Consequently whilst the temperature variations may be correlated to a greater or lesser extent
with radiative flux anomalies (< 7Wm - 2), they could be wholly or partially caused / explained by interannual variations in
Not so simple
with radiative fluxes, and few even try it that way, but they tell you the same thing.
Not exact matches
For this new idea to have merit, it had better have heat
fluxes at least on par
with the
radiative forcing from CO2.
However, it is the atmosphere
with increased greenhouse gases which makes the additional insulation and this is what effects the changing
radiative fluxes that we are talking about.
Spencer and Braswell (2010) used middle tropospheric temperature anomalies and although they did not consider any time lag they may have observed some feedback processes
with negligible time lag considering that the tropospheric temperature is better correlated to the
radiative flux than the surface air 15 temperature.
Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA
radiative fluxes are consistent
with independent global ocean heat - storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud
radiative forcing.
Physically, the extra GHG is causing a reduction in the total outgoing radiation at a certain T, and so the planet must warm to re-satisfy
radiative equilibrium
with the absorbed incoming stellar
flux.
But the troposphere can still warm
with an increased
radiative cooling term because it is also balanced by heating through latent heat release, subsidence, solar absorption, increased IR
flux from the surface, etc..
Energy
fluxes into the ocean are a combination of
radiative (LW + SW), sensible and latent (and a bunch of small terms associated
with rivers, icebergs, sea ice etc.).
In this way, the response of LW
fluxes (PR) and convection (CR) tend to spread the temperature response vertically from where forcings occur — not generally eliminating the effect of RF distribution over height, although in the case
with convection driven by differential
radiative heating within a layer, CR can to a first approximation evenly distribute a temperature response over such a layer.
(where the trend in net monochromatic
flux reverses) before reaching the ultimate saturation; if this situation came up, after each «pseudosaturation», the
radiative forcing can still be estimated
with a band - widenning effect outside the central region where the last «pseudosaturation» has taken effect, minus the contribution from whatever is happenning in the center (think in terms of positive and negative areas on the graph).
The variation of RF over a layer, increasing / decreasing
with height, means that there is a forced convergence / divergence of
radiative fluxes; the RF acting on a layer is equal to the difference between RF at the top and bottom of the layer and is positive / negative if the RF is greater / smaller at the top.
Within a convecting layer, convective
fluxes can also be part of the response, but where convection is bounded within a layer, the layer as a whole must respond
with radiation to
radiative forcings and feedbacks.)
Using the modtran model on line I get a
radiative forcing from 10 * atmospheric methane of 3.4 Watts / m2 (the difference in the instantaneous IR
flux out, labeled Iout, between cases
with and without 10x methane).
Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, which describes an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the radiative flux at the top of the atmospher
Radiative forcing is not to be confused
with cloud
radiative forcing, which describes an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the radiative flux at the top of the atmospher
radiative forcing, which describes an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the
radiative flux at the top of the atmospher
radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere.»
If CO2 were increased in a pulse of a few parts per million — the atmosphere warms rapidly and there may be a very temporary imbalance in
radiative flux at TOA before equilibrium is restored
with a warmer atmosphere.
In summary, the LES framework
with closed surface energy balance constrains the change in surface
fluxes and especially LHF to be consistent
with the
radiative forcing, which is important for obtaining realizable MBL and low - cloud responses to warming.
The decadal changes in TOA
flux associated
with ENSO and the PDO suggest that the longer term patterns associated
with changing SST over centuries to millennia are associated
with significant but unknowable changes in cloud
radiative forcing.
Climate shifts in the Pacific Ocean
with global implications for hydrology and
radiative flux feedbacks.
Hard data trends in
radiative flux — trends that are internally consistent, consistent across platforms and consistent
with surface observations of cloud in the Pacific — show strong warming in the SW and cooling in UV in the period in question.
This must happen in order to keep
radiative balance
with the Sun, because the area under the plot is approximately related to the outward
flux.
Cloud
radiative effects are studied in combination
with Earth Radiation Budget Experiment
fluxes.
Unforced natural cloud variability
with significant interannual and decadal changes in the
radiative flux.
Spectral considerations matter despite what idiots who ignore them argue
with their ridiculous sums of
radiative flux from the Sun and the Earth as taught in Universities and alarmist sites.
I disagree, the paper below shows that that even for deep midwinter Antarctica
with extremely low humidity, clear skies conditions, the
radiative flux from H2O vapour was more than twice that for CO2.
Adding a differential equation to account for the slowing of the
radiative flux would bring Tom's analysis in line
with the mainstream.
