Global warming could correlate
with increased water vapour, methane too, but CO2 as well.
Not exact matches
In a warming world, atmospheric
water vapour content is expected to rise due to an
increase in saturation
water vapour pressure
with air temperature.
In addition, around the tropopause the air is close to saturation
with water and a small
increase of
vapour from aircraft can create wide expanses of thin cirrus clouds that cause even stronger warming.
Total column
water vapour has
increased over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3 % per decade from 1988 to 2004, consistent in pattern and amount
with changes in SST and a fairly constant relative humidity.
Observational evidence indicates that the frequency of the heaviest rainfall events has likely
increased within many land regions in general agreement
with model simulations that indicate that rainfall in the heaviest events is likely to
increase in line
with atmospheric
water vapour concentration.
So we've nailed the Arctic after a fashion & Rondonia for three months of the year, both instances
with quite extreme
increases in
water vapour.
Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case — the
increase in
water vapour as surface air temperature rises causes a change in the moist - adiabatic lapse rate (the decrease of temperature
with height) such that the surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases
with increasing temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft).
Furthermore natural global temperature swings alter the natural background greenhouse effect constantly as
water vapour held in the atmosphere
increases and decreases naturally
with changing global temperatures.
The observed regional changes are consistent in pattern and amount
with the changes in SST and the assumption of a near - constant relative humidity
increase in
water vapour mixing ratio.
Empirical data show clearly that the IPCC's deterministic models overestimate the amount of warming associated
with increases in
water vapour (see paper summaries in NIPCC - II, Chapter 1).
We have far more data about
increasing CO2 than
increasing water vapor, hence if we want to test this hypothesis by looking for a correlation between global warming and the combined effect of CO2 and H2O, a correlation
with CO2 alone is more feasible than one involving
water vapour.
I'm puzzled why it is that people don't get excited by the apparent probability that the evaporative cooling / latent heat transfer should provide a major negative feedback
with any T
increase /
increased water vapour.
«The pervasive
increase in
water vapour changes the intensity of precipitation events
with no doubt whatsoever,» Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research told a meeting in January.
For instance if a 1 degree
increase in T leads to lets say a further 3 degree
increase through positive feedback
with water vapour then shouldn't this 3 degree
increase lead to a further 9 degree
increase and then a 27 degree
increase etc..
The amount of
water vapour can stay the same or on some occasions, rise
with increasing temperatures.
A slight change of ocean temperature (after a delay caused by the high specific heat of
water, the annual mixing of thermocline
waters with deeper
waters in storms) ensures that rising CO2 reduces infrared absorbing H2O
vapour while slightly
increasing cloud cover (thus Earth's albedo), as evidenced by the fact that the NOAA data from 1948 - 2008 shows a fall in global humidity (not the positive feedback rise presumed by NASA's models!)
Further evidence for forced changes arises from widespread melting of the cryosphere,
increases in
water vapour in the atmosphere and changes in top - of - the atmosphere radiation that are consistent
with changes in forcing.
It is my contention (and that of many others) that in fact this is the default null hypothesis and until proponents of the anthropogenic global warming hyothesis come up
with some better evidence to back up their claims of imminent dangerous warming driven by co2 and a
water vapour feedback to its
increasing levels, the null hypothesis is the best one we have.
Simulations
with GCMs by Stevenson et al. (2000) and Grewe et al. (2001) for the 21st century indicate a decrease in the lifetime of tropospheric ozone as
increasing water vapour enhances the dominant ozone sink from the oxygen radical in the 1D excited state (O (1D)-RRB- plus
water (H2O) reaction.
They combined simple energy balance considerations
with a physical assumption for the way
water vapour is transported, and separated the contributions of surface heating from solar radiation and from
increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to obtain the two sensitivities.
The
water vapour content of the air has been roughly constant since more than 50 years but the humidity of the upper layers of the troposphere has been decreasing: the IPCC foretold the opposite to assert its «positive
water vapour feedback»
with increasing CO2.
Truth n ° 10 The
water vapour content of the air has been roughly constant since more than 50 years but the humidity of the upper layers of the troposphere has been decreasing: the IPCC foretold the opposite to assert its «positive
water vapour feedback»
with increasing CO2.
So, that's 1.2 degrees C for the basic physics of added greenhouse effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; coupled
with a further
increase of a similar magnitude from changes in atmospheric
water vapour that come about as a direct consequence.
Or what the possible role of
increasing / decreasing
water vapour content in
increasing / decreasing the radiative forcing
with multi-decadal oscillations?
Based on chemical transport model studies, the RF from the
increase in stratospheric
water vapour due to oxidation of CH4 is estimated to be +0.07 [± 0.05] W m — 2,
with a low level of scientific understanding.
«The logic is clear: when temperatures
increase there is more evaporation and the atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb
water vapour,
with the result that its energy content is higher.
We calculate an escape time of the order of 108 — 109 years even
with the
increased stratospheric
water vapour and temperature at 16 × CO2.
Hence, even as the potential for heavier precipitation results from
increased water vapour amounts, the duration and frequency of events may be curtailed, as it takes longer to recharge the atmosphere
with water vapour.
Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, owing to
increased water vapour, lead to more intense precipitation events even when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly, and
with prospects for even stronger events when the overall precipitation amounts
increase.
A warming of 16 — 24 °C produces a moderately moist greenhouse,
with water vapour increasing to about 1 % of the atmosphere's mass, thus
increasing the rate of hydrogen escape to space.
Bear in mind that the representation of clouds in climate models (and of the
water vapour which is intimately involved
with cloud formation) is such as to amplify the forecast global warming from
increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide — on average over most of the models — by a factor of about three (5).
The resulting warming due to the
water vapour is in fact larger than the initial warming due to the CO2 that forced it to happen, and this is the point of the Lacis paper - yes,
water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas than CO2, but
water vapour doesn't change systematically
with time UNLESS CO2 is changing and initiating a warming that sets into motion the surface and atmospheric processes that allow
water vapour to systematically
increase.
The
increase is broadly consistent
with the extra
water vapour that warmer air can hold.
However, that equilibrium state — given the changes in
water vapour, clouds and
increases in surface temperature happens to absorb more LW than you started
with.
Conceptually wise, it may be a mistake to say that when GW takes effect the air will be drier, but rather
water vapour density
increases with temperature and relative humidity will drop accordingly, it is perhaps this is what the models are calculating.
The link between heat and Hurricane intensity is unquestionable, as atmospheric
water vapour density
increases with higher temperatures, the energy source is likewise augmented, same goes for cyclones.
Now, given that your hypothesis «
Increased water vapour = > clouds = > net cooling effect» is in conflict
with its own building blocks «cloudless nights are colder», maybe you ought to reconsider.
They claimed a CO2
increase would cause a temperature
increase and higher evaporation
with more
water vapour in the atmosphere.