Sentences with phrase «with uncertainty estimates»

Estimates are from spherical harmonic models CALS10k.1 b (red with bootstrap uncertainty estimates as dashed lines), CALS3k.4 (blue), CALS7K.2 (grey) and the VGP reconstruction DEFNBKE (black with uncertainty estimates as dashed lines).

A time series of global - average, bias - adjusted SSTs with all uncertainty estimates combined is shown in Figure 11.

With uncertainty estimates so everyone can sort the smoke from the mirrors.

The Berkeley data is plotted with uncertainties estimated via randomly subdividing the 179,928 scalpeled stations into 8 smaller sets, calculating global land averages for each of those, and then comparing the results using the «jackknife» statistical method.

Not exact matches

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.

It added that «the effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario.»

In a paper co-authored with colleagues at Stanford and the University of Chicago, Bloom estimates an increase in policy uncertainty between 2006 and 2011 might have shaved up to 2.3 percentage points off GDP growth.

The degree of auditor judgment related to areas in the financial statements that involved the application of significant judgment or estimation by management, including estimates with significant measurement uncertainty;

Furthermore, establishing a six - month prognosis is fraught with uncertainty even for those making prognostic estimates on a daily basis.

For all low risk women, bootstrapped estimates showed that planned birth in settings other than an obstetric unit was associated with cost savings and considerable stochastic uncertainty surrounding adverse perinatal outcomes.

But there is uncertainty associated with all the forecasts and some forecasters are trying to estimate the extent of that uncertainty, which in turn can be used to calculate probabilities of particular events (hung parliament, largest party, etc..)

Ms. Ferreras nonetheless acknowledged «many uncertainties» in the plan, including, most notably, unresolved labor contracts with nearly every one of the city's municipal labor unions, which could cost the city as much as $ 7 billion to settle, according to some estimates.

With only a few observations to feed into their calculations, the early estimates by scientists of an asteroid's future orbit have huge uncertainties.

Using a hierarchical model, the authors combine information from these various sources to obtain an ensemble estimate of current and future climate along with an associated measure of uncertainty.

The range of uncertainty is huge, with estimates of Europa's energy supply varying by orders of magnitude.

Their latest calculation, based on the oldest light that telescopes can detect, is 14.0 billion years with an uncertainty of just 500 million years — the tightest age constraint yet, and slightly older than the going estimate of around 13 billion years.

The measured differences in the mass - to - charge ratios are compatible with zero within the estimated uncertainties, in agreement with expectations for CPT symmetry.

However, there are large uncertainties in the estimate and it appears it is not compatible with the satellite «handshake» data transmitted from the aircraft, which is currently considered the most reliable source of information.

Riess's result has a mere 4.8 percent margin of error, compared with the huge twofold uncertainty in estimates made two decades ago.

Faced with these uncertainties, Levison and his group did choose somewhat conservatively from the available population estimates, picking a relatively small figure for the size of the Oort Cloud and a large one for the scattered disk.

Although there is a degree of uncertainty associated with the estimates, the results are comparable with previous studies.

Rough estimates for the cleanup operation across the US, with all its uncertainties, run at some $ 230 billion over 75 years.

In addition, a wide range of forcing schemes designed to span the approximate range of uncertainties associated with anthropogenic climate forcing estimates were generated and implemented in order to assess what differences in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering forcing scheme and other plausible schemes.

The estimated podoconiosis prevalence was associated with varying degrees of uncertainty.

The age of the Upper Cave (Zhoukoudian) remains is similarly problematic and has been a major source of uncertainty since their discovery in the 1930s, with estimates ranging from ∼ 33 - 10 ka [2], [4].

We find that our estimates and their associated uncertainties are comparable to the results of other methods, but with the additional benefit of being able to explore many more stellar parameters while using much less computation time.

Ideally, one would want to do a study across all these constraints with models that were capable of running all the important experiments — the LGM, historical period, 1 % increasing CO2 (to get the TCR), and 2xCO2 (for the model ECS)-- and build a multiply constrained estimate taking into account internal variability, forcing uncertainties, and model scope.

Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties.

We demonstrate that we will be able to improve our distance estimates for about one third of stars in spectroscopic surveys and to decrease log (age) uncertainties by about a factor of two for over 80 % of stars as compared to the uncertainties obtained without parallax priors using Gaia end - of - mission parallaxes consistently with spectrophotometry in isochrone fitting.

«We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»

With the timing of any U.S. policy changes still unclear, the bank said its base - case projection includes only the estimated impact of «prolonged and elevated trade policy uncertainty» on trade and investment in Canada and internationally.

Obtaining relevant information about this goal is best accomplished using a framework that integrates the investment solution with the risks that produce uncertainty in translating account balances into estimated future income.

I then used Price's predicted return methodology to estimate % annual return over next five years if you buy the share at 9.625 p. To estimate intrinsic value I reckon that given the risk and uncertainty with mining one should require a minimum 20 % return.

Such exercises also provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the reconstruction, which informs comparisons of recent instrumental changes with the longer - term reconstruction.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

In particular, our WMMP estimates (Fig. 4d) show a brief shift to wetter conditions pre-CIE, which 15 although uncertainties are large coincides with the first common appearance of the freshwater algae Pediastrum.

This is also a good recent presentation of the various estimates of climate sensitivity and of the amount of uncertainty associated with them — found by doing a Google image search on the terms:

Kevin McKinney, # 91, that claim that you quote is based on common estimates, with uncertainties, of emissions and its consequences.

Ideally, one would want to do a study across all these constraints with models that were capable of running all the important experiments — the LGM, historical period, 1 % increasing CO2 (to get the TCR), and 2xCO2 (for the model ECS)-- and build a multiply constrained estimate taking into account internal variability, forcing uncertainties, and model scope.

Trend estimates from the latest reanalyses agree with those based on station data within the accepted uncertainties of those estimates.

Such determinations require careful, quantitative analyses involving forcings estimates and reconstructions, and are fraught with limitations owing to uncertainties in both the forcing estimates and reconstructions — an excellent discussion is provided in this manuscript by Waple et al and references therein.

Interested folks should look up the publications available online at climateprediction.net, starting with Peter Stott & Jamie Kettleborough, Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty - first century temperature rise, Nature, 416, pp.719 - 723, 18 April 2002.

Indeed, the bizarre resulting claim by MM of anomalous 15th century warmth (which falls within the heart of the «Little Ice Age») is at odds with not only the MBH98 reconstruction, but, in fact the roughly dozen other estimates now published that agree with MBH98 within estimated uncertainties.

«The 2 \ sigma uncertainty in the global mean anomaly on a yearly basis are (with the current network of stations) is around 0.1 ºC in contrast that to the estimated uncertainty in the absolute temperature of about 0.5 ºC (Jones et al, 1999).»

The 2 uncertainty in the global mean anomaly on a yearly basis are (with the current network of stations) is around 0.1 ºC in contrast that to the estimated uncertainty in the absolute temperature of about 0.5 ºC (Jones et al, 1999).

One estimate of that error for the MSU 2 product (a weighted average of tropospheric + lower stratospheric trends) is that two different groups (UAH and RSS) come up with a range of tropical trends of 0.048 to 0.133 °C / decade — a much larger difference than the simple uncertainty in the trend.

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

It is neither an academic review, nor a plan for a new research programme Uncertainties attach to almost every aspect of the issue, yet policymakers are looking for clear guidance from scientists, hence authors have been asked to provide their best - estimates wherever possible, together with an assessment of the uUncertainties attach to almost every aspect of the issue, yet policymakers are looking for clear guidance from scientists, hence authors have been asked to provide their best - estimates wherever possible, together with an assessment of the uncertaintiesuncertainties.

The IPCC range, on the other hand, encompasses the overall uncertainty across a very large number of studies, using different methods all with their own potential biases and problems (e.g., resulting from biases in proxy data used as constraints on past temperature changes, etc.) There is a number of single studies on climate sensitivity that have statistical uncertainties as small as Cox et al., yet different best estimates — some higher than the classic 3 °C, some lower.