Moreover, the spring melt is now proceeding very rapidly
with sea ice extent already below last's year level on this date and identical to that of 2008.
The sea ice extent of September has a good correlation
with the sea ice extent of Jan to Apr of the same year and the extent of September 3 years ago.
Unfortunately, the RECOVERY form that FREEZING COLD anomaly seems to have come to an end,
with the sea ice extent STILL in the top 10 % of the last 10,000 years.
The decrease has been greatest during summer,
with sea ice extent reducing by around 12 % per decade since the satellite record began in 1979.
Similar problems can arise
with sea ice extent changes.
Even though the area of Antarctic ice has increased in recent years the volume has fallen so,
with sea ice extents, it isn't simply a question of deducting one increase from another decrease.
Not exact matches
Climate changes that began ~ 17,700 years ago included a sudden poleward shift in westerly winds encircling Antarctica
with corresponding changes in
sea ice extent, ocean circulation, and ventilation of the deep ocean.
This image shows a visualization of Arctic
sea ice cover on Sept. 12, 2013,
with a yellow line showing the 30 - year average minimum
extent.
«This year is the fourth lowest, and yet we haven't seen any major weather event or persistent weather pattern in the Arctic this summer that helped push the
extent lower as often happens,» said Walt Meier, a
sea ice scientist
with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
In contrast, the Scripps team opted to directly correlate albedo measurements made by NASA's CERES instrument data
with observations of
sea ice extent made by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM / I) radiometers aboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites.
A composite image shows how the
extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2016 compared
with a 30 - year average for the month (yellow line).
«Arctic
sea ice once again shows considerable melting:
With a minimum
extent of ca. 4.7 million square kilometres, Arctic
sea ice continues to retreat.»
I think that the GCMs do a good job for most of the planet, but independent work suggest local problems in the Arctic associated
with a misrepresentation of the
sea -
ice extent.
Consistent
with observed changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small
ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and
extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
The Arctic's
sea ice extent reached an all - time low in September 2012,
with the smallest recorded
extent since satellite observations began.
The global mean temperature rise of less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated
with a winter temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 % in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate change.
Comparing the dataset
with modern satellite records, the researchers find that Antarctic summer
sea ice extent was «surprisingly comparable» to what it is today.
The estimated DJFM Antarctic
sea ice extent climatology for the period 1897 — 1917,
with and without the inclusion of the Worby and Comiso offset (an offset between where satellites and human observers view the
sea ice edge), is plotted alongside time series of DJFM mean
sea ice extent calculated from HadISST2.2, NASA Team and NASA Bootstrap
sea ice datasets.
Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are compared
with measured
extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of
sea ice.
With increasingly less multi-season
ice, rebuilding previous
sea ice extent gets harder and harder.
February saw record low
sea ice extent,
with ice running 448,000 square miles below average.
Historically, a new low
sea ice extent (area) is set every five years,
with small recoveries in - between.
Observed decreases in arctic
sea ice extent have been shown to be inconsistent
with simulated internal variability, and consistent
with the simulated response to human influence, but SH
sea ice extent has not declined.
Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in
sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average
sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6],
with attendant risks for emperor penguins.
With that type of mild weather, it's not surprising that January also had a record low
sea ice extent for the month.
February saw record low
sea ice extent,
with ice running a significant 448,000 square miles below average.
With only 30 + year time series of
sea ice extent or volume, this is something difficult to do so we have to strive to construct longer time series that allow an assessment of natural variability at those times scales.
A smaller
ice sheet
extent might still respond
with the observed high rate of
sea level rise (5 m per century) if the warming is much more rapid than when
ice sheets were more extensive.
I think that the GCMs do a good job for most of the planet, but independent work suggest local problems in the Arctic associated
with a misrepresentation of the
sea -
ice extent.
Low maximum
sea ice extent also occurred over periods of some decades (e.g., mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth centuries, early fifteenth and late thirteenth centuries),
with absolute values in some cases as low as the twentieth century ones, but these periods were in no case as persistent as in the twentieth century. . .
You complain that there was no mention of Arctic
Sea Ice Extent in the Guardian article reporting exceptional warm temperatures up in the high Arctic yet I contrasted that report of exceptional warmth
with JAXA Arctic SIE values of recent days.
The lag between decreases in
sea ice extent during late summer and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation during other seasons (when the recent loss of
sea ice is much smaller) needs to be reconciled
with theory.
I don't know if it would be possible to force a climate model
with the observed
sea ice extent evolution (and an extrapolation) to get some information what this might produce.
«I think the natural variability component of Arctic
sea ice extent is in the process of bottoming out,
with a reversal to start within the next decade.
Global climate model projections (in CMIP3 at least) appear to underestimate
sea ice extent losses
with respect to observations, though this is not universally true for all models and some of them actually have ensemble spreads that are compatible
with PIOMAS
ice volume estimates and satellite observations of
sea ice extent.
# 51 — Dan, I respectfully disagree
with your comment that «these types of attempts are used to recreate the
extent of the
sea ice as best we can.»
Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are compared
with measured
extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of
sea ice.
Just to return to one of the suggested topics, Arctic
sea ice extent appears to have passed its minimum for this year
with a value higher than has recently been the case.
I'm sure this is true for Arctic
sea ice extent trends as well, even though Gavin said he was fine
with Judith's quoted paragraph pertaining to
sea ice.
Historically, a new low
sea ice extent (area) is set every five years,
with small recoveries in - between.
By contrast, true
Ice Ages drastically reshaped the planet, with much greater changes in global temperature, sea level, and ice exte
Ice Ages drastically reshaped the planet,
with much greater changes in global temperature,
sea level, and
ice exte
ice extent.
This second hypothesis is compatible
with reconstructions from dinocysts that suggest maximum
sea -
ice extent during the early Holocene.»
The paper, combining evidence of driftwood accumulation and beach formation in northern Greenland
with evidence of past
sea -
ice extent in parts of Canada, concludes that Arctic
sea ice appears to have retreated far more in some spans since the end of the last
ice age than it has in recent years.
Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of
sea ice thickness, draft,
extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement
with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern
sea ice models, though the parameter values chosen differ according to the model forcing used.
Hence, a «healthy»
sea -
ice state is a state
with both large volume or large
extent.
Predicting
sea ice extent is easy if you can mentally calculate wind variations, momentum,
sea currents, multi year
ice compression ratios, tidal synergy
with weather patterns, the AO, the temperature of
ice sea water and air, how cloudy it will be, salinity, pycnocline convection rates,
sea surface to air interface, CO2 exchange,
ice thickness distributions.....
Our results hence show that the observed evolution of Arctic
sea -
ice extent is consistent
with the claim that virtually certainly the impact of an anthropogenic climate change is observable in Arctic
sea ice already today.»
This finding is consistent
with the expected effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and
with other observed evidence of a changing climate such as reductions in Arctic
sea ice extent, melting permafrost, rising
sea levels, and increases in heavy downpours and heat waves.
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N.
With the decline in minimum extent and volume of sea - ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weat
With the decline in minimum
extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean,
with consequences for both climate and weat
with consequences for both climate and weather.
Francis & Hunter found that the downward long - wave radiation associated
with a retreating
sea -
ice extent is more important (a stronger effect) than cloud modulation of SW also associated
with the
sea -
ice extent.