But,
with recent warming trends, those mosquitoes are now being reported at 1,240 meters in Costa Rica and 2,200 meters in Colombia.
Not exact matches
«This
trend to have even more dramatic numbers of overnight lower temperatures being exceedingly
warm is consistent
with what we have seen in
recent decades,» he said.
The
recent warming seems to correspond very well
with the anthopogenic CO2 increases but the explanations for the earlier two
trends are much less obvious.
Here we show that the
recent warming in this region is strongly associated
with a negative
trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous [natural] Rossby wave - train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth's rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific.
From his own research in chemical oceanography, along
with data from a number of
recent studies, Weber points out that some negative consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and
warming «are manifesting faster than previously predicted,» including ocean acidification and oxygen loss, which are expected to affect «a large fraction of marine species if current
trends continue unchecked.»
«If» the reference really was «all - engine» and if the proportions really matched Kent 2007, then half of «
recent»
trends could be affected,
with more
warming occurring prior to 1950.
411 SG Bolstrom, I am observing a particular
trend unlike the
recent past, whereas the Arctic air profiles are leaning more adiabatically during winter, this means a whole lot of confusion
with respect to temperature
trends, namely the high Upper Air should cool as the surface
warms, and the reverse, the Upper air
warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwards.
Some people think that the AMO is related to the atlantic thermohaline circulation, and that the shifting of heat North and South that is associated
with its variations could cause some of the
recent warming trend in the north Atlantic.
«The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in
recent years are a result of long - term
trends associated
with global
warming.
From the beginning, many of the complaints about Mann's work were more about how it was appropriated by others than the research itself; the first paper of his identifying a «hockey stick» pattern to temperatures over the last millennium, in 1999, was laced
with caveats in describing the distinct sharp
recent warming trend.
Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along
with observational data to show that the
recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall
trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.
It remains to be seen whether a future return to a consistently strongly negative A.O. (typically associated
with cooler temperatures and sequestered ice in the Arctic) would be sufficient to reverse the
trend of the
recent warming and ice decline.
In the end, one need not know
with a high degree of accuracy the intricacies of the climate's variability to show an increased
warming trend: 3 Furthermore, there are no models that exist that are able to match
recent observed
warming without taking rising CO2 levels into account, i.e. if radiative forcings from CO2 aren't taken into account, then models don't match hindcasting.
Current work1 has provided evidence of the increase in frequency and intensity of winter storms,
with the storm tracks shifting poleward, 2,3 but some areas have experienced a decrease in winter storm frequency.4 Although there are some indications of increased blocking (a large - scale pressure pattern
with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere, 5 the assessment and attribution of
trends in blocking remain an active research area.6 Some
recent research has provided insight into the connection of global
warming to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.7, 8
Fan We have had this discussion about borehole several times and as a result i had several email discussions
with the author.they confirm a global
warming trend since 1600 closely following cet.The
warming trend is not a
recent one.
Seems that the most
recent warming trend that begins just past the max trough of the Atlantic Multi-decadal lines up
with the
warming of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during two of the main multi-centenial
warm surges, the first one from about 1910 - 1940 and the 2nd stronger one from about 1970 - 2000.
Combine the satellite
trend with the surface observations and the umpteen non-temperature based records that reflect temperature change (from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent in spring & fall to sea level rise to stratospheric temps) and the evidence for
recent gradual
warming is, well, unequivocal.
Ding et al., 2014 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7499/full/nature13260.html «Here we show that the
recent warming in this region [northeastern Canada and Greenland] is strongly associated
with a negative
trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave - train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth's rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific.
One
recent study that examined the patterns in
warming and coral bleaching between 1985 and 2012 found that 97 percent of the sites it studied had
warming trends with 60 percent showing severe conditions.
«None of the [most
recent] 10 - year
trends is «statistically significant» but that's only because the uncertainties are so large — 10 years isn't long enough to determine the
warming trend with sufficient precision.
Unlike the continental U.S.,
with its abundance of micro and regional climates, the small island area of Great Britain affords less climate variety yet produces similar
warming / cooling
trends over the
recent past.
«Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric
warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric
warming in climate models and satellite data» «Robust comparison of climate models
with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on
recent temperature
trends» «Reconciling
warming trends» «Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the
recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «global
warming hiatus»»
A researcher that comes to the data compilations process
with a preconceived notion that the world is
warming may be eager to explain why the raw data shows no such temperature
trend, and quick to accept a rationale for adjusting older temperatures down and more
recent temperatures up.
Spatial
trend patterns differ for the
warm and cold extremes,
with the
warm extremes showing continuous positive
trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the
recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models.
ust sticking a
trend line through a
recent period (eg 1998 - present) and declare it has no
warming with no comparison to a prior period (or at least no mention of the confidence ranges).