On the basis of the mean areal GHG
fluxes in our data set, the majority (79 %) of CO2 equivalents from reservoirs occurred as CH4,
with CO2 and N2O responsible for 17 % and 4 % of the
radiative forcing, respectively, over the 100 - year timespan.
As I pointed out in an earlier post, the weakness in Tom's argument is you have to deal
with a temperature gradient and the
radiative flux gradient which is ignored in LTE model.
Dubious, I googled «must be determined by the
radiative fluxes» and found a guest post by Willis Eschenbach at WUWT that questions that and other assertions, along
with many reasonable comments.
In all of these simple models, we assume the atmosphere to have a volume as fixed as a bathtub, we assume that the atmosphere / ocean system is a closed system, we assume that the incoming radiation from the Sun is constant, we assume no turbulence, we assume no viscosity, we assume
radiative equilibrium
with no feedback lag, we take no account of water vapor
flux assuming it to be constant, no change in albedo from changes in land use, glacier lengthening and shortening, no volcanic eruptions, no feedbacks from vegetation.
This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat
flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the sea - level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the sea - surface temperature variations... We find that the total
radiative forcing associated
with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated
with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, although without pointing to which one.
F., M. Köhler, J. D. Farrara and C. R. Mechoso, 2002: The impact of stratocumulus cloud
radiative properties on surface heat
fluxes simulated
with a general circulation model.
[*] You had said: «is based purely on observational evidence,
with no dependence on any climate model simulations... to obtain a direct measure of the overall climate response or feedback parameter... Measuring
radiative flux imbalances provides a direct measure of Y, and hence of S, unlike other ways of diagnosing climate sensitivity.»
If you took a bowl of hot soup and surrounded it on all sides
with ice, then the
radiative flux from the ice does not heat the soup at all.
So large
radiative flux numbers on average have not a lot to do
with long - term warming.
(iii) Our method of calculation for the overlap of H2O and CO2 absorption bands and our evaluation of the
radiative flux integrals are not identical
with theirs.
TABLE Summary of methane release scenarios compared
with present - day methane
fluxes and the
radiative impact of business - as - usual CO2 rise.
For example, Chase et al. (2000a) found that regional land - use change can cause significant climate effects in other regions through teleconnections, even
with a near - zero change in global averaged
radiative flux.
Everything else, movement of water
with different temperature up and down and back and forth is ocean dynamics and has got nothing to do
with the assumed increased downward
radiative flux from the atmosphere.
So to argue for the insignificance of the thermosphere to
radiative balance it is not sufficient to point to its small mass and number of molecules — one must accompany this
with physics showing for instance the mean free path of photons between interactions
with air molecules to be sufficiently long that the thermosphere will not significantly affect outgoing
flux.
Net UP IR in any wavelength interval from the Earth's surface in
radiative and convective equilibrium
with the atmosphere is the vector sum of UP and DOWN
fluxes in the opposing emission spectra.
Air temperature is a nonconservative, intensive variable whose local value depends not only upon the
radiative fluxes driven by thermalization of insolation, but upon upon the atmoshperic pressure, in accordance
with Boyle's law.
Spencer and Braswell (2010) used middle tropospheric temperature anomalies and although they did not consider any time lag they may have observed some feedback processes
with negligible time lag considering that the tropospheric temperature is better correlated to the
radiative flux than the surface air 15 temperature.
It is easy to confuse calculated TOA imbalance (or
radiative forcing), caused by increasing GHGs or other perturbations,
with actual TOA
flux, which must remain equal to F0 in the long term.
In other words, a bigger share of the 240 W / m 2 of the vertical energy transport will be transported by convective / advective means
with a stronger GHE, and a smaller share by
radiative means because the sum of convective vertical energy transport plus the diminished
radiative flux must add up to about 240 W / m 2 in order to balance the incoming shortwave radiation.
The conceptual picture of the GHE can be examined in terms of estimates of Z T254K, the» fuzziness» of the OLR, and a quantification of the vertical energy flow associated
with other forms than
radiative fluxes.
With this idealization the model climate, all statistics of the flow — temperatures, precipitation, clouds,
radiative fluxes — are functions of latitude (and height) only, and not longitude or time of year, making for a much simpler system to analyze.
The fact that the new B0 (skin temperature) changes
with the surface temperature and total optical depth, can seriously alter the convective
flux estimates of previous
radiative - convective model computations.
With this new study have we not reached the point at which the level of variation in
radiative flux approaches the level of variation in solar irradiance?
SoD, this is a long post so I'll finish
with this thought: why is
radiative flux equated
with heat transfer as the backradiation appears to be?