This suggests the TSI reconstruction
with less variability is more accurate although both reconstructions are still used.
Strong short - term variability would mean that even in a warming trend there would be more cool years than for the same trend
with less variability, and vice-versa for cooling trends.
Good risk management translates into better performance over time
with less variability.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio had similar ending values as the S&P 500 but
with less variability between best and worst.
What remains is a warming trend
with less variability:
Not exact matches
«Corals from habitats
with more temperature
variability generally exhibit greater thermotolerance,» says Rivest, «but the effects of past pH
variability are
less clear.»
High reliability organisations — which have
less than their fair share of accidents — recognise that human
variability is a force to harness in averting errors, but they work hard to focus that
variability and are constantly preoccupied
with the possibility of failure
Just for the sake of illustration, though, here's one scenario where higher Holocene
variability could go along
with lower climate sensitivity: Suppose that some unknown stabilizing mechanism makes the real world
less sensitive to radiative forcing than our current models.
Indeed, since these cells expand exponentially
with a constant relative cell elongation rate (Willis et al, 2016), the Timer mechanism could potentially drive much more
variability than the other mechanisms yielding
less robust outcomes, as we have shown for roots.
As discussed in the appendix, even in periods
with overall good coverage in the observing system, large regions in Southern Hemisphere (SH) are not well sampled, and their contribution to global heat content
variability is
less certain.
While observational data from satellites show
less warming than predicted by most models, Santer and his co-authors demonstrate that the observed warming is consistent
with models including both human and natural forcings, but inconsistent
with models using only natural forcings and
variability.
We first demonstrate
less variability of global Pearson correlations
with respect to the two chosen networks using a sliding - window approach during WM task compared to rest; then we show that the macroscopic decrease in variations in correlations during a WM task is also well characterized by the combined effect of a reduced number of dominant CAPs, increased spatial consistency across CAPs, and increased fractional contributions of a few dominant CAPs.
Shah and Vaccarino had found that low frequency heart rate
variability is much
less (49 percent
less) in the twin
with PTSD.
Regarding carbohydrate source, a diet
with a low versus high glycemic index can be used to reduce HbA1c moderately (by ∼ 0.5 %).13 Case series and pilot studies reveal more substantial improvements in HbA1c and other benefits (
less hypoglycemia and reduced glycemic
variability)
with a very low — carbohydrate diet (VLCD).14 — 21 Although varying to some degree among studies, a VLCD is typically defined as ≤ 20 to 50 g per day of carbohydrates or ≤ 5 % to 10 % carbohydrates as a proportion of calories.22 — 24 In T1DM, small sample sizes and methodological issues limit the significance of VLCD benefits, and little is known about prevalence, practice, and sustainability.
This
variability is actually
less in people
with diabetes, than in those without.
This filter highlights the the fact that the series (which is an 11 year running average) has a significant recent warming uptick, and that During the same time this uptick occurred,
variability was significantly
less than normal when compare
with the rest of the series.
It is very plausible that the coupling of a steep warming trend
with less than normal
variability is simply due to chance (especially since not only does the uptick start at a historically low point, the magnitude itself is not that great.
Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be
less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined
with multi-centennial natural
variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»
The large decadal and local
variability of surface temperature may have interfered
with the detection of an underlying temperature trend (more «noise»
less «signal»).
A higher insulation would lead to a more La Nina - like state
with less ENSO
variability?
Just for the sake of illustration, though, here's one scenario where higher Holocene
variability could go along
with lower climate sensitivity: Suppose that some unknown stabilizing mechanism makes the real world
less sensitive to radiative forcing than our current models.
Up to 200 m,
less and
less influence of the
variability at ground level is seen and above 1,000 m, the hour by hour or even day by day
variability is completely gone,
with the exception of a small factor, which is the overall change caused by the seasons.
If a model comes along
with low frequency
variability that is
less polar concentrated and fits the century, or half - century, trend pattern better, that would be news.
C. UV light bands are in phase
with the solar cycle
with much more
variability, in contrast to visible light and near infrared (NIR) bands which are in anti phase
with the solar cycle
with much
LESS variability.
