You plug in such information as your age, the number of years you want your retirement savings to last, the amount you have saved for retirement and how much you initially plan to withdraw, and the calculator then estimates the probability that your savings will last that long, assuming you increase your initial
withdrawal by inflation to maintain your purchasing power throughout retirement.
The 4 % rule says that you can withdraw 4 % of your invested balance in year one of retirement, increase that
withdrawal by inflation each year and never run out of money.
You would continue along this path, increasing the prior year's
withdrawal by inflation, regardless of how the market is doing and whether your portfolio is rising or falling.
Then you increase the dollar value of all subsequent annual
withdrawals by the inflation rate to maintain your purchasing power.
For example, when a finance professor at Spain's IESE Business School examined how a 90 % stocks - 10 % bonds portfolio would have performed over 86 rolling 30 - year periods between 1900 and 2014 following the 4 % rule — i.e., withdrawing 4 % initially and then subsequently boosting
withdrawals by the inflation rate — he found not only that the Buffett portfolio survived almost 98 % of the time, but that it had a significantly higher balance after 30 years than more traditional retirement portfolios with say, 50 % or 60 % invested in stocks.
Not exact matches
While investors are often concerned about catastrophic risks, failing to allocate enough to risky assets can lead investors to «fail slowly»
by not maintaining pace with
inflation or supporting
withdrawal rates.
The theory states that
by maintaining a steady
withdrawal rate of 4 percent — plus
inflation — during each year of your retirement, your savings should last for about 30 years.
Calculate this year's current
withdrawal amount
by adding 70 % of the
inflation - adjusted
withdrawal amount (from step 1) to 30 % of the fixed - percent amount (from step 2).
During retirement phase, investors» federal tax bracket is determined
by the
withdrawal amount together with $ 20,000
inflation - adjusted Social Security payment each year, subject to additional 5.2 % state tax.
They define initial
withdrawal rate as a percentage of portfolio balance at retirement, escalated
by inflation each year thereafter.
For example, go to a tool like T. Rowe Price's Retirement Income Calculator, plug in a $ 1 million portfolio and assume an initial 4 %, or $ 40,000,
withdrawal that will subsequently be adjusted
by the
inflation rate, and the calculator will estimate that there's roughly an 80 % chance that your nest egg will be able to sustain that level of
withdrawals for at least 30 years, or, if you retire at 65, until you reach age 95, a reasonable planning assumption given today's long lifespans.
After crunching the numbers, he concluded: «Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of portfolio longevity, a first - year
withdrawal of 4 %, followed
by inflation - adjusted
withdrawals in subsequent years, should be safe.»
If the author had taken 4 % and inflated that amount
by an
inflation factor of 3.5 % each year, you would find it almost tracks identical to the RMD
withdrawals.
Bengen determined that investors with a portfolio of 50 % stocks and 50 % bonds can safely withdraw 4 % in the first year, followed
by inflation - adjusted
withdrawals each succeeding year.
The downside risk is a 4 - year reduction of 5 %, which would be a
withdrawal rate of 3.8 % (plus
inflation), followed
by 4.0 % or more (plus
inflation).
I recommend that the cautious plan on a
withdrawal rate of 4.6 % to 5.1 % (plus
inflation) as indicated
by the sensitivity study.
In the graph below, the red / burgundy lines represent the yearly systematic
withdrawals of $ 60K, compounded
by the 2 % annual
inflation rate.
For example, if you follow a systematic
withdrawal system like the 4 % rule — i.e., draw 4 %, or $ 40,000, initially from a $ 1 million 60 % stocks - 40 % bonds portfolio and increase that amount each year for
inflation — reducing annual expenses
by a percentage point will significantly increase the probability that your nest egg will last 30 years or more.
April 2013
by John Sweeney Staying within or below a 4 % to 5 %
withdrawal rate (adjusted annually for
inflation) will decrease your risk of outliving your retirement savings.
The downside risk is a four year reduction of 5 %, which would be a
withdrawal rate of 3.8 % (plus
inflation), followed
by 4.0 % or more (plus
inflation).
In this case, the
withdrawal rate starts at 4 % of the total portfolio value but then increases
by the amount of
inflation each year.
