The 10 - year historical surviving
withdrawal rate DOES depend upon the order of returns.
Apologies if I'm missing the obvious, looking at the formula: Retirement Number = Gross Earnings / Initial
Withdrawal Rate Does this take into the account of time you hope to be retired.
Withdrawal rates do not automatically apply to every portfolio following a general strategy.
Not exact matches
While the value of underlying subaccounts of variable annuities fell through the floor like everything else in the market in 2008, the guaranteed income
withdrawal rate (not to be confused with the
rate of return of the investment portfolio)
did not.
Using the S&P 500 dividend yield (~ 2.2 %) or 10 - year treasury yield (~ 2.85 %) as a safe
withdrawal rate will ensure that you
do not run out of money in retirement.
When we shift our retirement
withdrawal rate to a level which
does not touch principal, we suddenly start changing the way we view money.
I don't think I will «need» the money so a low
withdrawal rate will be fine.
Those who experienced big bear markets early in retirement, appear to be
doing okay with 4.5 %
withdrawal rate.
When you think about rules of thumb around
withdrawal rates, right, how much can I withdraw from my portfolio, even the research that we
do here at Vanguard, it's all predicated upon a balanced portfolio, anywhere between 40 % — 60 % in a globally diversified equity portfolio.
Remember, the safest
withdrawal rate in retirement
does not touch principal.
When I retire, I
do plan to increase my allocation of TIPS and dividend paying stocks just to support my
withdrawal rate.
I mean you should make the adjustments to your safe
withdrawal rate, but you should
do it in a way that is consistent.
Again, you don't have to... I mean, obviously you probably want to understand qualitatively what is behind that, and it's basically what you would
do is, that if equities are very expensive, you would lower your
withdrawals, and then as equities get less expensive, you can increase your
withdrawal rate.
What that would
do is, imagine you start with an initial
withdrawal rate, say 3.5 % and then equities take a nosedive.
Something like the 4 % rule, then you can again look at this, people call it the unconditional mean, the unconditional safe
withdrawal rate, because I don't know what will be the conditions at that point.
Doing the SWR exercise for a portfolio of Peer Street loans will require some «hacking» in my Safe
Withdrawal Rate Google Sheet!
Suffering a very low
withdrawal rate throughout retirement to help maximize portfolio's terminal value doesn't make sense to me.
As I pointed out in Part 17 of the Safe
Withdrawal Series, a safe withdrawal rate calculation has to be a highly customized affair and that's what we'll do to
Withdrawal Series, a safe
withdrawal rate calculation has to be a highly customized affair and that's what we'll do to
withdrawal rate calculation has to be a highly customized affair and that's what we'll
do today again.
One thing I didn't go into is finessing things like
withdrawal rates.
And if you like that one blog that
does a lot of research on Safe
Withdrawal Rates and publishes case studies for fellow FIRE enthusiasts and other fun personal finance content (wink, wink) please consider nominating it in one (or all?)
With a 3 or 4 %
withdrawal rate that
does not really add up,
If you had originally planned withdrawing 4 % a year, temporarily lowering this to a smaller
withdrawal rate would help mitigate the damage
done by a market crash (assuming you have to sell assets at depressed prices).
«We are confident that the higher
withdrawal rate in the surgical arm
did not affect our findings,» he said.
When you
do your initial planning, start with something close to the Safe
Withdrawal Rate.
A
withdrawal rate of 4.7 % produced no failures (but 4.8 %
did).
Part of my rationale had to
do with previous studies that examined how Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates were related to (initial) dividend yields.
As a possible addendum,
do you know of a place where you can find early
withdrawal penalties published alongside
rates for 5 year CD's?
These funds are separate from our drawdown strategy and
do not factor into our safe
withdrawal rate as they are ear - marked for a specific purpose over a fixed period.
And, in fact, if you go to a lower initial
withdrawal rate, say, 3.5 % or 3 %, you see much the same effect — that is, very high stock allocations don't boost the probability that your savings will last and may even slightly reduce the odds (although, of course, the chances of one's nest egg lasting at least 30 years are higher all around at lower
withdrawal rates).
As with all hypotheticals, this example
does not represent the performance of any specific investment and the earnings would be subject to taxation upon
withdrawal at then - current
rates and subject to penalties for early
withdrawal.
But if you really want to make sure you don't outlive your nest egg, you'll want to focus even more on choosing an appropriate
withdrawal rate.
BMO also offers a 1 %
rate on a savings TFSA and doesn't levy any administration fee,
withdrawal fee or transfer fee.
As long as you keep your
withdrawal rate reasonable, you don't need to load up heavily on stocks to avoid outliving your savings.
For example, David Blanchett of Morningstar and Wade Pfau and Michael Finke of The American College of Financial Services have suggested that retirees who don't want to outlive their savings may need to scale back their initial
withdrawal rate to 3 % or so.
If you're withdrawing the money from an IRA,
do you factor in your marginal tax
rate to arrive at the 4 %
withdrawal?
I think it is only human nature to curtail spending a little when you see the economy go into recession and your investments suffer, even if the safe
withdrawal rate says it doesn't matter.
To
do that, you'll want to go through a rigorous retirement - income planning process that starts with thinking seriously about how you'll live in retirement and then moves on to such tasks as making a retirement budget; assessing different strategies for claiming Social Security benefits; considering whether you want more guaranteed income than Social Security alone offers (which is where an annuity might play a role); and, settling on a
withdrawal rate that has a reasonable shot at making your savings last as long as you
do.
In analyzing the benefits of a possible Roth conversion, the proper tax
rate comparison is between the lowest tax
rate that may apply to a partial conversion and the highest tax
rate that will apply to
withdrawals if you don't convert.
Yet you can
do a partial conversion that's taxed at 25 %, and also eliminates
withdrawal income that would be taxed at 25 %, eliminating the disadvantageous spread in tax
rates.
At high valuations (high P / E10 and low 100E10 / P) and a 2 %
withdrawal rate entry, there were a few instances which
did not make it to year 30.
If you find yourself unable to resist an attractive long - term
rate, only
do so if the bank or credit union's early -
withdrawal penalty is reasonable.
A lot of the scenarios I've seen use the marginal tax
rate only when calculating taxes on rrsp
withdrawals which I don't think applies to everyone, especially the marjority of us who don't have a pension plan.
Hi John - A question I've been thinking about and meaning to ask about for awhile -[what]
do you think about the effect of taxes on HSWR [Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates]?
The other thing to
do is begin to even out the amount in your RRSPs if there's a big disparity — that way when you begin withdrawing from your RRSPs at a standard 4 %
withdrawal rate in retirement, the higher earner won't end up with an outsized RRSP and get bumped up into a higher tax bracket, costing the couple lots of money in taxes.
If you don't convert, your
withdrawals will be taxed at more than one
rate.
It has nothing to
do with a safe
withdrawal rate though!
I'll want to ensure my money
does not run out before I am worm food, so I'll shoot for a «safe
withdrawal rate,» usually expressed as a percentage of the nest egg.
I didn't want to highlight the RRIF age because it still doesn't change the central point that
withdrawals are taxed as regular income at one's marginal
rate.
Second, by delaying drawdowns from your portfolio you can bump up your
withdrawal rate when you
do retire.
Generally, such measures don't significantly change the fact that you pay income tax on RRSP
withdrawals at your marginal
rate — these measures raise the minimum you can take out without attracting tax, but most
do nothing at the margin.