good data on).
Greenland
ice sheet
mass balance: distribution of increased
mass loss with climatic warming: 2003 — 07 versus 1992 — 2002
Current total
ice -
loss in Greenland is running at an estimated 200 Gte / yr and Antarctica at 150 Gte / yr (
with ice mass gain in the east and
loss in the west —
with some estimates of a net gain)-- at that rate of 1mm / yr, by 2100 the global
ice -
loss would raise sea level by a little over 3 inches.
Current models suggest
ice mass losses increase
with temperature more rapidly than gains due to increased precipitation and that the surface
mass balance becomes negative (net
ice loss) at a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9 to 4.6 °C.
Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current
mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica,
with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002 - 15 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT / yr for Greenland (including peripheral
ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT / year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 mm / year and 0.26 mm / year average global sea level change.
While the
loss of glacier
mass has continued for the past few decades
with a slight increase in recent years, the rate of
mass loss from the Greenland
ice sheet has dramatically increased in the past decade and continues to increase.
We argue that
ice sheets in contact
with the ocean are vulnerable to non-linear disintegration in response to ocean warming, and we posit that
ice sheet
mass loss can be approximated by a doubling time up to sea level rise of at least several meters.
Despite being trumpeted in certain circles as meaning that there's really nothing to worry about regarding the Greenland
ice sheet, the authors made a point of noting (although not in this press release) that an additional source of
mass loss needs to be identified in order to reconcile their results
with the GRACE data (which do not show a reduction in
mass loss for the same period).