If you had $ 100,000 in your RRSP at the end of your age 71 and started your RRIF
withdrawals at age 72, you could take $ 6,747 per year from your RRIF, indexed at 2 %
inflation, to draw your RRIF to 0
by age 90.
Historically, the rule of thumb has been to start with your «Year 1»
withdrawal rate and increase it
by the rate of
inflation.
If the rate of
inflation was 3 % during that year, you'd then increase your
withdrawal by $ 600 ($ 20,000 x 3 %) in your second year of retirement, for a total
withdrawal amount of $ 20,600.
Increasing the
withdrawal rate
by 0.1 % causes the balance to fall below the original balance (plus
inflation).
Increasing the
withdrawal rate
by 0.1 % causes the balance to fall below one half of the original balance (plus
inflation).
The year 30 balance falls below the original balance (plus
inflation) if you increase the
withdrawal rate
by 0.1 %.
In addition, continuing
withdrawal rates can safely exceed 5 % of the original balance (plus
inflation)
by optimizing allocations.
Assuming you want your nest egg to last at least 30 years, that typically means starting with an initial
withdrawal rate of 3 % to 4 % of assets — or $ 15,000 to $ 20,000 from a $ 500,000 nest egg — and then adjusting that dollar amount annually
by the
inflation rate to maintain purchasing power.
Even today's retirees can plan on
withdrawal rates of 5 % (plus
inflation)
by implementing a dividend blend strategy.
I was able to maintain a
withdrawal rate of 5.2 % of the original balance (plus adjustments for
inflation)
by including the Growth Kicker.
The 4 % Rule was born in the»90s when financial planner William P. Bengen concluded that someone who started
withdrawals between 1926 and 1976 could make the portfolio last for at least 30 years
by taking an initial 4 %
withdrawal and adjusting it for
inflation each year.
After the first year, you «throw away» the 4.5 % rule and just increase the dollar amount of your
withdrawals each year
by the prior year's
inflation rate.
Historical studies indicate that most investors should start
by limiting themselves to a 4 %
withdrawal rate that is subsequently adjusted for
inflation.
With a conservative 3 %
withdrawal rate (adjusted annually for
inflation), the Goodchilds could draw down their portfolio
by $ 22,700 in the first year.
The theory states that
by maintaining a steady
withdrawal rate of 4 percent — plus
inflation — during each year of your retirement, your savings should last for about 30 years.
What you'll find is if you start out with a relatively modest
withdrawal rate — say, an initial 3 % to 4 %
withdrawal that you then increase
by the
inflation rate each year to maintain purchasing power — there's a good chance (roughly 80 % or so) that your savings will last 30 or more years.
Even with potential annual
withdrawals from her RRSP,
by age 71, when she has to convert the RRSP to a Registered Retirement Income Fund, the portfolio, assuming 4 per cent annual growth after
inflation, will hold $ 541,000.
The remainder of your retirement living expenses will be covered
by annual,
inflation - adjusted
withdrawals of 4 % of your retirement savings.
While investors are often concerned about catastrophic risks, failing to allocate enough to risky assets can lead investors to «fail slowly»
by not maintaining pace with
inflation or supporting
withdrawal rates.
If there is a single year's worth of 3 %
inflation, the
withdrawal amount is multiplied
by 1.03.
Each year's
inflation adjustment multiplies the previous
withdrawal amount
by (1 + the latest
inflation rate).
I adjusted
withdrawals to match
inflation as measured
by CPI - U.
In other words, you've assumed that you need $ 48,000 per year in RRSP
withdrawals forever, but $ 48,000 today will be about $ 110,268
by your age 100 based on a 2 %
inflation rate.
In a simple empirical analysis, he showed how a 4 percent initial annual
withdrawal rate from the portfolio, subsequently increased
by the rate of
inflation (or decreased
by the rate of deflation), could be sustained for more than 30 years from an investment portfolio evenly and consistently allocated between stocks and bonds (50/50).
Thereafter, each year you'll make an annual
withdrawal of the same 4 percent, but you'd increase it
by the current annual rate of
inflation.
In each subsequent year, gradually increase your
withdrawals by multiplying the same 4 percent
by 1.03, allowing for a 3 - percent
inflation adjustment to keep up with the cost of living.