Sentences with phrase «within uncertainty»

[15] A crude revised central estimate is 3.4 °C, being the median ECS of the 7 models (CGCM3.1, HadCM3, CanESM2, IPSL - CM5A, MRI - CGCM3, NCAR - CAM5, NorESM1 - M) whose seasonal variability lies within the uncertainty range for the observational estimate, after substituting the Brient & Schneider consistency assessment for the 4 models where if differs radically.

Ken, No, I'm just regressing the Historical (All - forcings) forcing time series on the forcing time series for the constituent individual forcings.If they have been correctly included in Historical forcing, the coefficients should contain one within their uncertainty ranges, as they do except for land use forcing where they are consistent with zero.

The fact is that within the uncertainty we've got, all sorts of combinations of particular forcings and climate sensitivity will give a similarly good fit.

As long as the temperatures are within the uncertainty range of the warming trend, there is simply no reason to say, that the warming trend has stopped.

Within this uncertainty range, this reconstruction suggests that the pronounced decline in summer Arctic sea ice cover that began in the late twentieth century is unprecedented in both magnitude and duration when compared with the range of variability of the previous roughly 1,450 years.

«Lag correlations from 20 — 10 kyr ago suggest that the modelled global temperature lags CO2 concentration by 120 yr, which is within the uncertainty range of the proxy - based lag.»

Rates computed using alternative approaches over the longest common interval (1900 — 2003) agree with this estimate within the uncertainty.

On the solar subject, if you work out how much the TSI trend would have to be wrong for solar plus the terrestrial amplification found by Prof. Nir Shaviv http://sciencebits.com/calorimeter to be able to account for global warming, the answer is, not very much at all, and well within the uncertainty of TSI measurement.

As it had turned out that even large - scale features of the model are rather sensitive to changes in the data set, particularly for the earlier part the model, the final model was obtained as the average of 2000 models where data and ages were varied within their uncertainty estimates and bootstraps on the final data sets were performed (hence version number 1b).

The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 nonoverlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 — 2008 trend (− 0.05 ° to 0.05 °C decade — 1).

Observed changes in the top - of - atmosphere radiation and upper - ocean heating consistent within uncertainty.

Lewis's estimate for this budget, he says, lies «well within the uncertainty range» of the IPCC, meaning it's not outside their estimates.

Willis — I suppose you can make the «within the uncertainty range» argument, but that still suggests that one of the best values of either the UAH trend or the Watts et al. trend is pretty far off.

Differences in variations in ocean heating rate and satellite net TOA flux are well within the uncertainty of the measurements and, therefore, cast doubt on the argument for «missing energy» in the climate system.

When accounting for actual GHG emissions, the IPCC average «Best» model projection of 0.2 °C per decade is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08 °C) per decade since 1990.

The first figure shows that the observations, including the last 15 years fall well within the uncertainty of the IPCC projections for the «business as usual» scenario A1B.

I acknowledge that 2011 fell within the uncertainty range of the model estimates, althought the range was 0.8 C wide.

In AR4 these mostly offset each other, but AR5 does have central estimates with wide uncertainties that the forcing really is changing faster than that from CO2 alone while the AR4 offsetting is still comfortably within the uncertainty too.

Regarding variability, the ISPM fails to mention that the IPCC found that the larger «natural climatic variability» is almost all in the direction of cooler temperatures, relative to «previous estimations», for the past millenium: «The additional variability shown in some new studies [since the Third Assesment Report] implies mainly cooler temperatures (predominantly in the 12th to 14th, 17th and 19th centuries), and only one new reconstruction suggests slightly warmer conditions (in the 11th century, but well within the uncertainty range indicated in the TAR).»

Statistics Of Loeb's «Observed Changes In Top - Of - The - Atmosphere Radiation And Upper - Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty»

There is also the separate problem that the claims of increasing temperatures are well within uncertainty and thus not reliably distinguishable, though this does not deter indefensible PR claims by NOAA and NaSA.

To elaborate slightly on my above point, the cause / effect relationship between CO2 and temperature derived from data spanning more than 400 million years, and operating within uncertainty margins that can be quantified with reasonable probability requires the existence of a prominent CO2 signal in the record of the past half century.

