Not exact matches
CA Financial Planner William Bengen published a
study in 1994, showing a portfolio with a 4 %
withdrawal rate could blah, blah, blah.
A new
study published by Morningstar shows the updated US stock market performance since then (which includes 50 % decline
in 2003 and 57 % decline 2007 - 09) can now survive a 2.8 %
withdrawal rate over 30 years.
Some people tell me «oh, if you had just kept your mouth shut about the errors
in the safe
withdrawal rate studies, the Bogleheads Forum would still be at Morningstar and Microlepsis would still be posting and we would all be better off.
And if you like that one blog that does a lot of research on Safe
Withdrawal Rates and publishes case
studies for fellow FIRE enthusiasts and other fun personal finance content (wink, wink) please consider nominating it
in one (or all?)
Yes, dividends can get cut but at least they are tied to the real business fortunes as opposed to safe
withdrawal rate studies that are purely based on historical data, and thus probabilistic
in nature.
Financial planner Jonathan Guyton and software developer William Klinger proposed a somewhat similar, although far more complicated, system
in a research
study titled Decision Rules and Maximum Initial
Withdrawal Rates.
I made a sensitivity
study of fixed stock allocations and changes
in valuations
in terms of Safe
Withdrawal Rates.
I was writing about the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies 10 years before any of the Big Shots
in this field.
Do you think the world would be a better place or a worse place today if I had never put forward my famous post of May 13, 2002, pointing out the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies, Pink?
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site: Admit it, this all about you seeking some sort of glory and acclaim and not at all about errors
in withdrawal rate studies or investing strategies.
Around the time I wrote that article, I discovered the flaws
in the Old School retirement
studies that led to my launching of the New School of Safe
Withdrawal Rate Analysis.
See article
in the Wall Street Journal reporting that the numbers
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies are
in error.
You have engaged
in death threats and board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs because you want to cover up the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies, right?
Tailoring Your
Withdrawal Rate — Because there are many variables, I highly encourage you to conduct your own calculations or closely review detailed
studies like the one at ERN and avoid rules - of - thumb
in general.
«And the further reality is that if I * did * lack personal integrity, I could have made this all stop just by saying the meaningless sentence you want so desperately to hear: «I think the errors
in the traditional safe
withdrawal rate studies must be corrected by using Rob's analytically valid method.»
Juicy Excerpt: Say that you retired
in 1996 and used a 4 percent
withdrawal (the
withdrawal rate identified as «safe»
in the discredited
studies).
This
study attempts to quantify whether a 4 percent
withdrawal rate can still be considered as safe for U.S. retirees
in recent years when earnings valuations have been at historical highs and the dividend yield has been at historical lows.
-LSB-...] of my favorites: The Ultimate Guide to Safe
Withdrawal Rates — Part 1: Introduction is the first post
in a 23 - part series (not including reader case
studies!)
The
study does have limitations, and
in reality I am hopeful that retirees can obtain higher
withdrawal rates than I estimate.
This
study attempts to quantify whether a 4 %
withdrawal rate can still be considered as safe for U.S. retirees
in recent years when earnings valuations have been at historical highs and the dividend yield has been at historical lows.
I am hoping to make some improvements to my past work, such as allowing asset allocations and savings
rates to vary over time
in my «safe savings
rates» analysis, looking more at the role of international diversification
in retirement portfolios, accounting for taxes
in retirement
withdrawal studies, and investigating more about lifecycle or target - date funds for both the accumulation and retirement phases.
It's called The New Consensus That the Safe
Withdrawal Rate Studies Are
in Error Is the First Step Towards Far Bigger Discoveries.
on the internet by being the person who discovered the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate (SWR)
studies,
studies that millions of middle - class people have used to plan their retirements.
by Rob Bennett The Old School safe
withdrawal rate (SWR)
studies say that the SWR for retirees heavily invested
in stocks is 4 percent.
by Rob Bennett I gained my fame on the internet by being the person to discover the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies.
The Old School safe
withdrawal rate (SWR)
studies say that the SWR for retirees heavily invested
in stocks is 4 percent.
I put up my famous post pointing out the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies on the morning of May 13, 2002, Sensible.