Then if they are pretty sure their method is right, it should hover around the uncertainty estimates they made and agree better
with the other sets when there is
less regional
variability.
manacker, it means that the proponents of natural
variability have to find something
with this exponential - like shape over the last century or so, or maybe it is a
less than quarter - wavelength section of some new multi-century several - degree oscillation that hasn't been noticed before -LRB-?)
In times when the oceans are warming, there could be several factors that influence this, each
with varying contributions based on natural and / or anthropogenic
variability: 1) Greater solar output 2)
Less aerosols in the atmosphere 3)
Less cloudiness (especially of a certain type) 4) Increased greenhouse gases
Rejects the null hypothesis that the latest observed 20 - yr and 30 - yr trend of near - surface temperature (ending in 1994) is part of natural
variability with a risk of
less than 2.5 % to 5 %
Climatic
variability in summer is projected to increase,
with southern Europe experiencing more heat,
less precipitation, and more frequent droughts — yet heavier rainstorms when it does rain.23 Northern Europe can expect more overall precipitation.21 Smog is also expected to rise — unless we reduce our use of fossil fuels.28, 29,30,31
Although there is
less warming at low latitudes than at high northern latitudes, there is also
less internal
variability at low latitudes, which results in a greater separation of the climate simulations
with and without anthropogenic forcings.
According to Neilson, the latest models suggest that parts of the US are experiencing longer - term precipitation patterns,
with less year - to - year
variability but several wet years in a row followed by several years that are drier than normal.
Moreover, 370 years of tropical cyclone data from the
Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main development region for landfalling U.S. hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated
with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate
variability.
The evidence tells us that was not the case (or only a small part of it), but in other centuries,
with less forcing (or
less persistent forcing), the relative contributions of internal and forced
variability may have been different, and may be different in the future.
Their arguments are few: • I haven't seen real change in Iowa, just the usual
variability (from an Iowa farmer) • there is disagreement among respected scientists, so I can take whatever position I want and run
with it, loudly and forcefully (a popular argument in all discussions, although scientists in the same position often become
less assertive about their position).
What is hard to believe is that
with the warming
less than predicted and the myriad possible explanations for it (including many references to natural
variability which had long been ignored or even ridiculed) that they would increase their certainty.
Modern continuous sampling (30 minute averages) in the same neighbourhood also shows large
variability, but the monthly averages more or
less follow the MLO measurements
with some bias:
The association of PSA - 2
with tropical
variability is
less clear than PSA - 1.
Somehow we are supposed to combine the 0 - 9 % for internal
variability with X % of sensitivity and get
less than 33 % or unlikely.
Certainly there is large natural
variability across the globe in sea temperature and pH. Does this make the oceans more predictable, or
less,
with regard to small changes in key fractions?
Background noise from natural
variability makes measurements
less than 12 years unreliable, even
with greater accuracy.
My money is on the models having «issues»
with properly characterizing natural
variability for periods much
less than 30 - years, but are getting the secular trends «about right» (possibly running «a bit hot», I'm still sticking
with my 2.5 °C / doubling number though).
Stephen Wilde (09:15:56): You replied
with respect to the lack of corralation between the AO and Sunspots, «A 50 year period is inadequate because of the
lesser cycles and short term chaotic
variability overlaying the longer term patterns.»
Having evolved in a region
with less climate
variability over both the years and the millennia, tropical species may harbor a
less diverse set of genes related to heat tolerance and similar traits.
Results show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is the leading mode of SAMOC - SST covariability, explaining approximately 85 %,
with the Atlantic Niño accounting for
less than 10 % of the
variability.
It has enhanced
variability, because averaging the reconstructions results in a redder time series (there is
less common variance between the reconstructions at the higher frequencies compared
with the lower frequencies, so the former averages out to leave a smoother curve) and the re-calibration is then more of a case of fitting a trend (over my calibration period 1881 - 1960) to the observed trend.»
Adolescents appear to cope
with less than recommended sleep but sleep
variability, which is very common in adolescents, is the main contributor to mood.
Can videotaped observations of mother — infant interactions in the NICU be coded using the PCERA
with newborns who are primarily
less than 40 weeks» gestational age, including having adequate reliability,
variability, and internal consistency?
Children
with ASD showed greater
variability in AR and used
less effective AR strategies compared to controls.