«There is a difference between what they are apparently doing - using a particular metric to test models - vs. what you appeared to imply: that other metrics that fail to
match with model predictions can then be used to discredit all models just because they don't match, not because of their importance to the predictions that matter.»
Ferdinand, given that I like your points regarding the shortness of various time series in the Arctic (notwithstanding Steve Bloom's good suggestion that we look at the big picture), how many more years of warming trends that continue in general
accordance with model predictions would it take to convince you?
* «Princeton physicist Will Happer's WSJ op - ed: «Global warming models are wrong again»: The former federal official calls climate's «observed response» to more CO2 «not in good
agreement with model predictions.»»
And you might recall that his March 27 Wall Street Journal op - ed «Global warming models are wrong again» called the climate's «observed response» to more CO2 «not in good agreement
with model predictions.»
The modelers are now saying that there is warming to come in the pipeline (given that temps have not kept up
with their model predictions.)
I conclude that the observed global aridity changes up to 2010 are consistent
with model predictions, which suggest severe and widespread droughts in the next 30 — 90 years over many land areas resulting from either decreased precipitation and / or increased evaporation.
Satellite observations have confirmed that the decrease in upward longwave radiation matches well
with model predictions, including in Harries 2001, Griggs 2004, and Chen 2007, the latter of which concluded:
Nor have Christy et al. corrected the serious statistical error in their 2007 International Journal of Climatology paper, «A comparison of tropical temperature trends
with model predictions,» a post-Wegman paper, but it speaks to their credibility.
... in every important case, the establishment response is to question the reliability of the disconfirming evidence and then to find other evidence that is consistent
with model predictions.
Consistent
with model predictions, satisfaction was positively related to level of rewards, and commitment was positively associated with satisfaction, negatively associated with alternative quality, and positively associated with investment size.