In the context in which it appeared, however (that is, in a world in which most investors and indeed even most investing experts have shown a woeful lack of appreciation of the dangers of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies) I view this article as one that does more to add to the problem than to diminish i
In the context
in which it appeared, however (that is, in a world in which most investors and indeed even most investing experts have shown a woeful lack of appreciation of the dangers of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies) I view this article as one that does more to add to the problem than to diminish i
in which it appeared, however (that is,
in a world in which most investors and indeed even most investing experts have shown a woeful lack of appreciation of the dangers of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies) I view this article as one that does more to add to the problem than to diminish i
in a world
in which most investors and indeed even most investing experts have shown a woeful lack of appreciation of the dangers of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies) I view this article as one that does more to add to the problem than to diminish i
in which most investors and indeed even most investing experts have shown a woeful lack of appreciation of the dangers of the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies) I view this article as one that does more to add to the problem than to diminish it.
It is a question that has come up many times
in my 10 - year effort to get the errors
in the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate (SWR)
studies corrected.
Many of us are afraid to write about issue that matters most because it is scary to contemplate how much financial misery we have caused with our tolerance of the widespread promotion of Buy - and - Hold strategies (it is the Buy - and - Hold Model — rooted
in the long - discredited belief that markets are efficient — that is responsible for
studies that fail to take valuations into consideration when identifying safe
withdrawal rates).
I am the person who discovered the error
in the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies.
«I put up my famous post pointing out the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies on the morning of May 13, 2002, How many of the Old School
studies would you say have been corrected
in the 12 years since?»
I believe that what you are looking for is the e-mail
in which Wade expresses his concern to me about the threat that the Goons made to get him fired from his job for the «crime» of having publicly expressed his view that the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies need to be corrected now that there is a consensus
in this field that they get the numbers wildly wrong, Diversified.
Rob, the Fellow Who Took a Sneak Peak at the Happy Ending of the Story Before Even Daring to Put Forward HIs Post Pointing Out the Errors
in the Old School Safe
Withdrawal Rate Studies
Motley Fool, the site at which I posted my famous post of May 13, 2002, pointing out the errors
in the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies (SWRs) and which for years now has prohibited honest posting on SWRs (after John Greaney, the author of one of the discredited retirements...
For example,
in a university
study, it was found out that a Safe
Withdrawal Rate (SWR) of 4 % is sustainable from a diversified portfolio of roughly 60 % stocks and 40 % bonds.
I am the person who discovered the analytical errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies.
I've posted comments at the Free Money Finance blog on a number of occasions, helping my fellow community members come to a better understanding of the errors
in the Old School Safe
Withdrawal Rate Studies and explaining
in general why the discredited Passive Investing model for understanding how stocks work needs to be replaced with the Rational Model.
Business Week ran an article
in its recent Annual Retirement Guide issue arguing that the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies get the numbers all wrong — they are too pessimistic!
I learned of the errors
in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies by reading John Bogle's explanation of how Reversion to the Mean is an «Iron Law» of stock investing.
I wrote her some time back letting her know about the threats that were made by the Buy - and - Hold Mafia to silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau when he sought to get the errors
in the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies corrected.
Wade Pfau, an Associate Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy
Studies in Tokyo, wrote a comment to an earlier blog entry this morning that describes a research paper he has written (the paper is still
in its first draft) about the New School Safe
Withdrawal Rate concept that I developed with John Walter Russell (and with the help of hundreds of our fellow community members
in the Retire Early and Indexing discussion - board communities).
A collection of five questionnaires for parents to
rate their children on 9 temperament categories identified
in the New York Longitudinal
Study — activity level, regularity, adaptability, initial approach -
withdrawal, intensity, mood, persistence, sensory threshold and distractibility.
In this study published in the «Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology» in 2006, 143 adolescents were surveyed, seeking relationships between dysfunctional parent - child interactions — including withdrawal, anger and autonomy struggles as well as dependent social relationships — to determine if these strained relationships lead to increased rates of depressio
In this
study published
in the «Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology» in 2006, 143 adolescents were surveyed, seeking relationships between dysfunctional parent - child interactions — including withdrawal, anger and autonomy struggles as well as dependent social relationships — to determine if these strained relationships lead to increased rates of depressio
in the «Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology»
in 2006, 143 adolescents were surveyed, seeking relationships between dysfunctional parent - child interactions — including withdrawal, anger and autonomy struggles as well as dependent social relationships — to determine if these strained relationships lead to increased rates of depressio
in 2006, 143 adolescents were surveyed, seeking relationships between dysfunctional parent - child interactions — including
withdrawal, anger and autonomy struggles as well as dependent social relationships — to determine if these strained relationships lead to increased
rates of depression.
The findings of this
study showed that: (a) increasing
rates of early anxiety /
withdrawal were associated with an increased risk of later anxiety and depression; (b) positive parent — child attachment
in adolescence was associated with a decline
in the risk of later anxiety and depression; and (c) these associations persisted even after controlling for confounding factors.