More broadly, the panel examined other
recent research comparing the pronounced
warming trend over the last several decades
with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years.
But I'd bet that the increase in Arctic sea ice reported by Russian studies from the 1940s to the1970s had something to do
with the cooling
trend over those years, while the sea ice retreat since 1979 had something to do
with the more
recent warming trend there.
Correction: the second source doesn't imply this, they say it:» The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in
recent years are a result of long - term
trends associated
with global
warming.»
XBT's have been found to introduce a
warming bias so when the
warmer XBT data was combined
with the later Argo data, the most
recent trend showed exagerated cooling (more on that here).
Second link:» The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in
recent years are a result of long - term
trends associated
with global
warming.»
In fact, in the most
recent few decades, the rural sites have become slightly
warmer than the full data set, and show a
trend of -0.19 + / - 0.19 °C per century over the 1950 - 2010 time period, roughly consistent
with the
trends reported in the first method.
By contrast, all of the rural stations show a long term cooling
trend,
with some
recent warming.
However, if this was correct reasoning one could claim
with equal validity, using the same data set and time period, that there has been global
warming over the
recent 20 - year period, since the
trend is also not statistically significantly distinguishable from the
trend estimate over the time period since 1979 («global
warming» is the Null - hypothesis in this case), which itself is highly statistically significantly different from a Zero -
trend (RSS: 0.124 + / -0.067 deg.
According to last month's paper, it makes more sense to compare
recent warming trends with the 30 - year period from 1972 - 2001, when temperatures rose more rapidly.
Jesper Theilgaard, a meteorologist
with 40 years» experience and founder of website Climate Dissemination, said the
recent trends are outside previous
warming events.
In their paper «Exploring
recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking,» Barnes and colleagues used various meteorological definitions of «blocking» along
with various datasets of atmospheric conditions to assess whether or not there have been any
trends in the frequency of blocking events that could be tied to changes in global
warming and / or the declines in Arctic sea ice.
«The most important thing is that it shows that the rate of migration is lower than
recent and anticipated
warming,» said Dr. Oechel, «and it implies that if there's a continual
trend at a rate similar to this, species won't be able to keep up
with their new thermal zones as they move higher and higher.»
The new position statement is equivocal, beginning
with the observation that «the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on
recent and potential global temperature increases», and going on to say «Certain climate simulation models predict that the
warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS, and AMS.
By then, annual CO2 emissions from the US and EU will be somewhat reduced (my prediction, based on
recent trends), CO2 emissions from industrializing nations will be higher, alternative sources of energy will be cheaper; and we'll have 20 more years of experience
with the natural disasters that will recur dramatically
with or without global mean
warming or cooling.
There has not been shown to be a density variation of significance that correlates
with average temperature variation (e.g, the
recent high average temperature came from a small very hot area over the ocean and a small northern area, and more normal to even colder temperatures everywhere else, not global temperatures being
warmer), and Solar activity has been shown to correlate very well
with much of the long term (thousands of years time scale) global temperature
trend.
The chart depicts short - term
warming trend peaks that correlate well
with recent and prior El Niño
warming periods.
That's the only way you could prove from a purely statistical standpoint whether
recent trends were somehow inconsistent
with long - term
warming.
This is of course completely independent of critiques of the statistical work put forward by some, and the plain fact that
with no
trends in GCR, it can't be related to
recent warming.
The broader Hemispheric and regional picture shows that
warm events occurring during the two most
recent winters were much more extreme than the cold outbreaks and are consistent
with a long ‐ term and accelerating
warming trend.
Recent high profile heat waves, such as the one in Texas and Oklahoma in the summer of 2011, raise the question of whether these extreme events are related to the on - going global
warming trend, which has been attributed
with a high degree of confidence to human - made greenhouse gases (4).
Several analyses of ring width and ring density chronologies,
with otherwise well - established sensitivity to temperature, have shown that they do not emulate the general
warming trend evident in instrumental temperature records over
recent decades, although they do track the
warming that occurred during the early part of the 20th century and they continue to maintain a good correlation
with observed temperatures over the full instrumental period at the interannual time scale (Briffa et al., 2004; D'Arrigo, 2006).
The «pause» discussion continues (see RC for a summary of
recent coverage), which seems a bit silly to me, because it isn't really a «pause» at all, just a continued anthropogenically - forced
warming with some other (anthropogenic and natural) forcings and internal variability added on, such that the
trend is a little lower than most expected.
The
recent negative
trend in spring snow cover is underestimated by the CMIP5 (and CMIP3) models (Derksen and Brown, 2012), which is associated
with an underestimate of the boreal land surface
warming (Brutel - Vuilmet et al., 2013).