(And
with nominal yields close to record lows, the same could be said for corporate bonds.)
Not exact matches
Our model indicates that going forward, long - term
yields will likely be subject to three upward pressures: (1) Our forecasted increase in inflation will boost
nominal GDP growth; (2) As forward guidance is replaced by a data - dependent monetary tightening, volatility in short rates will increase; and (3) As the impact of QE on the Treasury market fades, long - term
yields will trend back to their historical link
with nominal GDP growth.
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow
yield; (6) Price / Book as well as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared
with the levels of (6) inflation; (7)
nominal 10 - year Treasury
yields; and (8) real interest rates.
Real
yields have moved similarly to
nominal yields over the same period,
with yields on 10 - year inflation - linked bonds currently around 3.5 per cent (Graph 52).
Even
with the prospect of a near - term easing of inflation and perhaps even some negative CPI inflation figures, the combination of strong real
yields and principal safety makes these a good harbor for investors who want to sleep nights without accepting untenably low
nominal yields (and the high associated durations - which I suspect many investors currently overlook).
I teamed it up
with DVY assuming a current
yield of 3.97 % and a dividend growth rate of 5.5 %
nominal, the same as for the S&P 500 index.
The 7 — 10 year range of the municipal bond market has kept pace
with U.S. Treasury bonds and
nominal yields remain comparable to U.S. Treasury bonds.
For example, a bond
with a face value of $ 1,000 that pays $ 100 per year has a
nominal yield or coupon rate of 10 %.
However, in terms of interest, the
nominal rate also contrasts
with the annual percentage rate (APR) and the annual percentage
yield (APY).
I collected additional data
with initial dividend
yields of 3 %, 4 % and 5 % and
nominal dividend growth rates of 6 %, 8 % and 10 % per year.
Here are my findings: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with an 8 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with an 8 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Here is a summary: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with an 8 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Condition E: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with a 10 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with a 10 % per year
nominal growth rate.
The breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the
yield of
nominal bonds and inflation - linked bonds
with similar maturities.
Think of 1979 - 82: by the time bond
yields were nearing their peak levels, bond managers were making money in
nominal terms
with rates rising because the income from the coupons was so high, and it set up the tremendous rally in bonds that would last for ~ 30 years or so.
First is the fundamental conflict of comparing
nominal bond
yields with real equity earnings
yields.
You should be able to construct a highly diversified portfolio
with an initial dividend
yield above 4 % that grows its dividend amount at least as fast as 5.5 % per year (
nominal).
I treat each investment as an initial dividend
yield with a fixed (
nominal) growth rate.
This is compared to
yields on MBonos (
nominal bonds), as measured by the S&P / Valmer Mexico Sovereign Bond Index, which moved up only 32 bps,
with the index returning 4.3 %, buoyed by its coupon carry.
As Jim Bianco has done, we can compare the year - over-year change in
nominal GDP
with the 5 - year Treasury
yield, which have historically tended to move together over time.
For example, a 10 - year TIPS
with a
yield of 1 percent at par
with inflation of 3 percent per year
yields a
nominal return of 4 percent a year and a real return of 1 percent.
Just whack it
with open market purchases or a tender, finance it
with low
yield guaranteed debt, and enjoy the reduction in
nominal debt outstanding.
Condition B: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with a 10 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Condition C: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with an 8 % per year
nominal growth rate.
Investment D: 6.1 %
yield with 4.0 % per year
nominal growth.
Investment B: 6.1 %
yield with 2.0 % per year
nominal growth.
Condition A: Investment A: 3.5 % initial
yield with an 8 % per year
nominal growth rate.
I allocated $ 50000 to dividend stocks
with an initial dividend
yield of 3.5 % and a
nominal dividend growth rate of 5 % per year.
Simply take out the
nominal PE ratios he uses and replace them
with real
yields.
With current 10 - and 20 - year
nominal Treasuries
yielding about 2.4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, the break - even inflation rates are about 2.0 percent for the 10 - year and 2.2 percent for the 20 - year.
An increase in marginal
yield corresponds to an increase in marginal risk, but that risk is not born evenly by investors: the ones
with bad setup end up
with a vacant property, while the ones
with good setup can access that higher
nominal yield.