Ignoring the discrepancy or waving it away, is not defensible unless the discrepancy is small, or within the uncertainty of the observations.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that an ensemble of climate model projections is fully contained WITHIN the uncertainty envelope of traditional stochastic methods using historical data, including the Hurst phenomena... the Hurst phenomena (1951) describes the large and long excursions of natural events above and below their mean, as opposed to random processes which do not exhibit such behavior.

January 24, 2012 by Briggs6 Comments on Statistics Of Loeb's «Observed Changes In Top - Of - The - Atmosphere Radiation And Upper - Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty» Statistics

1 % might be a good guess, so VP's value is within the uncertainty and, as a bonus, gives reasonable values as you asymptote to pre-industrial times.

on Statistics Of Loeb's «Observed Changes In Top - Of - The - Atmosphere Radiation And Upper - Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty»

This is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08 °C) per decade since 1990, and very close to the central estimate.

This can also be seen in the final figure from Morice et al 2012 (detail here), in which HadCRUT4 is at the top of the pack over recent years, although GISTEMP and NCDC both lie within the uncertainty range.

2015 was about 0.12 C warmer than 2014 (GISTEMP), which still leaves it below the model mean, but well within the uncertainty.

«The 10 model simulations (a total of 700 years of simulation) possess 17 non-overlapping decades with trends in ENSO - adjusted global mean temperature within the uncertainty range of the observed 1999 - 2008 trend -LRB--0.05 to +0.05 C per decade).»

«Observed changes in top - of - the - atmosphere radiation and upper - ocean heating consistent within uncertainty,» N.G. Loeb, et al, Nature Geosciences 1/22/12 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1375.html

The same approach for 2015 gives 287.8 ± 0.5 K, and for 2014 it is 287.7 ± 0.5 K. All of which appear to be the same within the uncertainty.

The two agencies use slightly different methods, so they have different readings for the difference between 2014 and the previous warmest year, 2010, with N.O.A.A. putting it at 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit (0.04 degrees Celsius), while NASA got 0.036 degrees (0.02 Celsius)-- which this analysis says is well «within uncertainty of measurement.»

Warmer periods prior to the 20th century are within the uncertainty range given in the TAR.»

Am I the only one that finds odd that the observations have to be within the uncertainty of the models?

The details differ (mostly within the uncertainty bounds given by Mann et al, so the difference is not significant), but all published reconstructions share the same basic features: they show relatively warm medieval times, a cooling by a few tenths of a degree Celsius after that, and a rapid warming since the 19th Century.

If you want to do a more precise analysis, fine — you'd need to properly include the uncertainty ranges and you would come to the same conclusion as me — as far as one can tell within uncertainty, the non-CO2 anthropogenic forcings approximately balance.

I can determine the standard uncertainty for all the measured variables from statistics It is falsifiable — i can move a body at a certain velocity for a certain time and measure the traveled distance If the traveled distance does not fit with calculated distance within the uncertainty calculated by using the international standard Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement the model might be wrong.

Global mean temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.

Our measured relativistic spin precession rate of per year (68 % confidence level) is consistent with that predicted by general relativity within an uncertainty of 13 %.

«The three papers come to perhaps different numbers, but we're all within uncertainty ranges, well within them, and lends confidence to the statement that there was a significant human influence on the amount of precipitation that was produced by Hurricane Harvey,» he said.

Paul Ewart, an atomic and optical physicist at Oxford, describes himself as «pessimistic» about finding God hidden within the uncertainty principle, with or without chaos to lend a helping hand.

It believes the fact of coming into existence, and has thus succeeded in over - coming within itself the uncertainty that corresponds to the nothingness of the antecedent non-being; it believes the «thus» of what has come into existence, and has consequently succeeded in annulling within itself the possible «how.»

Even though the data from PAMELA cover a different energy range from the ATIC signal, Wefel believes that «there is no contradiction between ATIC and PAMELA, at least to within the uncertainties on the presently available data», he told New Scientist.

Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties.

When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.

Note that while the changes appear to lie within the uncertainties quoted, those uncertainties are related solely to the fitting of an regression line and have nothing to do with structural problems and so aren't really commensurate.

In my every day life it is useful even within uncertainties of 10 — 20 % (caused by uncertainty in predicted velocity) when estimating time of arrival.

As you can see, the sustained imbalance must have been a small number (and is well within the uncertainties in the calculation.