This swing corresponds
with an implied probability shift from 2.44 % to 20 %, tops in the league.
The table below displays the 2014 - 15 NHL Divisional Odds at Bovada along
with the implied probability for each team.
Below examines the NBA Divisional odds at BWin along
with the implied probability for each team, and their updated odds at Sportsbook.com.
Our research reveals that although Kentucky's probability to win the title moved from 34.6 % to 38.5 %, the value is still on taking the field at -120 That's because -120 equates
with an implied probability of 54.55 % which is still slightly lower than 61.5 % chance we give the field of winning the title.
The list below examines the odds for the top six MVP candidates along
with their implied probability of winning.
Their current odds of -550 correspond
with implied probability of 84.6 %.
The table below displays the odds at Bovada and Sportsbook.com, alongside
with the implied probability for each landing spot.
The table below compares the current odds to be the first head coach fired at 5Dimes, Bovada and Sportsbook.com (SB)
with the implied probability for each.
Additionally, these lines are incredibly juiced up
with implied probabilities adding up to 145 %.
Not exact matches
Weigel also confuses ecclesiological categories (what makes the Church)
with eschatological categories (who is saved), misusing a text from St. Augustine to
imply that we can now,
with some
probability, of living persons know who is «wheat» and who is «weed.»
The Capitals may not be offering value, but by comparing Luszczyszyn's
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the championship, I was able to determine which Stanley Cup futures were offering a positive expected value.
Their +1200 odds, however,
imply only a 7.7 % chance, making them the only team listed
with a higher «true»
probability than
implied probability.
The Northwest is far and away the least competitive division,
with the Thunder listed at 1/50 — an
implied probability of more than 98 %.
The Browns are being viewed as an afterthought
with an 11.11 %
implied probability of reaching the postseason.
For example, a team
with +500 odds would have a 16.67 %
implied probability (100 / (100 +500).
With their overtime win over Tampa Bay, the Packers improved from +20000 to +4000 to win the Super Bowl, an
implied probability increase of 0.5 % to 2.44 %.
Along
with the odds to make or miss the playoffs, we wanted to know the
implied probability for each franchise to reach the postseason.
For anybody that's not familiar
with sports betting, those odds can be easily converted into an
implied probability.
The table below compares the current championship odds and
implied probabilities at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
with the latest
probabilities from our bracket simulator in order to find undervalued teams.
We then compared these
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the national championship in order to determine which College Basketball futures were offering value.
In the table below, you will find the odds from three different sportsbooks
with the accompanying
implied probabilities (IP).
However, that
implied probability correlated
with a future price of +267 — not the -115 that was being offered at 5Dimes.
By converting each school's championship futures into an
implied probability, we were able to find four schools
with a positive expected value: Villanova (+1250), Virginia (+575), Gonzaga (+2200) and Iowa State (+2800).
We then compared those
implied probabilities with our own simulation results to determine which teams were offering value in the futures market, and which should be avoided.
We then compared these
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the national championship in order to determine which college basketball futures were offering value.
By comparing these
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I was able to determine which college basketball futures were offering a positive expected value.
We then compared those
implied probabilities with our own simulation results to determine which teams were offering value in the futures market, and which should be avoided like the plague.
By converting each school's championship futures into an
implied probability, we were able to find three schools
with a positive expected value: West Virginia (+3000), Texas A&M (+4000) and Virginia (+1200).
By converting each school's future price into an
implied probability, I have been able to identify several schools
with a positive expected value.
The table below compares the
implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek
with the
probabilities from our bracket simulator.
By comparing these
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I'm able to determine which futures are the smartest bets.
By comparing these
probabilities with the
implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I'm able to determine which futures are offering a positive expected value.
In this nifty series of charts below, I've listed each team's odds via BetOnline, along
with corresponding
implied probabilities.
With +330 odds,
implied probability of 23.3 %, there is value betting the World Series favorite.
The implication of the new subatomic physics was that certainty was replaced by
probability, or the notion of tendencies rather than absolutes: «we can never predict an atomic event
with certainty; we can only predict the likelihood of its happening»... This directly contradicts the mechanistic model we explored above, and it
implies that a subject such as normal birth needs to be looked at as a whole rather than its parts...»
The weighted sum is calculated just using the three categories
with the largest
implied probabilities, because the
probabilities for other categories are so small and unstable.
Notably, the last line of the abstract:» [
with caveats]... these results
imply lower
probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.»
The result «
implies either that the New York - New Jersey area simply experienced a very rare event (
with climate change playing no significant role), or that a climate - change influence increased the
probability of its occurrence,» they wrote in a 2013 study on Sandy's angle of approach.
Implied probability of failing to get a record is 30 % to 39 %
with last trade at 32 %.
«To put the significance of this fat tail in perspective, the «
probability distribution representing the uncertainty in expected climate change
implies that the risk of catastrophic outcome is more than forty thousand times more probable than that from an asteroid collision
with the earth»
When (If) we are interested in S, it's natural to plot the likelihood versus S, but then we should not equate equal areas
with equal
probabilities as that would
imply a prior uniform in S.
Of course, none of this is to
imply that science will be able to assign precise
probabilities to such extreme outcomes in all or even most cases;
with rare events, quantifying their likelihood is difficult.
The statistics associated
with scenarios from the literature do not
imply probability of occurrence (e.g., the frequency distribution of the scenarios may be influenced by the use of IS92a as a reference for many subsequent studies).
I simply strongly disagree
with the idea that observations
imply this particular
probability.