Sentences with phrase «with the climate model projections of»

Not exact matches

The uncertainty associated with future climate projections linked to economic possibilities of what people will do is far larger than the uncertainty associated with physical climate models.

The researchers then used a mathematical model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with predictions about the likelihood of climate - related violence in the future.

On March 31 Muller testified in front of Congress and confirmed what mainstream climate scientists had been saying: Earth is warming in line with the projections of climate models.

The trends driven by earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much in line with the projections of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.

That could help with projections of climate models and hypotheses of broader changes to the rest of the ecosystem.

No climate model has ever been properly tested, which is what «validation» means, and their «projections» are nothing more than the opinions of «experts» with a conflict of interest, because they are paid to produce the models.

The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for making predictions of future climate change.

Having better economic models should increase confidence in projections of the effects of various policies, and greatly improve communication with climate modelers.

The paper prompted a MailOnline headline of, «Projections of global drought and flood may be flawed», while the Australian followed suit with, «Climate model projections on rain and drought wrong, study sProjections of global drought and flood may be flawed», while the Australian followed suit with, «Climate model projections on rain and drought wrong, study sprojections on rain and drought wrong, study says».

Known as a «co-benefit,» using state of the art models for human and natural systems, along with climate projections from the international community, the team was able for the first time to put a value on the global air pollution benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century.

Burke, E.J., S.J. Brown, and N. Christidis, 2006: Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the 21st century with the Hadley Centre climate model.

James Screen, a climate researcher at the University of Exeter, said in an email that while the findings are consistent with model projections and look more robust than the studies linking warming to the larger fluctuations of the jet stream, «I'd be cautious pinning the blame on Arctic warming.»

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

The eventual demise of the summer sea ice is a common feature of nearly every climate model projection (the exceptions are models with very inappropriate initial conditions).

Global climate model projections (in CMIP3 at least) appear to underestimate sea ice extent losses with respect to observations, though this is not universally true for all models and some of them actually have ensemble spreads that are compatible with PIOMAS ice volume estimates and satellite observations of sea ice extent.

When will «the use of the latest information on external influences on the climate system and adjusting for internal variability associated with ENSO» make its way into the projection model?

This data product will be useful in future studies, including as a benchmark for comparisons with climate - model simulations that attempt to account for both anthropogenic and natural factors in projections of future climate.

There are limited observational data to start with, insufficient testing of climate model simulations of extremes, and (so far) limited assessment of model projections.

We used new satellite records of fire incidence to create fire models which we then drove with a broad range of future climate model scenarios to get a sense of where the climate projections agreed on the sign of the change in fire frequency and where they did not.

No, it translates to climate models can not accurately represent natural climate variability, which is why they can't project future global temperature at even the 2 % confidence level: «we find that the continued warming stagnation of fifteen years, 1998 - 2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2 % confidence level» — vonStorch (2013)

John, On the «Presentation: Precautionary Principle...» thread you told me that you think it's «unhelpful to conflate discussion of climate - science issues like the modelling of SO2, about which none of us here know very much, with discussion of economic projections, where we can have a useful discussion.»

The Office will support the development of climate models and projections of future climate, facilitate cooperation between regions and countries, and promote knowledge exchange and capacity building with a particular focus on developing regions.

Penn State and the University of Hawaii both shared a grant of $ 770,000 for a research project called «Improved Projections of the Climate Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Combining Paleoclimate Proxy and Instrumental Observations with an Earth System Model».

The harmonization was designed to provide a continuous, consistent set of land use inputs for climate models from 1500 through 2100 with a smooth transition between historical data (1500 — 2005) and future projections (2005 — 2100)(see Hurtt et al. 2011).

This is all good news in light of Audubon's climate model projection that the species may lose 96 percent of its current summer range by 2080, with a limited chance of expansion.

• Representation of climate processes in models, especially feedbacks associated with clouds, oceans, sea ice and vegetation, in order to improve projections of rates and regional patterns of climate change.

