Back in the 1960s, they sometimes brought the surviving
withdrawal rates below that of 100 % commercial paper (i.e., money market funds).
The PLANNING REGION consists of
withdrawal rates below the Calculated Rate.
Our guidance for
withdrawal rates below can serve as a good starting point to determine if your expectations are realistic.
You might keep the initial
withdrawal rate below 4.0 % (plus inflation) and cap it at 5.0 % (plus inflation) in the first few years, depending upon how the markets behave.
(For the record, my wife and I are targeting
a withdrawal rate below 3.5 %, due in part to this excellent series from EarlyRetirementNow.
Not exact matches
And then, well, guess what, then you are way
below 4 % safe
withdrawal rate.
What initial retirement portfolio
withdrawal rate is sustainable over long horizons when, as currently, bond yields are well
below and stock market valuations well above historical averages?
They measure long - term risk as the probability that portfolio value is
below its initial value after ten years from 10,000 Monte ‐ Carlo simulations based on expected asset class returns, pairwise asset return correlations, inflation, investment alpha (baseline constant 1 % annually) and
withdrawals (baseline approximately 5 % annual real
rate).
The
withdrawal rate never falls
below 4 %.
The (real)
withdrawal rate never falls
below 4 %.
Given these rules, and given the fact that the account's 0.05 %
rate is
below average, the best approach is to deposit the minimum required to earn the bonus while avoiding
withdrawals entirely.
I confess this otherwise frugal writer is enjoying his new tangible good and is not concerned about the resulting dent to his portfolio: the amount is well
below the «safe» 4 % annual
withdrawal rate I've blogged about.
For other families, the
withdrawal rate increases rapidly when personal retirement account assets fall
below $ 50,000.
Withdrawals below the Calculated
Rate are in the PLANNING REGION.
But with interest
rates so low and investment returns projected to come in much
below those of years past, research by retirement experts like The American College's Wade Pfau, Texas Tech's Michael Finke and Morningstar's David Blanchett suggests that retirees may have to go to an initial
withdrawal of 3 %, if not less, to avoid running out of money too soon.
In the graph
below, the red / burgundy lines represent the yearly systematic
withdrawals of $ 60K, compounded by the 2 % annual inflation
rate.
For income, I'm targeting a 3 %
withdrawal rate (vs. the historical «rule of thumb» of 4 %) from our investments due to my belief that equities will have a
below average return in the coming decades.
Set forth
below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site: Admit it, this all about you seeking some sort of glory and acclaim and not at all about errors in
withdrawal rate studies or investing strategies.
However, in a Fixed
Rate Cash ISA there will be a
withdrawal charge depending on the term taken, as shown
below.
April 2013 by John Sweeney Staying within or
below a 4 % to 5 %
withdrawal rate (adjusted annually for inflation) will decrease your risk of outliving your retirement savings.
Whenever P / E10 is 20, the optimal stock allocation with commercial paper is 80 % under constraint B. Only when we allow the final balance to fall all of the way to zero does the Safe
Withdrawal Rate allocation fall
below 80 %.
Below it will be argued that there is no probability, much less guarantee, that tax
rates on
withdrawal will be lower.
The table
below contains the current tax
rates applicable on VCA
withdrawals where the amount withdrawn falls within the respective
withdrawal values and the contributions are less than 5 years old:
Then I added a whopping $ 57,000 in RRSP
withdrawals so that we both would report income of just
below $ 106,543 (2016 marginal tax
rates).
(4) Huge risk that doesn't match the
rate of return: I'll explain more
below, but the tax drag, cash drag, and
withdrawal fee all reduces your
rate of return by so much that I can't see anyway that your risk equals the
rate of return.
The table
below shows the maximum
withdrawal rate for each of the 10, 20, and 30 - year time horizons based on the worst period for each IFA Index Portfolio that corresponds with their average exposure over that time horizon.
So in today's current context with low returns, low interest
rates and slightly higher inflation you should consider lowering your
withdrawal amount
below 4 %.
The table
below shows the start dates for the worst 10, 20, and 30 year periods for 10 of our IFA Index Portfolios as well as the maximum
withdrawals rates that left investors with the same amount of principal at retirement and at the end of their life.
3 percent is
below almost all of the safe
withdrawal rates discussed in various blogs and publications, and I should not need to assume crazy risks to get this yield in my account.
Unsurprisingly, the 60 - year
withdrawal rates are significantly
below the 30 - year
rates.
There are only a few occasions where the 30 - year SWR drops
below 4 %, but a 60 - year retirement horizon has a few stubbornly long episodes with 3.5 - 4 %
withdrawal rates.
The reason: You can deduct today's retirement account contributions at your marginal tax
rate, which could be 22 % or higher, but in retirement your
withdrawals might be your only income — and thus you'll probably pay taxes at an average
rate that's well
below 22 %.
Increasing the
withdrawal rate by 0.1 % causes the balance to fall
below the original balance (plus inflation).
At P / E10 = 14, with an 80 % to 100 % stock allocation, the traditional Year 30 Safe
Withdrawal Rate is
below 6 %.
Increasing the
withdrawal rate by 0.1 % causes the balance to fall
below one half of the original balance (plus inflation).
The year 30 balance falls
below the original balance (plus inflation) if you increase the
withdrawal rate by 0.1 %.
The 4 % rule may not be optimal as the actual
withdrawal rates which could have sustained a 30 year retirement have shown a large variation as shown in the figure
below.
You can deduct.25 % off all the auto loan and personal loan
rates below by signing up for automatic
withdrawal.
The subsequent
withdrawal rates fell
below 4 % of the original balance at Year 20.
Set forth
below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site: There has never been a 30 year period in which a 4 %
withdrawal rate has not worked.
The Safe
Withdrawal Rate was well
below 2 % at the peak of the bubble unless we rely on the 1941 - 1950 projection (which requires us to make the greatest extrapolation).
HSWR50VTn Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates y versus x, the Percentage Earnings Yield 100E10 / P equation: 1) y = 0.8572 x +2.244 plus and minus 2.0 % (for P / E10 of 17 and
below) 2) R - squared = 0.7049.
Minimum mandatory
withdrawal rates between 65 and 71 range from 3.85 % to 5 %, so if your RRSP account is
below $ 50,000 or you need the income anyway, you might as well convert your whole RRSP to a RRIF rather than getting fancy.
After all, as the chart
below indicates (from Spending Flexibility and Safe
Withdrawal Rates by Michael Finke, Wade Pfau, and Duncan Williams from the March 2012 issue of the Journal of Financial Planning, and based on the Social Security Administration period life table for 2007), the probability of a joint life expectancy of 30 years for a 65 - year - old couple (to age 95) is already as low as 18 %.