«I put up my famous post pointing out the errors in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies on the morning of May 13, 2002, How many of the Old School studies would you say have been corrected in the 12 years since?»
I put up my famous post pointing out the errors in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies on the morning of May 13, 2002, Sensible.
Not exact matches
The 4 % safe
withdrawal rate (based
on the so - called Trinity University
study from 1998), is only one of several rough guidelines and has been widely criticized by other academics, as well as revisited by its original authors.
This calculation comes from the thorough Trinity
Study, which defines the safe
withdrawal rate based
on historical returns, that will allow your portfolio to never dry out.
And if you like that one blog that does a lot of research
on Safe
Withdrawal Rates and publishes case
studies for fellow FIRE enthusiasts and other fun personal finance content (wink, wink) please consider nominating it in one (or all?)
I want to make it clear that none of this post should be construed as a personal attack
on the authors of various Safe
Withdrawal Rate studies.
Yes, dividends can get cut but at least they are tied to the real business fortunes as opposed to safe
withdrawal rate studies that are purely based
on historical data, and thus probabilistic in nature.
The main problem with this and similar
studies is that they assume a mechanical annual adjustment of
withdrawals based
on the prior year's inflation
rate.
David Blanchett, the Head of Retirement Research at Morningstar, recently published this
study on the impact of guaranteed income
on safe
withdrawal rates from portfolios.
For example, the safe
withdrawal rate changes over time depending
on equity valuations and the safe
withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending
on your age and expectations about Social Security, see two case
studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here
on our blog.
We also discuss the value of an income annuity, and highlight a
study by Morningstar
on the impact of guaranteed income
on safe
withdrawal rates from portfolios.
I recommend that the cautious plan
on a
withdrawal rate of 4.6 % to 5.1 % (plus inflation) as indicated by the sensitivity
study.
* This
rate of return is very much dependent
on an individual investors risk tolerance, but ultimately, many financial planning
studies cite 4 % as an acceptable
withdrawal rate over a 30 year retirement with average inflation affecting recurring income needs.
You are right... all the
studies show a
withdrawal rate based
on index investing.
-LSB-...] uncle Bengen & the Trinity
Study guys, then settled to a safer 3.5 % after having consumed the Safe
Withdrawal Rate series
on -LSB-...]
Endless
studies have been made
on safe
withdrawal rates, including those originating the «4 % rule.»
Juicy Excerpt: I knew that the safe
withdrawal rate studies did not contain adjustments for the valuation level that applies
on the day the retirement begins.
on the internet by being the person who discovered the errors in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate (SWR)
studies,
studies that millions of middle - class people have used to plan their retirements.
by Rob Bennett I gained my fame
on the internet by being the person to discover the errors in the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies.
My good friend Mike Piper has written an article («Investing Based
on Market Valuation») at his Oblivious Investor blog exploring my finding that the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies get the numbers wildly wrong (promoted recently by my other good friend Todd Tresidder) and the research done by my other good friend Wade Pfau showing that Valuation - Informed Indexing has for the entire 140 years for which we have market data available to us provided far higher returns at greatly reduced risk.
Valuation - Informed Indexing # 127 by Rob Bennett My good friend Mike Piper has written an article («Investing Based
on Market Valuation») at his Oblivious Investor blog exploring my finding that the Old School safe
withdrawal rate studies get the numbers wildly -LSB-...]
The
study shows, based
on US data from 1926 to 1995 with a 75/25 stock / bond split, with inflation adjustment and a 30 year payout, that there is 98 % chance that the money will not be depleted at a 4 %
withdrawal rate.
Ataloss argued that the reason why I say that the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate (SWR)
studies are analytically invalid is that I don't approve of relying
on historical stock - return data to determine the SWR.
Motley Fool, the site at which I posted my famous post of May 13, 2002, pointing out the errors in the Old School safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies (SWRs) and which for years now has prohibited honest posting
on SWRs (after John Greaney, the author of one of the discredited retirements...
I thought that was a good way of pointing out how lame the arguments are that are used by defenders of retirement planning tools based
on the findings of conventional - methodology safe
withdrawal rate studies.
I've posted comments at the Free Money Finance blog
on a number of occasions, helping my fellow community members come to a better understanding of the errors in the Old School Safe
Withdrawal Rate Studies and explaining in general why the discredited Passive Investing model for understanding how stocks work needs to be replaced with the Rational Model.
There have been several
studies done
on quantify retirement
withdrawal rate and safety based
on historical market performance.
A collection of five questionnaires for parents to
rate their children
on 9 temperament categories identified in the New York Longitudinal
Study — activity level, regularity, adaptability, initial approach -
withdrawal, intensity, mood, persistence, sensory threshold and distractibility.