The refusal in AR5 to accept the implications of the best observational evidence and of the over-estimation of warming by the climate models and accordingly to either: reject the ensemble of GCM projections; use projections from a subset of GCMs with ECS and TCR values fairly close to the best observational estimates; or scale all GCM projections to reflect those estimates is unscientific.

Citing the work of Dr. John Christy and Richard McNider at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which compared climate model projections with temperatures measured independently by satellites and weather balloons, he said «the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.»

(September 12, 2016)- A collaboration of university researchers, government agencies, and private sector groups released today a next - generation climate modeling dataset with improved local - scale climate projections covering the 21st century for a region from northern Mexico to southern Canada.

Heavy snowfall and snowstorm frequency have increased in many northern parts of the United States.2 The heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast United States are consistent with climate model projections.

Contrary to another claim made by Betts, we are conversant with that research and have recently contributed to it by showing that climate models do accommodate recent temperature trends when the phasing of natural internal variability is taken into account — as it must be in comparing a projection to a single outcome.

After these threats are identified for each resource, then the relative risk from natural - and human - caused climate change (estimated from the global climate model projections, but also the historical, paleo - record and worst case sequences of events) can be compared with other risks in order to adopt the optimal mitigation / adaptation strategy.

In this way the climate scientists can ensure that the projections are understood with their associated uncertainties, and the impacts / adaptation researchers can ensure that the climate scientists are aware of the parts of the climate system they are most sensitive to, providing a focus for climate model development efforts.

To the climate people, «projections» are future conditions (with certain probabilities) based on modeling of fundamental principles.

Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

> A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections compared with the TAR is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.

If the models show a lack of skill and need tuning with respect to predicting (in hindcast) even the current climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales (much less than CHANGES in climate statistics), they are not ready to be used as robust projection tools for the coming decades.

Again, superposition of this changing background climate on projections with high resolution models resolving the relevant process does give valuable insights of the possible changes in risks and vulnerability.

More definitive projections await simulations by more accurate climate models, perhaps with higher densities of computational points to provide greater spatial details of simulated climate processes.

We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution.

The last point of contention I have with the «consensus» position is that all of the projected climate catastrophes are based on climate model projections decades in the future.

These studies compare a particular climate policy scenario with a reference scenario corresponding to the model projection of business as usual (BAU)-- that is, a world in which the economy continues on its current course with carbon emissions unchecked.

Using CMIP5 simulations prescribed with historical greenhouse gas concentrations and future projections (representative concentration pathway 8.5), together with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecast) operational ocean reanalysis of the observed climate and tide - gauge records to verify the model results, the authors found that projected climate change will enhance El Niño - related sea level extremes.

The RCPs provide a unique set of data, particularly with respect to comprehensiveness and detail, as well as spatial scale of information for climate model projections.

The widespread trend of increasing heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense.13, 14,15,16 The patterns of the projected changes of precipitation do not contain the spatial details that characterize observed precipitation, especially in mountainous terrain, because the projections are averages from multiple models and because the effective resolution of global climate models is roughly 100 - 200 miles.

Confronted with obstinate refusal by nature to comply with climate model predictions / projections, she now has serious doubts and makes it very clear to the ragbag collection of looney warmista that, like it or not, they have a very uncomfortable reality to confront.

In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty - first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two - standard - deviation spread (− 1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»

I came to the conclusion that one of the major failures of the models & IPCC climate projections is to think that the «inside» part of the atmosphere is a constant heat transfer with no influence on the climate.

The Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program is a competitive grants program in the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Climate Program Office with the mission to enhance the United States» capability to understand and predict natural variability and changes in Earth's climate Climate Program Office with the mission to enhance the United States» capability to understand and predict natural variability and changes in Earth's climate climate system.

However, there remains uncertainty in the rate of sea ice loss, with the models that most accurately project historical sea ice trends currently suggesting nearly ice - free conditions sometime between 2021 and 2043 (median 2035).12 Uncertainty across all models stems from a combination of large differences in projections among different climate models, natural climate variability, and uncertainty about future rates of fossil fuel emissions.